ECMWF Day 10 says ... HOLY CRAP!!! ... COLD!!!!!!!

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:52 pm

Day 10 (3 day average for Days 8-10) will make MANY quite happy for those that have been BEGGING for the "arctic chill" ... assuming THIS verifies...

ECMWF Day 8-10 - 3 day average ...

HUGE broadbased trough in the US, with blocking over the Pole compared to last night's eun which had the PV set up there ... and the trough east of Hawaii would serve to kick the trough out East here ... and WOULD indicate a VERY COLD shot of arctic air coming down into the Central US and plunging down into the Southland ... and ALSO the POTENTIAL setup for a SECS/MECS to end Jan/begin Feb ...

Neutral to slight +PNA also indicated on the averages, and a return to a very stormy pattern ... taken at face value ...

I MUST remind everyone that I'm quite suspicious of the Day 6/7 outputs AT THIS TIME ... and IF my assumptions are correct would have HUGE implications on the averages for Days 8-10 ... and thus remain VERY CAUTIOUS ...

SF

JQ Public · #2 Postby **JQ Public** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:55 pm

what do those colors represent temperature wise?

sertorius · #3 Postby **sertorius** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:02 pm

Stormsfury:

Thanks for the map-it finally looks good for the Central Plains!!! I've been hoping this would/will verify as I've been kind of watching this trend for about a week. I sure hope it holds!!! Local mets are now talking about a serious return to winter for my area and this would def. lead credence to that!!! Even talking about snow!! Of course, if the past two years hold true, the run on Saturday will have us in the 40's and all the cold air to the east for this time frame!!! LOL!!!

We shall see!!! Thanks again-your posts are awsome!!!

donsutherland1 · #4 Postby **donsutherland1** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:02 pm

SF,

It is very impressive to say the least. I believe it is more reasonable than yesterday's run given the major teleconnection indices. Certainly, how things evolve will bear watching and this is a breathtaking run if it verifies.

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:04 pm

Oddly enough SF the GFS has been off and on showing this as well in the last several runs. Something very worth watching imo. Either way its nice to see the EC picking up on this which i was gonna mention in another thread as well. Just remember everyone like SF stated above be very cautious with this. Lets see what the next couple of days brings..............I for one do think the coldest of the air will be found in the center of the nation which should bode well for areas farther east with a nice storm track setting up anywhere from the OV to the Eastcoast............

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:04 pm

JQ Public wrote:what do those colors represent temperature wise?

This is the 500mb heights ONLY average for 3 days ... at face value, given the trough with a core of lowered heights (5127m depth with cross-polar flow) ... generally speaking, lower heights, colder temperatures, and on this depiction, that's quite a PLUNGE southward all the way into the DEEP SOUTH ...

ECMWF USA Day 8-10 3 day average view

SF

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:05 pm

IF that verifies, will it get very cold in the East? Will VA get in on it or will there be moderation in the east from it?

-JEB

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:06 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:SF,

It is very impressive to say the least. I believe it is more reasonable than yesterday's run given the major teleconnection indices. Certainly, how things evolve will bear watching and this is a breathtaking run if it verifies.

This 3 day average is the most impressive looking run in regards to an outbreak that I've seen in quite some time that affects more than just the Northern States/NE ...

SF

#9 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:09 pm

Actually, I'd like to see more "normal" temps for us here in the MA. :eek:

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:10 pm

Jeb wrote:IF that verifies, will it get very cold in the East? Will VA get in on it or will there be moderation in the east from it?

-JEB

Forget moderation, especially if the EC gets the Plains Blizzard correct on Day 6/7 ...

SF

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 9:16 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Jeb wrote:IF that verifies, will it get very cold in the East? Will VA get in on it or will there be moderation in the east from it?

-JEB

Forget moderation, especially if the EC gets the Plains Blizzard correct on Day 6/7 ...

SF

Hey SF are you saying that if the EC gets the Plains Blizzard correct on Day 6/7, that we will see MUCH MORE than just Moderation, we will see a lot of warmth in the East? Or are you saying that if the EC gets the Plains Blizzard correct on Day 6/7, that we will be cold as well?

Thanks in advance.

-JEB

PTrackerLA · #12 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Jan 21, 2004 11:38 pm

If that verifies it looks like I would be in the deep freeze down here too but I don't know if I am reading that map right.

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 12:11 am

IF the ECMWF is correct with the Plains Blizzard, we're laying down a foundation of snow cover, and the cold air sweeps southward more readily and DOES NOT modify so quickly ...

BTW, anyone see the 00z GGEM ... MAJOR hit for NC/VA/MD ...

SF

ECMWF Day 10 says ... HOLY CRAP!!! ... COLD!!!!!!!

ECMWF Day 10 says ... HOLY CRAP!!! ... COLD!!!!!!!

Re: ECMWF Day 10 says ... HOLY CRAP!!! ... COLD!!!!!!!

Re: ECMWF Day 10 says ... HOLY CRAP!!! ... COLD!!!!!!!

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