Bob Ryan on CH 4 News here mentioned this could be major....

[Anonymous]

That gives me some more hope.............................

I am staying cautious, but I AM beginning to blast my music again.

I usually listen to Christian music, but I also like Alabama. Their song, "Fallin' Again" I have REALLY REALLY associated with the past THREE DAYS of highs in the upper 20s/Lows ranging from 12 to 19 and with the ice and the very FROZEN GROUND conditions!!

I'm BLASTING IT NOW. If we get snow and it gets plowed, I will be blasting it HARD all during my jebwalk while I walk on the Outer Rim of Potomac Mills Mall.

I have discovered something this winter: 19 degrees is my favorite winter jebwalking temperature. It's best done walking into a 10mph wind or greater!

IF.........we get the snow.............................

Caution is my middle name.


-JEB

[2001kx]

good luck this weekend jeb
you might be finally getting your wish...have fun with it.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Bob change his mind so soon? Last night a 5 he said " NO MAJOR OR BIG STORMS COMING ANYTIME SOON!"

[yoda]

Hey Jeb what time did u hear that on the newscast? Do you know if he said the words, "MAJOR SNOWSTORM" or did he say we could some major snowfall? Thanks... LOOKING FOR SNOW HERE FOR SUN-MON!!!

[Lowpressure]

Hey Jeb what time did u hear that on the newscast? Do you know if he said the words, "MAJOR SNOWSTORM" or did he say we could some major snowfall? Thanks... LOOKING FOR SNOW HERE FOR SUN-MON!!!

I can not tell you about that but, NWS D.C. is going to issue winter weather advisories for Sunday's event. Even the NWS D.C. stated last night that models are trending much colder and the GFS is suggesting up to 7 inches in D.C. metro. I know it's the GFS. Look for advisories. If NWS D.C. is even mentioning high storm totals, we are propbably in line for some sort of accumulations. They usually ere on the side of caution.

[yoda]

They won't issue winter weather advisories this far out... at least... they will probably issue a WSW (Winter Storm Watch) late tomorrow if the models look correct. I am still keeping my preliminary to total of 4-8 inches... but we will see!!

[yoda]

Oh, also, they will only issue a SPS or a Winter Storm Outlook until they get better information.... and trust me tomorrow afternoon or tomrrow night... OR AT THE VERY LATEST Sat. morning they will issue a WSW for our region.

[FLguy]

bob ryan is the personification of an idiot

[yoda]

LOL!!! Very funny, I know, but he seems to be on top of his weather though... he waits until he thinks he is right.... what do you think about this weekends storm FL guy? Any idea of accumulations?

[FLguy]

6"+ from about I-80 on south in PA and NJ to northern VA. the GFS and ETA have been trending wetter with the system. Precip type will be a problem once into northern VA where it could turn into a sizeable ice storm. however that said the GFS was much colder further south then the ETA. on todays 12z run

[yoda]

I live in Springfield VA, Fairfax County, (ZIP 22152) and we are the Northern most county in VA next to Loudoun. We are about 15 minutes from D.C. Do I still get the 6"+ you forecast? Interesting forecast there... I'm thinking 5-10 inches for us here...

[FLguy]

I live in Springfield VA, Fairfax County, (ZIP 22152) and we are the Northern most county in VA next to Loudoun. We are about 15 minutes from D.C. Do I still get the 6"+ you forecast? Interesting forecast there... I'm thinking 5-10 inches for us here...

i agree 5-10" yes, maybe more, but if the ETA is correct there may be some problems with precip type. ratios would also be about 10:1. as thicknesses are marginal. but since the ETA does give you a good .75-1.00" of liquid (the GFS is a bit drier) this isnt going to be no "minor" event.

eta 60hr accumulated precip:



gfs 60hr acc precip:

[yoda]

THANKS FL GUY!!!!

Also, could we see like a good 6" of snow before any precip troubles? Are you suggesting that enough WAA may enter the atmosphere to give us some sleet and frz. rain? I WANT ALL SNOW!!!

THANKS FOR RESPONDING!!

[Lowpressure]

[quote="yoda"]THANKS FL GUY!!!!

Also, could we see like a good 6" of snow before any precip troubles? Are you suggesting that enough WAA may enter the atmosphere to give us some sleet and frz. rain? I WANT ALL SNOW!!!

I am with you, getting tired of that mix precip stuff. I live 50 miles south of you. I want all snow too. Do not really feel it will be a problem this time, maybe late in the event, if at all. I am a little more concerned in Fredericksburg, but not much, I feel we will see all snow in Northern Virginia.

[FLguy]

THANKS FL GUY!!!!

Also, could we see like a good 6" of snow before any precip troubles? Are you suggesting that enough WAA may enter the atmosphere to give us some sleet and frz. rain? I WANT ALL SNOW!!!

I am with you, getting tired of that mix precip stuff. I live 50 miles south of you. I want all snow too. Do not really feel it will be a problem this time, maybe late in the event, if at all. I am a little more concerned in Fredericksburg, but not much, I feel we will see all snow in Northern Virginia.

then pray that the GFS is right. you will start as snow theres no question at least IMO whether the GFS is correct or the ETA ends up being right. now you being 50 miles S of DCA. you could change to frzra or sleet before the precip ends. though yes 6" or more is a decent possibiliy.

[Lowpressure]

FLguy- Half of that previous post was YODA, some how I messed up his quote. The first half of the post is his, the second is mine.

[yoda]

Yeah I know Lowpressure, but I have a feeling that if you are between I-80 in PA and Fredericksburg VA you are goint to get clobbered with at LEAST 6"+.... hey DT (http://www.wxrisk.com) whether u like him or not says the UVVs (am I getting this right?) will be too strong for the WAA to overcome them. He gives the DCA regiona 75% chance for 6" and 50% chance of 12". I think he is a little high, but what do you guys think?

[JCT777]

Yoda - assuming enough WAA doesn't happen to change the precip to ice/rain - or it happens near the end of the storm - then I think 6" to 12" is very possible in your area. Conservatively, I think my area will see 3 to 6 inches. I would not be surprised to see this go higher for my area.

[FLguy]

Yeah I know Lowpressure, but I have a feeling that if you are between I-80 in PA and Fredericksburg VA you are goint to get clobbered with at LEAST 6"+.... hey DT (http://www.wxrisk.com) whether u like him or not says the UVVs (am I getting this right?) will be too strong for the WAA to overcome them. He gives the DCA regiona 75% chance for 6" and 50% chance of 12". I think he is a little high, but what do you guys think?

i agree fully with him. and i dont think hes high at all especially if the ETA is correct. dynamical cooling (strong vertical motions) most definately can overcome strong isentropic lift (warm advection) in the face of a nice ageostrophic wind component.

[jpp5862]

FLGuy, great analysis as always. What are your thoughts on the CAD making it far enough south, and staying in place long enough for south central NC to see some winter weather? Looks like, as usual we could be right on the line. Any thoughts on what we will see and how much?

Thanks