Bob Ryan on CH 4 News here mentioned this could be major....

[FLguy]

FLGuy, great analysis as always. What are your thoughts on the CAD making it far enough south, and staying in place long enough for south central NC to see some winter weather? Looks like, as usual we could be right on the line. Any thoughts on what we will see and how much?

Thanks

well i think you should start out with frozen precip then transition over to rain. were dealing with a shallow layer of cold air here which almost ensures frzra or sleet (you cant get snow with several layers above 950mb well above freezing that the vertical motions cant overcome the warming).

[Anonymous]

I am of course remaining very cautious about this whole thing. If it so much as twitches a hair north, that could very well be the difference between Woodbridge getting about 3 to 5 inches of snow tops, and receiving about 1 to 2 inches snow then picking up a good half-inch of sleet and frzra.

It is going to be very very very close folks.

I am going with 1 to 4 inches of snow then a quarter to half-inch frzra here in Woodbridge, with emphasis on 1 to 2 inches. I am expecting the storm to trend north by late Saturday, so it is with reasonable confidence that I forecast 8 to 15 inches of all snow for Pennsylvania and Maryland as well as for New Jersey. The bullseye will NOT, I repeat, NOT be in N VA with this. I think WAA will play a MAJOR role in p-types in N VA with this event.

Additionally, solar insolation PLUS marginal temps on Sunday (Highs in the upper 30s for highs Sunday) PLUS timing of onset of precip midday to mid afternoon Sunday will GREATLY minimize the impact on roads in N VA due to wholesale melting of snow on contact with roads in well-above freezing temps in N VA well into Sunday night. Watch out though Sunday night with onset of night and associated loss of solar insolation on the roads. The timing of this storm will be EVERYTHING for N VA's roads.

In summary:

Penn, NJ and MD batten down the hatches for a MAJOR EVENT. Modles trending wetter will favor well over a foot of snow for you. Do not be surprised if some places in PA and NJ get clobbered with 15, 16 inches of snow with this. WAA associated with wetter advection will translate to 1, maybe as much as 4 inches in N VA near Woodbridge, before an outright change to sleet then moderate FRZRA, perhaps FRZRA+ resulting in severe ice accums and associated power outages. I stand by my cautious guns with 1 to 2 inches for Woodbridge VA before FRZRA then MAJOR, MAJOR ICE STORM for VA. There will be HORRENDOUS OUTAGES.

Remember folks in N VA onset temps will be above freezing so don't be too concerned about Sunday south of DC, the roads will be wet to maybe a little slushy north. We're going to get off nice and easy snow-wise with this one; its that damn ICE late Sunday night when those temps finally drop below freezing that is going to bedevil us VA denizens. At night tho the snow then frzra will freeze causing probs.

If you live in Penn and NJ I would be scared sh!tless to even try to drive from early Sunday on. Your temps will stay frigid and you will be HAMMERED by heavy snow that will show you no mercy through Monday. Beware in higher terrain; you will be clocked by insane snow rates and very cold temps.


-JEB

[CThomp8806]

What are yalls forecast for central virginia? Ice??

[Cheesy_Poofs]

JEB- Look at DT'S First guess map.....


http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/Verif ... 3-04/1.jpg

[Anonymous]

Remember the rain in Spain stays mainly in the Plain

[Stephanie]

I'd rather the snow than the ice! Good luck to you down in the southern MA!

[yoda]

Hey Jeb, you been looking at the models? In an extreme case if the low were going to move like 150 miles north then you would be right... I know you are being overly cautious... but my forecast gives us here in N VA 5-10 inches.... look at the other sites Jeb...

HEY FL GUY... still forecasting a 6"+ snow amt. for us here in N VA? after checking the latest models?

[Anonymous]

Edit.........................Maybe I will not get a little excited. Models may be trending more rain........

This folks is why I am always so cautious about snow here in VA.



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Now I AM happy about this new arctic front we are getting right now, sure we had a big warm up today, we hit 47, but we drop to 15 tonight then get this: We only hit 25 tomorrow! Then 10 tomorrow night. These temps are very nice folks, don't get me wrong I will really enjoy them to the full................but what we REALLY need is to have these temps on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.


-JEB

[Anonymous]

JEB- Look at DT'S First guess map.....


http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/Verif ... 3-04/1.jpg

BTW DT.......When it comes to Maps you're no slouch. I like what the map indicates for my part of the state, but we need to really be careful here.........today is Thursday, this event is 2 - 3 days away on Sunday.......



-JEB

[yoda]

Jeb I know you are being cautious.... but the UVV's will just be too sharp for a change to ice or ain until the end of the storm... When will you know if we are going to get hit with a big storm this wknd.? Get ready for your Jeb Walk on Sunday with highs of 27-31 and snow accumulations of 5-10"!

[Anonymous]

Jeb I know you are being cautious.... but the UVV's will just be too sharp for a change to ice or ain until the end of the storm... When will you know if we are going to get hit with a big storm this wknd.? Get ready for your Jeb Walk on Sunday with highs of 27-31 and snow accumulations of 5-10"!

Very Cool Name!! I love Star Wars lol.

Anyway, yep if we get 5 to 10 inches of snow here, You can rest assured much will be fine with this particular snow goose lol

It will be plowed and Potomac Mills Mall's parking lot will be beyond breathtaking!

I'll be taking a really thrilling jebwalk. I'll be blasting many Christian and other songs such as Alabama's 'Fallin Again' song on their For The Record album (it has 41 songs on it) including the theme song from Twister, among other songs, during that cool jebwalk.

You say we will have highs ONLY 27 to 31 on Sunday?

COOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh please Snow, PLEASE come to Woodbridge!!! Please give me my big snow!!! Boy THAT will be one heck of a jebwalk..................

I am admittedly beginning to be just a little bit excited, but I am almost afraid to hope...............FIVE TO TEN Inches of snow.............IF we get them, all I can say is WOW......................................

-JEB

[Anonymous]

So anyway FLguy what exactly is going on with this storm? Are we REALLY going to get 5 to 10 inches of snow here in N VA?


-JEB

[Cheesy_Poofs]

JEB-- I'm not DT.

[arlwx]

Jeb,

I agree that the latest model runs (plus my time living in the tongue) say that DC metro (and the Potomac River) gets anywhere from 1" to 4" before the changeover to junk, as the models are trending warmer. Since things are scheduled to occur on Monday the 26th, my Arlington VA driveway forecast is for for the weather to be perverse and give me the full 3" of snow first before the junkmail arrives.

[TBird]

At the 6:00 news, Bob called for 3-6 west and north, 4-8 FAR west and north and mix due south.

Hope he's being cautious and these totals only go up. But, we'll see, still a ways out.

[2001kx]

im in seeing distance of i-80 where i live so i guess im on the line of good snows here in c-pa
but according to the ETA and GFS they both show .75 for my area.
what ratios am i lookin at here?15:1?