18z ETA looking to stick a fork in my snowstorm!

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 3:59 pm

Read it and weep. Still time for adjustments but this i dont like to see at all. Been the same thing all winter. Hopefully the GFS will do better with this. I personally think thier is a fly in the ointment with this run as the bottom map shows! We will see.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:01 pm

KOW...what would this translate for No Va?

Colin · #3 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:04 pm

A change to rain.

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:09 pm

By the looks of the 72hr it still looks like a decent snowevent to perhaps ice???? To be honest im not sure with this model anyways. I have a hard time believing it even more so now after looking at the 72hr just cant see 1/2 + of qpf getting here in 6hrs no less and for the most part a ice storm for here. I would honestly rather have a rain event then all that ice that this run implies. Best wait for the gfs and see what that says............Too many things look wrong on this 18zeta the more i look at it.

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:15 pm

Oh, you just gotta love the ETA's warm bias ...

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:22 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Oh, you just gotta love the ETA's warm bias ...

Good point. Very true of this model. One thing though that it does seem to do better with in THIS area anyways is qpf. Which when looking at that implies a very huge hit for here. And dont anyone remind me of how wet this model usually is. Perhaps thats the case where you are at but not here. If it is off its usually not by much for here anyways....

li-mike · #7 Postby **li-mike** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:32 pm

As with evey other storm this year it is gonna be more north than you thought and wetter than you thought. Northern Coastal NJ, LI, and SRN Ct. will be in the target zone again. Sorry To the SRN Mid-Atlantic members but come on you live in the South what do ya expect

Mike

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:35 pm

WAIT, does that mean that my area of Northern Ocean County, 15 miles from the coast will see the most again

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:46 pm

Maybe...I wouldn't say the most though.

powderfreak · #10 Postby **powderfreak** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:55 pm

king of weather wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Oh, you just gotta love the ETA's warm bias ...

Good point. Very true of this model. One thing though that it does seem to do better with in THIS area anyways is qpf. Which when looking at that implies a very huge hit for here. And dont anyone remind me of how wet this model usually is. Perhaps thats the case where you are at but not here. If it is off its usually not by much for here anyways....

That is a very impressive swath of precip.

Skywatch_NC · #11 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:58 pm

li-mike wrote:As with evey other storm this year it is gonna be more north than you thought and wetter than you thought. Northern Coastal NJ, LI, and SRN Ct. will be in the target zone again. Sorry To the SRN Mid-Atlantic members but come on you live in the South what do ya expect

Mike

Well, anything can happen in the world of weather, Wxbud. :wink:

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 5:03 pm

li-mike wrote:As with evey other storm this year it is gonna be more north than you thought and wetter than you thought. Northern Coastal NJ, LI, and SRN Ct. will be in the target zone again. Sorry To the SRN Mid-Atlantic members but come on you live in the South what do ya expect

Mike

Well i highly doubt this will trend any farther north then it has already. IMO it looks like a very good hit of Snow for Ohio About i70 north into PA and northern MD and up to NYC. DC is riding a fine line right now between a ton of snow or a snow to big ice event. Looks like the GFS wants to now favor the low behind the Sun/Mon system??????Something here isnt making any sence.

#13 Postby **FLguy** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 5:06 pm

li-mike wrote:As with evey other storm this year it is gonna be more north than you thought and wetter than you thought. Northern Coastal NJ, LI, and SRN Ct. will be in the target zone again. Sorry To the SRN Mid-Atlantic members but come on you live in the South what do ya expect

Mike

your exactly right, the trend all last winter was to bring systems further north as we got closer to verification time than what was implied by the models 2-3 days out. but that siad i do think the ETA may be a little too aggressive.

#14 Postby **FLguy** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 5:07 pm

most everyone will start with snow in VA and then well begin to see the transition over to mixed precip. the CAD is going to be hard to scour out.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 5:07 pm

King, just tell me that my area of Northern Ocean County in NJ will see all snow and a heavy total to go with it 6-10? I have ben waiting for 10 inches ever since last year.

thstorm87 · #16 Postby **thstorm87** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:00 pm

so a change to ice perhaps in dc, how is it looking for philly?

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:25 pm

More snow less ice, maybe nearly all snow in Philly with 6 to 12 inches of accumulation.

-JEB

thstorm87 · #18 Postby **thstorm87** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:27 pm

wow 6-12 would be nice, but I just hear gary gray say 1-2 in philly. Big difference????

#19 Postby **FLguy** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:29 pm

thstorm87 wrote:wow 6-12 would be nice, but I just hear gary gray say 1-2 in philly. Big difference????

he needs to fire his crack dealer.

thstorm87 · #20 Postby **thstorm87** » Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:31 pm

why? is 6-12 really a good possiblility around philly, especially considering the biggest storm in philly so far has been only 4.8 on dec 5th.

18z ETA looking to stick a fork in my snowstorm!

18z ETA looking to stick a fork in my snowstorm!

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