1/22/04 ECMWF Day 8-10 average ... FRIGID!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

ECMWF Day 8-10 3 day average ...

Literally drops the PV into MN/WI -- Cross-polar flow, Greenland Block? (albeit NOT what I expected to see) and a relatively neutral PNA pattern ... however, NOTICE THE FLOW AROUND THE WORLD ... THIS LOOKS VERY FAST ... can we say potential for continued storminess? ...

[FLguy]

ECMWF Day 8-10 3 day average ...

Literally drops the PV into MN/WI -- Cross-polar flow, Greenland Block? (albeit NOT what I expected to see) and a relatively neutral PNA pattern ... however, NOTICE THE FLOW AROUND THE WORLD ... THIS LOOKS VERY FAST ... can we say potential for continued storminess? ...

the PNA is trying to come back positive. notice the low getting set up near the Aleutians which pumps the ridge downstream. it still has strong blocking across the davis strait and labrador (its a retrograding block so well have to see where it ends up down the road). not to mention the cross polar flow. thats a hell of a ridge up near the caspian.

the PV looks as if its going to split with once piece heading northwest and the other being forced into the lakes. but well have to see. the 50/50 low is still there albeit displaced somewhat. and the trough is in scandinavia which teleconnects to a trough in the EUS. only problem is height rises are taking place near spain which would obviously argue for a weak or flat ridge off the southeast coast ---- however with the strong blocking its going to be hard to do so.

the NAO looks to remain negative right through the period.

[Stormsfury]

I was definitely shocked to see the Greenland block set up WEST of Greenland, instead of the Greenland/Icelandic Block that's been depicted in the last few days of the ECMWF...

IMHO, this run ... if correct ... doesn't want the let go of the cold just yet ... and IF the pattern verifies, there COULD be something for the Southland to get excited about down the road ...

Right now, it DOESN'T look to be historic cold but still FRIGID ...

SF

[Chris the Weather Man]

THATS COLD! Could we see another 1985 or 1994 arctic outbreak?!

[FLguy]

its by far a MUCH colder pattern for much of the nation east of the rockies outside of the northeast. but still cold nonetheless in the northeast as well.

[Stormsfury]

THATS COLD! Could we see another 1985 or 1994 arctic outbreak?!

Don't think so, but it's more widespread of a cold outbreak, and more locations in the Southland would get into it ... per EC ...

SF

[Anonymous]

About the COLD I am beginning to be quite excited, and I am beginning to wonder what this could mean with all the STORMINESS going on............

I can dimly see a picture of most of the CONUS E of the Rockies with snowcover and blowing snow, and of jebwalks that begin to challenge even me...................

Man with this cold set-up AND STORMINESS, it could set up one heck of a BIIIIIIG STORM next month!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

COME ON, BABY!!!!! GIVE ME MY 36 INCHES!!!!!!!!

EVERYONE PRAY FOR BIG, BIG SNOW!!!!!!!! PRAY FOR FRIGID COLD AND MAYBE HISTORIC COLD!!!! HEY, IF YOU LIVE UP NORTH AND YOU CAN' T HANG WITH THIS CHILLY PROGRAM, THEN MOVE YOUR @SS SOUTH!!!

WE WANT HISTORIC COLD!!
WE WANT HISTORIC SNOW AND DRIFTING!!!

LIFE IS SHORT!!! PRAY HARD FOR HISTORIC COLD AND SNOW!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NO MERCY!!!! NONE!!!!!

[FLguy]

the EC also implies a bit of a modified -WPO which would support the more widespread cold theory. notice the block heading back toward eastern siberia.

the GFS however is still forecasting the WPO near neutral over the next 13 days:



heres a graphic of whats normal (500mb height and temp wise) for the WPO. just picture the reverse of what you see for the negative phase:



the WPO is a very important teleconnection that is often overlooked in MR forecasting.

[FLguy]

THATS COLD! Could we see another 1985 or 1994 arctic outbreak?!

its not along the lines of the Regan outbreak if thats what your Referring to

[FLguy]

not to mention the sub-tropical trough is still east of hawaii with a split flow across the eastern PAC. this is a VERY fun pattern.

[Stormsfury]

not to mention the sub-tropical trough is still east of hawaii with a split flow across the eastern PAC. this is a VERY fun pattern.

And would also force the troughing to come back east as well ..

Speculation --- IF a discreet s/w slides under in the southern stream and is FAR enough south not to be crushed/sheared out, the PV in WI/MN is in decent position to allow something to come up the coast ...

Basically speaking, the cold is there, and one well placed s/w has tremendous potential ...

SF

[FLguy]

not to mention the sub-tropical trough is still east of hawaii with a split flow across the eastern PAC. this is a VERY fun pattern.

And would also force the troughing to come back east as well ..

Speculation --- IF a discreet s/w slides under in the southern stream and is FAR enough south not to be crushed/sheared out, the PV in WI/MN is in decent position to allow something to come up the coast ...

Basically speaking, the cold is there, and one well placed s/w has tremendous potential ...

SF

or we drop the PV and phase it w/ the STJ s/w. ala march 01.

[Stormsfury]

or we drop the PV and phase it w/ the STJ s/w. ala march 01.

I still hear the screams from the NE corridor on that one ...

SF

[FLguy]

or we drop the PV and phase it w/ the STJ s/w. ala march 01.

I still hear the screams from the NE corridor on that one ...

SF

screams, more like mass Suicides.
.

[Anonymous]

not to mention the sub-tropical trough is still east of hawaii with a split flow across the eastern PAC. this is a VERY fun pattern.

And would also force the troughing to come back east as well ..

Speculation --- IF a discreet s/w slides under in the southern stream and is FAR enough south not to be crushed/sheared out, the PV in WI/MN is in decent position to allow something to come up the coast ...

Basically speaking, the cold is there, and one well placed s/w has tremendous potential ...

SF

Can we say, JEB gets his 36 inches of snow, complete with winds to blow it all over the place amid 15-foot drifts?!!!

[Anonymous]

Beautiful winter weather tonight in N VA...............we are down to 28 with dewpoints to 6 degrees............N winds 12 to 21 with gusts to 29mph.

The breezes are refreshing and cool and we should cool down to a decent low of 15 or so, then enjoy spectacular weather tomorrow afternoon with a crisp high of about 25.



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

That's another thing that the moisture will have to initially overcome ... very dry SFC air ...

SF

[FLguy]

That's another thing that the moisture will have to initially overcome ... very dry SFC air ...

SF

that shouldint be much of a problem. this thing is LOADED with gulf moisture. it would not take long to saturate the column.

[Stormsfury]

That's another thing that the moisture will have to initially overcome ... very dry SFC air ...

SF

that shouldint be much of a problem. this thing is LOADED with gulf moisture. it would not take long to saturate the column.

Oh, I know ... which would have 2 possible effects ...

1) decent enough CAD and continual feed of cold, dry air at the SFC continues to allow temperatures to drop through diabatic processes.
2) moisture and WAA advection totally overwhelms the cold, dry air, and only allows for a moderate drop in temperatures before WAA, and latent heat release takes over ...

Another reason why CAD events are so difficult to prog ...

SF

[FLguy]

That's another thing that the moisture will have to initially overcome ... very dry SFC air ...

SF

that shouldint be much of a problem. this thing is LOADED with gulf moisture. it would not take long to saturate the column.

Oh, I know ... which would have 2 possible effects ...

1) decent enough CAD and continual feed of cold, dry air at the SFC continues to allow temperatures to drop through diabatic processes.
2) moisture and WAA advection totally overwhelms the cold, dry air, and only allows for a moderate drop in temperatures before WAA, and latent heat release takes over ...

Another reason why CAD events are so difficult to prog ...

SF

the strong UVM will fight off the WAA initially as well as evaporational processes but once we start getting saturated layers close to or above freezing theres going to be problems.