1/22/04 ECMWF Day 8-10 average ... FRIGID!!!!!!!

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Anonymous

#21 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:03 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
FLguy wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:That's another thing that the moisture will have to initially overcome ... very dry SFC air ...

SF


that shouldint be much of a problem. this thing is LOADED with gulf moisture. it would not take long to saturate the column.


Oh, I know ... which would have 2 possible effects ...

1) decent enough CAD and continual feed of cold, dry air at the SFC continues to allow temperatures to drop through diabatic processes.
2) moisture and WAA advection totally overwhelms the cold, dry air, and only allows for a moderate drop in temperatures before WAA, and latent heat release takes over ...

Another reason why CAD events are so difficult to prog ...

SF




****JEB groans at the thought of all his precious, hard-won snow changing to all rain through latent heat release!!!!! GROANS!! GROANS!!!****
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#22 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:06 pm

the strong UVM will fight off the WAA initially as well as evaporational processes but once we start getting saturated layers close to or above freezing theres going to be problems.


That's why once it's go time, the SREF, and the mesoscale models will handle the event the best ... just for such discreet features.

SF
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#23 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:08 pm

the ETA is coming in wet again as expected. has a nice area of strong negative omegas over the ohio valley at 66hrs.

Image

but because the jet is lifting up, the STJ s/w is forced to weaken as it encounters the ridging.

Image
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#24 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:09 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
the strong UVM will fight off the WAA initially as well as evaporational processes but once we start getting saturated layers close to or above freezing theres going to be problems.


That's why once it's go time, the SREF, and the mesoscale models will handle the event the best ... just for such discreet features.

SF


and to give us a rough ideas as to where CSI bands will set up.
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#25 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:11 pm

Wow ...

ETA 60 hour p-type progs .. fits with my ideas nicely ...

Image

SF
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Anonymous

#26 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:12 pm

How does Woodbridge look as far as a CSI band setting up shop there?




-Jeb, looking hopefully toward the pro weather folks for encouragement
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#27 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:12 pm

But a little too aggressive IMHO, with the warm surge at the SFC ..

Image

SF
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#28 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:14 pm

just typical ETA error.
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#29 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:15 pm

but im really becoming concerned about the northern ohio valley for sig icing and heavy snows further north say in the CLE area.
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#30 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:20 pm

FLguy wrote:just typical ETA error.


Yep ... generally useless beyond 48 hours ...
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Anonymous

#31 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:27 pm

Arctic air continues to flow into Woodbridge VA on strong NNE winds at 17 to 24 mph with gusts to 32mph!!!!!

The temperature continues to fall!!!!!!

Now 26 degrees with a dewpoint of 5 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT!!! IT JUST FELL TO 25 DEGREES!!! WOOOO-HOOOO!!!!!

WOW!!! NNE GUST TO 35MPH!!!! YEAH!!!

DEWPOINT JUST FELL TO 4 DEGREES!!!

BRING IT BABY!!!! BRING IT!!!! :)



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NO MERCY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by Anonymous on Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#32 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:29 pm

0z ETA at 72hrs SLAMS E PA/NJ and NYC area. note the strong negative omega indicative of extremely intense vertical motions in the H7 layer.

Image

the -10C isotherm at h85 runs right through the region which means that the dendrite layer is fairly low and the best negative omegas are likely coninciding with it. this would indicate a favorable environment for crystal growth and maximized ratios.

Image

meanwhile 1000-500mb thicknesses are between 534 and 528 across PA and NHJ which would imply snow liquid ratios of ~12 to 17:1.

Image
Last edited by FLguy on Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#33 Postby FLguy » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:31 pm

furthermore the 0z run tonight is MUCH stronger with the s/w than the 18z run earlier this afternoon:

Image
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Anonymous

#34 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:33 pm

YOU SURE you guys aren't professional mets that work for the NWS?



-JEB
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#35 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:38 pm

Jeb wrote:YOU SURE you guys aren't professional mets that work for the NWS?

-JEB


Well, Not I ... :wink:

Some of the CHS WFO mets are using my site a lot for model data, guidance, and current obs. .. Does that count? :lol:

SF
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Anonymous

#36 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:38 pm

Check out Weatha Punk's (on WWBB) map for this event on Sunday.

I really like his map a lot. That would really be a nice snow for Woodbridge.



-JEB
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#37 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:40 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
Jeb wrote:YOU SURE you guys aren't professional mets that work for the NWS?

-JEB


Well, Not I ... :wink:

Some of the CHS WFO mets are using my site a lot for model data, guidance, and current obs. .. Does that count? :lol:

SF




Yes, I think it does count. I need to study your site a LOT more!!!! :)



-JEB
Last edited by Anonymous on Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous

#38 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:42 pm

FLguy wrote:0z ETA at 72hrs SLAMS E PA/NJ and NYC area. note the strong negative omega indicative of extremely intense vertical motions in the H7 layer.

Image

the -10C isotherm at h85 runs right through the region which means that the dendrite layer is fairly low and the best negative omegas are likely coninciding with it. this would indicate a favorable environment for crystal growth and maximized ratios.

Image

meanwhile 1000-500mb thicknesses are between 534 and 528 across PA and NHJ which would imply snow liquid ratios of ~12 to 17:1.

Image




It would appear that my initial prog forecast for PA and NJ to get 10 to 16 inches may not have been that far-off after all...........

.........not bad for an inexperienced novice weather weenie like myself!



-JEB
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#39 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Thu Jan 22, 2004 10:45 pm

10- 16 inches?!?! Jeb! That is not going to happen.......... Maybe 8-12 Inches. but 12-18 inches of snow. I WISH!
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