NWS FORT WORTH TX FRI JAN 23 2004

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2004

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS BAJA
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND ADVECT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
IN THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IMPROVE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WE DON'T EXPECT A WIDE-SPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DUE TO LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING AND SHEAR. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN ALL ZONES SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH...THIS EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER FOR
THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE EAST...AND ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...COULD PICK UP AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ALL PRECIP SHOULD END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COLDER. THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AND COOL HIGHS
INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BEGINNING THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL LOWER TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS TIME...WE DON'T SEE
ANY PRECIP WHILE THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.

[timNms]

"AT THIS TIME...WE DON'T SEE
ANY PRECIP WHILE THE COLD AIR IS IN PLACE."

That STINKS, huh?

[sertorius]

I feel your pain!! We were forcasted to have a pretty good snow early this week-now KC is in for ice-Me, 30 miles to the west is in for rain, brief freezing rain then rain again tomorrow-slight chance of snow as the real cold air moves in end of the week, but no real heavy snow threat!! They're even beginning to downplay the cold a bit-it will be cold-highs in the teens and lows in the single digits, but nothing like they were discussing yesterday!! Weather can change on a dime!!!