AREA OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION (AND TOTALS) SUN-MON EVENT:

[FLguy]

you can plot the cities along with me using microsoft streets or other program to get a better idea of where i feel the heaviest accumulations will occur.

6-10 inches locally 12": Akron OH --- east to scranton PA then southeast to NYC on the northern side. then on the southern side cape may NJ west southwest to staunton VA, then west northwest to summersville WV, on northeast to clarksburg WV and back northwest to Akron.

south and west of this area there will be problems with significant sleet and frzra with heavy ice accumulations LIKELY.

high snow liquid ratios to start with low dendrite layers (the -10C isotherm at H85 runs right across central PA and down the apps as the event begins which would imply a rather low dendrite layer (the -12C to -15C layer) across central and northeast PA will contribute to heavier accumulations even in spite of slightly less QPF.

[Anonymous]

so 6-10 for my area of Northern Ocean County in central NJ. Would you say more like 6 or more like 10?

[Colin]

We'll see...shift that highest accumulation area south about 50 miles IMO.

[Dj3]

thanks for the info flguy. So would pittsburgh be included in your area of 6-10" and do you see a change over to rain occuring on monday? thanks i appreciate your help!

[FLguy]

We'll see...shift that highest accumulation area south about 50 miles IMO.

and you support this how

[Dr Spectrum]

you can plot the cities along with me using microsoft streets or other program to get a better idea of where i feel the heaviest accumulations will occur.

6-10 inches locally 12": Akron OH --- east to scranton PA then southeast to NYC on the northern side.

Heh, I'm about 14 miles West of Akron - However, I'll be right on top of Akron Saturday Night and Sunday Night (Hospital Night shifts in a Data Center - 24/7) At least I have access to the internet AND the outside to see the action!!

[Colin]

We'll see...shift that highest accumulation area south about 50 miles IMO.

and you support this how

model trends...i should be DEFININTLEY out of it by now.....

[thstorm87]

I have to agree with colon on this one, noway 6-12 falls in that large of an area, an very unlikely up near nyc. and prob more like 3-6 for philly.

[Colin]

I completely agree...but you can't disagree completely with a professional met.

[Anonymous]

I have to agree with colon on this one, noway 6-12 falls in that large of an area, an very unlikely up near nyc. and prob more like 3-6 for philly.

I disagree completely. 6-10 seems like the general rule. How could you not think that 6-10 could not fall in such a large area?

[thstorm87]

easy, because the only model calling for that much is eta. no other model support.

[Anonymous]

you can plot the cities along with me using microsoft streets or other program to get a better idea of where i feel the heaviest accumulations will occur.

6-10 inches locally 12": Akron OH --- east to scranton PA then southeast to NYC on the northern side. then on the southern side cape may NJ west southwest to staunton VA, then west northwest to summersville WV, on northeast to clarksburg WV and back northwest to Akron.

south and west of this area there will be problems with significant sleet and frzra with heavy ice accumulations LIKELY.

high snow liquid ratios to start with low dendrite layers (the -10C isotherm at H85 runs right across central PA and down the apps as the event begins which would imply a rather low dendrite layer (the -12C to -15C layer) across central and northeast PA will contribute to heavier accumulations even in spite of slightly less QPF.

FLguy......................I would expect something like this to come from a weenie like myself, NOT a real professional such as YOU.

I would like an immediate explanation as to why you even think that much snow will fall over that LARGE an area!!!!!

We are all waiting......................


-JEB!!!!!

[verycoolnin]

I like how everyone with a computer and atleast one hand makes predictions on snow totals. Yes, that includes myself. I'm not going to call snow and ice accumulations just yet but likely in a day or so. There is still some uncertainty to how much warm air will actually enter the system. But right now I'm saying all of VA will sustain frozen precip except for extreme E and SE VA, like VA Beach and the Eastern Shore.

[FLguy]

you can plot the cities along with me using microsoft streets or other program to get a better idea of where i feel the heaviest accumulations will occur.

6-10 inches locally 12": Akron OH --- east to scranton PA then southeast to NYC on the northern side. then on the southern side cape may NJ west southwest to staunton VA, then west northwest to summersville WV, on northeast to clarksburg WV and back northwest to Akron.

south and west of this area there will be problems with significant sleet and frzra with heavy ice accumulations LIKELY.

high snow liquid ratios to start with low dendrite layers (the -10C isotherm at H85 runs right across central PA and down the apps as the event begins which would imply a rather low dendrite layer (the -12C to -15C layer) across central and northeast PA will contribute to heavier accumulations even in spite of slightly less QPF.

FLguy......................I would expect something like this to come from a weenie like myself, NOT a real professional such as YOU.

I would like an immediate explanation as to why you even think that much snow will fall over that LARGE an area!!!!!

We are all waiting......................


-JEB!!!!!

your not blind look at the ETA --- oh and one other thing, i ask you this, what model was the first one to correctly predict the event last weekend when all others showed the heaviest QPF supressed well to the south.

[FLguy]

ill make an adjustement tomorrow night if i feel im going to be wrong. i have been known to be wrong before.

[Anonymous]

Okay FLguy----------------Your prediction is accepted.

One question though........................


Is Woodbridge in your heavy snow area?



-JEB

[BL03]

your not blind look at the ETA --- oh and one other thing, i ask you this, what model was the first one to correctly predict the event last weekend when all others showed the heaviest QPF supressed well to the south.

True! TRUE! I remember lots of storms (Dec 5) that were SUPPOSE to go south but came 50 or so miles up and busted forecasts all over the place!

[FLguy]

Okay FLguy----------------Your prediction is accepted.

One question though........................


Is Woodbridge in your heavy snow area?



-JEB

yes jeb it is.

[FLguy]

your not blind look at the ETA --- oh and one other thing, i ask you this, what model was the first one to correctly predict the event last weekend when all others showed the heaviest QPF supressed well to the south.

True! TRUE! I remember lots of storms (Dec 5) that were SUPPOSE to go south but came 50 or so miles up and busted forecasts all over the place!

if your talking about DEC 5 of 2002 your exactly right.

[Stormchaser16]

Great analysis as always!

For those who are visual learners like myself......






FLguy, let me know if any changes need to be made, and they will be done! (Map plotted using FLguy's cities and then filled)