AREA OF HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION (AND TOTALS) SUN-MON EVENT:

[Stormchaser16]

Ahhh well red X

Link:

http://community.webshots.com/scripts/e ... ity=UpeDvN

There ya go, thats my own estimate of FLguy's analysis

[BL03]

your not blind look at the ETA --- oh and one other thing, i ask you this, what model was the first one to correctly predict the event last weekend when all others showed the heaviest QPF supressed well to the south.

True! TRUE! I remember lots of storms (Dec 5) that were SUPPOSE to go south but came 50 or so miles up and busted forecasts all over the place!

if your talking about DEC 5 of 2002 your exactly right.

YES!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Okay FLguy----------------Your prediction is accepted.

One question though........................


Is Woodbridge in your heavy snow area?



-JEB

yes jeb it is.

OMIGOSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


***Jeb feels woozy and nearly keels over from shock!!! Paramedics have to be called to examine Jeb, who is afraid he might have a heart attack from WAY WAY TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Just the thought of a 10-inch snow jebwalk on the Mall almost made Jeb faint. Paramedics surrounded Jeb on all sides and ran numerous tests. Jeb is still breathing irregularly and having trouble sitting up due to the horrific realization of the possibility of ten inches of snow in Woodbridge VA lol.***

[FLguy]

YES!!!!!!

this however is somewhat different of a situation though.

OMIGOSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


***Jeb feels woozy and nearly keels over from shock!!! Paramedics have to be called to examine Jeb, who is afraid he might have a heart attack from WAY WAY TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT!!! Just the thought of a 10-inch snow jebwalk on the Mall almost made Jeb faint. Paramedics surrounded Jeb on all sides and ran numerous tests. Jeb is still breathing irregularly and having trouble sitting up due to the horrific realization of the possibility of ten inches of snow in Woodbridge VA lol.***

Jeb 6-10" implies that between 6 and 10 inches is expected to fall. you will probably see somewhere in between. but SOME places will see much higher accumulations. its possible that a few locations see 10 or 12" as well but NO MORE THAN THAT

[FLguy]

Ahhh well red X

Link:

http://community.webshots.com/scripts/e ... ity=UpeDvN

There ya go, thats my own estimate of FLguy's analysis

thanks, but the link still isnt working.

[BL03]

How much you think for NYC? I am thinking around 6"

[Stormchaser16]

Sorry about that. Posted the editors link not public link.

Here is the correct link.

http://community.webshots.com/photo/113 ... 5514UpeDvN

[FLguy]

your not blind look at the ETA --- oh and one other thing, i ask you this, what model was the first one to correctly predict the event last weekend when all others showed the heaviest QPF supressed well to the south.

True! TRUE! I remember lots of storms (Dec 5) that were SUPPOSE to go south but came 50 or so miles up and busted forecasts all over the place!

if your talking about DEC 5 of 2002 your exactly right.

YES!!!!!!

heres another look at accumulations from the DEC 5, 2002 event.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/storms/12052002.html

[Colin]

That looks good to me!

[paulvogel]

this is what woody wrote at the nws at 2130
usually they do an nowupdate but he mentioned sun mon

Sunday looking like the most interesting winter event so far this
season. Suspect a wtch will be issued west/ the 4 am release. Stay
tuned...

[FLguy]

well the new ETA continues to support my ideas. and is still consistent in bringing heavy precip well into central PA as it HAS BEEN since this event came in range of the model.



notice the strong rising air motions over central and southern PA at 54 hours.

[FLguy]

and decent ratios across central PA. probably ~12:1 with a low dendrite layer. the -12C isotherm at H85 runs RIGHT through central and northern PA. along with a tight thermal gradient at H85 indicative of strong low level frontogenesis.



and for the 48hr precip totals ...drum roll please...



well there you have it ---- .75" of liquid well up into central PA.

how about that for a shift further south with the heaviest QPF on the 0z run??

[BL03]

NICE! A nice line from central PA -C NJ - To NYC than south!!

[FLguy]

yep which is what i outlined in my forecast.

[Anonymous]

With that .75 qpf, wherever it remains all snow will see 10 to 12 easily; I think there could be a 14-inch lollipop somewhere in N VA, MD or PA.

Somebody is gonna have a LOT of shoveling to do.........................






-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Looks Good, FLguy! Dang, I thought it said Dec 5th 2003! lol. But Dec 5th 2002, was not bad.......

[FLguy]

With that .75 qpf, wherever it remains all snow will see 10 to 12 easily; I think there could be a 14-inch lollipop somewhere in N VA, MD or PA.

Somebody is gonna have a LOT of shoveling to do.........................






-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i dont know about totals over a foot. but amounts up to a foot would probably occur under CSI bands wherever they set up. given the tight thermal gradient there will be an area of good frontogenesis which could help enhance or prolong CSI.

[Anonymous]

Then PRAY that Woodbridge/Dale City will get stuck under a good CSI band for a while during the storm!!!!!!!!!!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YEAH!!!!!!!

[FLguy]

Then PRAY that Woodbridge/Dale City will get stuck under a good CSI band for a while during the storm!!!!!!!!!!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!! BRING IT!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YEAH!!!!!!!

jeb i should also probably remind you that woodbridge (and areas sotuhwest of DCA) will be first to see a changover to mixed precip after the period of heavy snow.

[Stormchaser16]

ETA now drastically backing off precip from PHL north. Hardly 6+ inches for the WHOLE event.......

This precip is going to have a hard time with the dry arctic air in place, with that said, i will lower my amounts for PHL north to 4-8" just north of the city, 3-5" for CNJ and 2-4" for NNJ(NYC also).