Winter storm Watch and Cold wx discussion

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good weekend everyone. It's been a busy morning so far, which is just a warmup to what we'll see on Sunday. The precipitation experienced this morning across DC and Baltimore was all snow. Most areas southwest of DC ended up with nothing. However 2 inches of snow fell here in central Maryland in Essex and snow has pretty much shut off here for the time being. It's cold though in the upper teens to lower 20s. So champaigne powdery type snow is what we're dealing with in through here.

The next storm moving into the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic will be even wetter with heavy frozen precipitation expected. Let's start off this discusssion with a look at some of the models this morning.

ETA 24-60 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif

GFS 24-60 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060s.gif

In addition to the future progress of this winter storm, a look at current watches/warnings are down below and it covers widespread territory from the Ohio Valley to the Middle Atlantic region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

There will be severe weather and possible tornadoes in southern and southeast Texas today into this evening. That's just another element to this storm system before it even goes onto winter storm mode later tonight through the day on Sunday.

By Sunday morning, a well developed low pressure system will move slowly northeastward and strengthen to 996 mb. There will be warm air and moisture advecting in from the south into this cold arctic air already in place across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic. As a result, significant wintry precipitation is expected. Freezing rain and sleet will likely affect places from Kansas City to St Louis to the area near Muncie, Indiana and Dayton, Ohio. For Kansas City, MO, an icestorm warning is in effect. For St Louis, MO, A winter storm warning is in effect for tonight through Sunday. A prolonged freezing rain event is likely in both these places with ice accumulations on the order of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Some places within this swath could see over 1/2 inch of ice tonight into Sunday. This will make travel nearly impossible and power outages are a real possibility due to the weight of the ice. Same can be said further east into Indianapolis, Indiana and Dayton, Ohio where a few inches of snow later tonight into Sunday morning will change over to ice. Ice accumulation could be over 1/4 inch thick from central Indiana, and Central Ohio southward to the Ohio River. The Ohio Valley area including the bluegrass state of Kentucky are now under winter storm watches for Sunday. Areas north of the icezone will see potential snow amounts of 3-6 inches just through Sunday. This will include Fort Wayne, Indiana and Mansfield and Toledo, Ohio. Winter storm watch is in effect for you guys as well. More significant wintry precip is possible Monday and Tuesday for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.

Further east, it's already been an interesting morning for the Baltimore and DC area as well as Philly with the snow courtesy of the alberta clipper. 2 inches fell here in southeast Baltimore County in Essex. That brings us up to 14 inches for the 2003-2004 winter season and we'll add 6 more inches on top of that by later Sunday and Sunday night courtesy of this sdame winter storm. By Sunday morning, expect snow to develop across western North Carolina and into most of Virginia including the tidewater area of Virginia. Snow will mix with or changeover to ice or rain depending on where you are. For example, in Virginia Beach, precip will start as snow early in the day Sunday before changing over to sleet or rain. About 1 inch of snow is expected for the Virginia tidewater before the changeover occurs. A winter weather advisory maybe needed for parts of the tidewater and especially into the peninsula. I 64 from Richmond to Norfolk will be hazardous with snow turning to a sheet of ice.

Meanwhile further inland, we got bigger problems that don't only affect travel, but potentially our power as we head on through time. This would include places such as Richmond, Virginia, Ashville, North Carolina, Hickory, North Carolina, and Raleigh, North Carolina where some snow will be followed by a very dangerous and possibly crippling icestorm. For Hickory, Ashville, and Raleigh, snow accumulation will be minimal. However sleet accumulation of 1-2 inches and frez rain ice accreation accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch is quite possible. This entire area including the triad and the triangle area are under winter storm watches to account for this threat. Further north into Richmond and Petersburg, VA, Snow is likely Sunday morning and lasting for most of the day before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1-3 inches of snow is expected for the Richmond area followed by ice accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch possible. Snow with ice on top of that will no doubt cause travel problems. In addition some places oin this icestorm zone will possibly experience power outages at times. There is a tremendous cold air mass moving south as moisture and warmer air moves overtop that denser shallower colder surface. That's why the icestorm and the potential of a prolonged icestorm for Virginia and the Carolinas Sunday into Sunday evening.

Further north into Baltimore, DC, Philly, and New York, a full fledged motherload of snow will accumulate. You think this clipper was bad in Baltimore and Philly??? You haven't seen anything yet. Keep an eye on this after noon Sunday for DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia where a winter storm watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon and night. Snow will accumulate 4-8 inches in Baltimore and Philadelphia and possibly 3-6 inches in Washington DC with 2-4 inches possible in Fredricksburg, Virginia. The DC and Fredricksburg will eventually changeover to sleet and freezing rain. However Baltimore and Philly will likely stay all snow Sunday through Sunday night. More mixed precip could come in early in the week as a second storm system moves through. However for New York City, their snowstorm will come on Sunday night and last right through Tuesday the way it stands now. Snow could be heavy at times and accumulate several inches. This along with wind will cause blowing snow issues for the big apple. Same can be said across central PA and into New York state as well.

In addition to this wintry weather, it will be very cold as cold arctic air moves south and plows into all this moisture. Part of the reason for this is what is known as a greenland block where high pressure aloft dominates Greenland and deposits cold arctic air from the north pole straight down into the United States as oppose to missing the United States altogether. As a result, very cold temps will be widespread over the next two weeks and could get even more dangerous with time as cold air could get worse with the increased snow pack or refrigeration if you will. This will also mean better chances for winter storm conditions over the next few weeks, which must be monitored.

It's a busy weekend folks. More updates on this storm coming up later tonight. In the meantime, stay warm, and keep it safe out there. Stay tuned.

Jim

[Lowpressure]

NWS Fredericksburg calling for 5-9 inches of snow changing to sleet Monday a.m.

[Stephanie]

We had about 1.5" of snow from the clipper. the snow ended about 45 minutes ago.

Currently a WSW is up for my area as you noted Jim for 3 - 8 inches of snow Sunday afternoon - Sunday night. That's a pretty wide range - it's usually given as 2 - 4", 3 - 6", 4 - 8 inches, etc. TWC (I know) has the snow icons for Monday & Tuesday with wind on Tuesday. I think that the WSW will have to be extended.

Thanks for a great summary as usual Jim!

[mdguy25]

Jim great discussion, I disagree with DC if anything they see more than Philly and B-more though close to B-more I see both in the 6 to 10 area. Philly slightly less.. Jackpot right now Cen. No. VA..

[Anonymous]

6-10 seems very likely for sunday into monday. Don't forget these three factors: 1- the ocean temps will be cold enough to support all snow or mostly snow along the immediate coast. 2- there is plenty of very cold air in place. 3- this is a storm from the gulf of mexico with tony of moisture. This is no clipper, its a big storm. so to say anything less than 6-10 would be to conservative.

right now, my thinking is upwords of 7 to 9 inches of snow. and possibly adding to that on tuesday.

[Anonymous]

i ment tons of moisture...

[Colin]

I just don't see how it can stay south giving me only 2-4"...but that's what many people are forecasting. Oh well.

[RU848789]

Colin - I share your skepticism - many here are calling for 6-10" of snow in Central/North Jersey/NYC, but the NWS is hedging, by only having the WSWatch extend northward to a line from just S of Trenton over to the Ocean/Monmouth County line and the NWS in NYC/Upton is also hedging by saying there is the potential for several inches of snow, but leaving it at that. Also, the local NYC media are generally calling for a 3-6" event, just short of warning criteria. I hope they're all just being conservative, as I'd love to get dumped on.

[verycoolnin]

NWS still believes winds off the Atlantic will warm temps to above freezing for Sunday Night in SE VA. Thus far they have just posted a hazardous weather statement but no watches. I do believe atleast the lower peninsula will be under a winter storm watch/warning as the system moves closer.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/

[Anonymous]

Good weekend everyone. It's been a busy morning so far, which is just a warmup to what we'll see on Sunday. The precipitation experienced this morning across DC and Baltimore was all snow. Most areas southwest of DC ended up with nothing. However 2 inches of snow fell here in central Maryland in Essex and snow has pretty much shut off here for the time being. It's cold though in the upper teens to lower 20s. So champaigne powdery type snow is what we're dealing with in through here.

The next storm moving into the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic will be even wetter with heavy frozen precipitation expected. Let's start off this discusssion with a look at some of the models this morning.

ETA 24-60 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif

GFS 24-60 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060s.gif

In addition to the future progress of this winter storm, a look at current watches/warnings are down below and it covers widespread territory from the Ohio Valley to the Middle Atlantic region.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

There will be severe weather and possible tornadoes in southern and southeast Texas today into this evening. That's just another element to this storm system before it even goes onto winter storm mode later tonight through the day on Sunday.

By Sunday morning, a well developed low pressure system will move slowly northeastward and strengthen to 996 mb. There will be warm air and moisture advecting in from the south into this cold arctic air already in place across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic. As a result, significant wintry precipitation is expected. Freezing rain and sleet will likely affect places from Kansas City to St Louis to the area near Muncie, Indiana and Dayton, Ohio. For Kansas City, MO, an icestorm warning is in effect. For St Louis, MO, A winter storm warning is in effect for tonight through Sunday. A prolonged freezing rain event is likely in both these places with ice accumulations on the order of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Some places within this swath could see over 1/2 inch of ice tonight into Sunday. This will make travel nearly impossible and power outages are a real possibility due to the weight of the ice. Same can be said further east into Indianapolis, Indiana and Dayton, Ohio where a few inches of snow later tonight into Sunday morning will change over to ice. Ice accumulation could be over 1/4 inch thick from central Indiana, and Central Ohio southward to the Ohio River. The Ohio Valley area including the bluegrass state of Kentucky are now under winter storm watches for Sunday. Areas north of the icezone will see potential snow amounts of 3-6 inches just through Sunday. This will include Fort Wayne, Indiana and Mansfield and Toledo, Ohio. Winter storm watch is in effect for you guys as well. More significant wintry precip is possible Monday and Tuesday for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.

Further east, it's already been an interesting morning for the Baltimore and DC area as well as Philly with the snow courtesy of the alberta clipper. 2 inches fell here in southeast Baltimore County in Essex. That brings us up to 14 inches for the 2003-2004 winter season and we'll add 6 more inches on top of that by later Sunday and Sunday night courtesy of this sdame winter storm. By Sunday morning, expect snow to develop across western North Carolina and into most of Virginia including the tidewater area of Virginia. Snow will mix with or changeover to ice or rain depending on where you are. For example, in Virginia Beach, precip will start as snow early in the day Sunday before changing over to sleet or rain. About 1 inch of snow is expected for the Virginia tidewater before the changeover occurs. A winter weather advisory maybe needed for parts of the tidewater and especially into the peninsula. I 64 from Richmond to Norfolk will be hazardous with snow turning to a sheet of ice.

Meanwhile further inland, we got bigger problems that don't only affect travel, but potentially our power as we head on through time. This would include places such as Richmond, Virginia, Ashville, North Carolina, Hickory, North Carolina, and Raleigh, North Carolina where some snow will be followed by a very dangerous and possibly crippling icestorm. For Hickory, Ashville, and Raleigh, snow accumulation will be minimal. However sleet accumulation of 1-2 inches and frez rain ice accreation accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch is quite possible. This entire area including the triad and the triangle area are under winter storm watches to account for this threat. Further north into Richmond and Petersburg, VA, Snow is likely Sunday morning and lasting for most of the day before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. 1-3 inches of snow is expected for the Richmond area followed by ice accumulation of 1/4-1/2 inch possible. Snow with ice on top of that will no doubt cause travel problems. In addition some places oin this icestorm zone will possibly experience power outages at times. There is a tremendous cold air mass moving south as moisture and warmer air moves overtop that denser shallower colder surface. That's why the icestorm and the potential of a prolonged icestorm for Virginia and the Carolinas Sunday into Sunday evening.

Further north into Baltimore, DC, Philly, and New York, a full fledged motherload of snow will accumulate. You think this clipper was bad in Baltimore and Philly??? You haven't seen anything yet. Keep an eye on this after noon Sunday for DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia where a winter storm watch is in effect for Sunday afternoon and night. Snow will accumulate 4-8 inches in Baltimore and Philadelphia and possibly 3-6 inches in Washington DC with 2-4 inches possible in Fredricksburg, Virginia. The DC and Fredricksburg will eventually changeover to sleet and freezing rain. However Baltimore and Philly will likely stay all snow Sunday through Sunday night. More mixed precip could come in early in the week as a second storm system moves through. However for New York City, their snowstorm will come on Sunday night and last right through Tuesday the way it stands now. Snow could be heavy at times and accumulate several inches. This along with wind will cause blowing snow issues for the big apple. Same can be said across central PA and into New York state as well.

In addition to this wintry weather, it will be very cold as cold arctic air moves south and plows into all this moisture. Part of the reason for this is what is known as a greenland block where high pressure aloft dominates Greenland and deposits cold arctic air from the north pole straight down into the United States as oppose to missing the United States altogether. As a result, very cold temps will be widespread over the next two weeks and could get even more dangerous with time as cold air could get worse with the increased snow pack or refrigeration if you will. This will also mean better chances for winter storm conditions over the next few weeks, which must be monitored.

It's a busy weekend folks. More updates on this storm coming up later tonight. In the meantime, stay warm, and keep it safe out there. Stay tuned.
JIM

Excellent discussion JIM!!!!


I love the Greenland Block and the 50/50 LOW so much!!!!!

I hope N VA gets a ton of heavy snow, I hope it gets plowed, than I hope it gets so cold so my precious snow does NOT melt!!!!

I want my jebwalks with boocoo amounts of piled up snow to lovingly look at while blasting the music on my CD headphones!!!!

I can not even begin to express my love for the Greenland Block!!! I want Ice-Age Cold!!!! I want it so bad!!!! I want that snow around for weeks so I can enjoy my precious jebwalks in the snow.

You GO!!! GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!! Yeah!!!! Bring me my snow and extreme Ice Age cold!!! I don't give a d@mn if heating oil costs a million dollars!!! I demand my Ice Age Cold and extreme excessive snows!!!!

Where most men would be fricken DEAD, I will be ENJOYING another jebwalk!!!!






BRING IT!!!!! BRING IT!!!! BRING IT!!!!


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!! YEAH!!!!! I LOVE THAT GREENLAND BLOCK!!!