I'm Worried...

[FLguy]

so whats that in inches

1.25" of liquid asuming that we use a base 10:1 ratio (10*1.25=12.5 --- where 10 is the snow/liquid ratio and 1.25 is the total QPF value)

that would be 12.5" of snow. but thats a BIG IF. i would not get too excited yet until i see that for about 2 or three runs consistently.

[Anonymous]

I need to go steal Snow Plow's snow magnet and pull that 1.25 qpf down here to N VA LOL LOL LOL!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

so whats that in inches

1.25" of liquid asuming that we use a base 10:1 ratio (10*1.25=12.5 --- where 10 is the snow/liquid ratio and 1.25 is the total QPF value)

that would be 12.5" of snow. but thats a BIG IF. i would not get too excited yet until i see that for about 2 or three runs consistently.

In that area......NY/PA state border......won't the cold air be stronger?

So wouldn't the Snow to Liquid ratio be a little higher, say, about 15:1?



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

lets say that we do get 1.25 of liquid, here in Northern Ocean County in central New Jersey would it all stay snow with none of that freezing rain/sleet crap. The temps will be cold enough. What do you think.

[FLguy]

so whats that in inches

1.25" of liquid asuming that we use a base 10:1 ratio (10*1.25=12.5 --- where 10 is the snow/liquid ratio and 1.25 is the total QPF value)

that would be 12.5" of snow. but thats a BIG IF. i would not get too excited yet until i see that for about 2 or three runs consistently.

In that area......NY/PA state border......won't the cold air be stronger?

So wouldn't the Snow to Liquid ratio be a little higher, say, about 15:1?



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jeb --- im using the basic 10:1 ratio to show an example of how snow/liquid ratios and exact QPF are calculated to make snowfall forecasts. its too early to determine exactly what the exact ratio will be or where the best rising motions are located as compared to the dendrite layer with any confidence.

[FLguy]

its simple math ---- any common idiot could figure it out. just move the decimal point

[Steve H.]

Yeah, if I was in the NE I'd be getting excited right now. Almost seems that the solutions are coming around to a strong coastal development. This is becoming evident in the moisture showing on the models, as it shows a prolonged period of precip (i.e., coastal low taking the ball in the third quarter). Let's watch how it unfolds and what track, how fast or slow it moves out, and how the ridge to the north impacts those concerns. It will snow though, and get cold later this week.

[Anonymous]

tell me it won't change over though

[Anonymous]

The coastal low-----Where does it appear to develop? Is it safe to estimate it will develop off the Carolinas?




-JEB

[Anonymous]

Also......How does the placement of the Greenland Block relate to how much this developing coastal will strengthen, and to where the developing coastal low will track, and to the forward speed of the coastal low's movement?




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tip]

Not only he Greenland Block, but the NAO is just about to drop into the Abyss.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

[FLguy]

Not only he Greenland Block, but the NAO is just about to drop into the Abyss.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

i agree, i havent seen the NAO this negative in quite some time.

[Anonymous]

FLguy, will there be a changeover? or will it stay all snow?

[FLguy]

Also......How does the placement of the Greenland Block relate to how much this developing coastal will strengthen, and to where the developing coastal low will track, and to the forward speed of the coastal low's movement?




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

its the relationship between the greenland block, 50/50 low and PV that determines how a coastal storm behaves and what type of precip is favored along the coast.

for all snow in the major cities you MUST have the 50/50 low. it holds the high pressure center in place and provides the ageostrophic wind component needed for strong CAD which helps fight off the warm advection --- keeping p-type mainly snow along the coastal plain. if the 50/50 low isnt there to hold in the high (ala december 14-15) once the wind comes in off the ocean, (southeast or easterly flow) the event turns into a big rain maker for much of the coastal plain and I-95 corridor.

[FLguy]

FLguy, will there be a changeover? or will it stay all snow?

can you wait a few hours until i can get a look at the 0z model cycle.

[Anonymous]

yes, but what are your thinkings right now.

and I don't mean to sound persistent

[FLguy]

yes, but what are your thinkings right now.

and I don't mean to sound persistent

some mixing on monday as warmer air makes it into the mid levels.

[Tip]

I think that as the NAO goes severely negative it will sharpen the longwave pattern and allow the secondary development

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090s.gif

[FLguy]

I think that as the NAO goes severely negative it will sharpen the longwave pattern and allow the secondary development

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090s.gif

yes and the 50/50 low being there as well argues for further sharpening of the wavelengths.

[Anonymous]

channel 7 New York Just said that there could be a some mixing allong the coast, but they don't think it will happen because it will be just too cold. and that one could bring much more snow than what we will see sun and into mon.