I'm Worried...

[FLguy]

channel 7 New York Just said that there could be a some mixing allong the coast, but they don't think it will happen because it will be just too cold. and that one could bring much more snow than what we will see sun and into mon.

first of all i dont give two $hits about what channel 7 says. tonights run of the european runs the primarly low into the lakes then transfers energy to the coast where a new center develops in the inverted trough on day 3 and rapidly deepens northeast as it bombs out in response to the mid levels closing off. it clearly supports this evenings 18z GFS.

[Anonymous]

so no changeover???

[FLguy]

so no changeover???

did i say that

[Anonymous]

no..., but...

[FLguy]

channel 7 New York Just said that there could be a some mixing allong the coast, but they don't think it will happen because it will be just too cold. and that one could bring much more snow than what we will see sun and into mon.

first of all i dont give two $hits about what channel 7 says. tonights run of the european runs the primarly low into the lakes then transfers energy to the coast where a new center develops in the inverted trough on day 3 and rapidly deepens northeast as it bombs out in response to the mid levels closing off. it clearly supports this evenings 18z GFS.

and not to mention the EC also shows decent CAD signature east of the mountains.

[Anonymous]

so what does that mean

[Tip]

The first part of the event is an overruning situation like we had last week. The second part (coastal low) mon-tues should give places north of DC the signficant snow. Word of caution though, coastal low was supposed to form way further south that it did on March 2001. However, different situation and colder air in place. Timing is critical on the trough sharpening before coastal gets too far out to sea. Going to be great to watch this unfold.

[FLguy]

The first part of the event is an overruning situation like we had last week. The second part (coastal low) mon-tues should give places north of DC the signficant snow. Word of caution though, coastal low was supposed to form way further south that it did on March 2001. However, different situation and colder air in place. Timing is critical on the trough sharpening before coastal gets too far out to sea. Going to be great to watch this unfold.

this is also alot different than MAR 01.

[Anonymous]

even near the coast, and when you say significant what do you mean?

[Tip]

The 2001 nightmare still haunts these parts lol

[FLguy]

The 2001 nightmare still haunts these parts lol

it haunted my dreams and e-mail inbox for several weeks after as well.

[Tip]

Significant = 8-16 inches

[BL03]

so, like you said, 8-10 from AC to Redding PA. from the son/mon storm?

a storm total from both events (sun-tue) but i will need to make significant modifications to that overnight especially further northeast.

Yeah if this trend keeps going than New Enland would get slamed!!!
Nyc-Bos!!

[Anonymous]

what about NJ, central on northward?

[Tip]

The lead shortwave coming out of Texas has some real punch. Tremendous vertical lifting and shear = tornado watch

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0001.html

[BL03]

what about NJ, central on northward?

You would too!

[Anonymous]

could there be widespread 12'' form jersey to boston?

[BL03]

could there be widespread 12'' form jersey to boston?

Too early to call but if trend keeps going than 8"++ widesprend!

[FLguy]

could there be widespread 12'' form jersey to boston?

Too early to call but if trend keeps going than 8"++ widesprend!

yep, there is the potential for widespread 8"+ or more if QPF values keep on going up over the next few runs. but i find it particularly interesting (and i could be making a big stink here over something thats just a coincidence) that the GFS came in wetter than the ETA on the 18z run.

[Anonymous]

so no mixing in NJ even allong the coast because the temps will be too cold. and it does seem good to say 8+ on top of what we get on sun/mon.