May be quite interesting next week in Southeast Texas!! HMMM

[PTrackerLA]

It seems as though the new model runs have backed off on the snow idea and keep the arctic air way up north. Looks like we might have gotten our hopes up for nothing.

[southerngale]

You gotta be kidding me PT! :8:

:bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry: :bcry:

[PTrackerLA]

I haven't personally looked at the models, I got that information from the wwltv.com board where they're saying that the models have backed off. Don't shoot the messenger!

Link http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/discuss/postlist.pl?Cat=&Board=Brad

[PTrackerLA]

The cold hard facts

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE CWA WITH SCATTERED
-SHRA LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS SE TX. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SE TX THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A
ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE AND PUSH ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVENING. BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL
KEEP SCA'S GOING FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY.

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE WITH KHGX VWP SHOWING GOOD SPEED SHEAR
ALOFT. ALSO WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8000 FT BY 06Z WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A HAIL THREAT. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE AREA AND SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING OUT TO OUR WEST
WHICH MAY BOOST INSTABILITY ABOVE FORECAST LEVELS. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF SEVERE...WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING. WILL NOT ISSUE
AN FFA AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE AND FAST MOVEMENT
OF ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.

RAPID DRYING WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE
VERY NICE WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
70S. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY...BUT AIRMASS
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER SE TX
THROUGH TUE NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING
SHAPE. MODELS BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WITH PWS RECOVERING TO AROUND AN INCH...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

AND NOW FOR THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT SUPER BOWL WEEKEND FORECAST:
LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ARCTIC FRONT
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...IN FACT BOTH GFS/ECMWF KEEP COLD AIR WELL
NORTH/EAST OF AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS OVER
AND OVER AGAIN THIS SEASON: FORECAST A COLD OUTBREAK FOR TEXAS THEN
DELAY THE FROPA AND SHUNT THE COLD AIR FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH
TIME. BASICALLY...WE HAVEN'T SEEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK YET.
GIVEN THIS FACT AND MODELS TRENDING WARMER...WILL LIKELY BUMP TEMPS
UPWARD FOR FRI/SAT. ALSO BOTH UKMET/ECMWF RUNS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROF WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON UPPING POPS THIS FCST.

The forecaster seems disappointed like us.

[OtherHD]

SnowNazi: 1 million
SnowGeese: ZERO!!!!!!!!

We will be going into February with highs in the mid 50's!!! LET'S TRY TO WARM IT UP A LITTLE MORE!!!!

[sertorius]

Here in the Central Plains, we're in the same boat-latest discussion and models show that the severe cold forcasted for next weekend is going bye bye!! Still show some pretty cold temps for here on Sunday-Monday, but that is delayed even from yesterday-again, it is moving East and staying North of us as well!! Tonight and tomorrow looks like our one good shot at a winter storm and its going to all be ice!! Gfs show something 10 days away, but it has all Winter-looks like we missed it again as well. Some day it will come-just not in the next 10 days!!

[Anonymous]

The cold hard facts

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS EXITED THE CWA WITH SCATTERED
-SHRA LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW DRYLINE TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS SE TX. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SE TX THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A
ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE AND PUSH ACROSS SE TX THIS
EVENING. BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. WILL
KEEP SCA'S GOING FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY.

MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE WITH KHGX VWP SHOWING GOOD SPEED SHEAR
ALOFT. ALSO WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8000 FT BY 06Z WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A HAIL THREAT. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE AREA AND SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEARING OUT TO OUR WEST
WHICH MAY BOOST INSTABILITY ABOVE FORECAST LEVELS. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF SEVERE...WITH A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING. WILL NOT ISSUE
AN FFA AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE AND FAST MOVEMENT
OF ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT.

RAPID DRYING WILL SPREAD ACROSS SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE
VERY NICE WITH JUST SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
70S. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY...BUT AIRMASS
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER SE TX
THROUGH TUE NIGHT RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING
SHAPE. MODELS BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WITH PWS RECOVERING TO AROUND AN INCH...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN
FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.

AND NOW FOR THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT SUPER BOWL WEEKEND FORECAST:
LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ARCTIC FRONT
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...IN FACT BOTH GFS/ECMWF KEEP COLD AIR WELL
NORTH/EAST OF AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE DONE THIS OVER
AND OVER AGAIN THIS SEASON: FORECAST A COLD OUTBREAK FOR TEXAS THEN
DELAY THE FROPA AND SHUNT THE COLD AIR FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH
TIME. BASICALLY...WE HAVEN'T SEEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD OUTBREAK YET.
GIVEN THIS FACT AND MODELS TRENDING WARMER...WILL LIKELY BUMP TEMPS
UPWARD FOR FRI/SAT. ALSO BOTH UKMET/ECMWF RUNS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER
TROF WEST OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON UPPING POPS THIS FCST.

The forecaster seems disappointed like us.

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Man-if tx got it I was sure FL would too---this sux

[southerngale]

I wouldn't shoot you PT!

However, HD is another story.


This is depressing. :8:

[OtherHD]

This is depressing. :8:

This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!

[southerngale]

This is depressing. :8:

This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!

Got some more NEWS for you! The models are starting to show it again!

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!! :35:

[OtherHD]

Yeah yeah yeah, just goes to show you how reliable the models are.













NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guest]

Yep they are HD. Euro and the GFS.

Lets remember lately the GFS has been showing things only to lose them for a day or so and then popping right back up as is the case with the system thats affecting you all tonight and headed my way tomorrow. And is also showing the second system stronger then that behind it which should help to start to pull some of that artic air down that way.

Game is not over with yet!

[Lindaloo]

Tell him SG and KOW!!

[OtherHD]

Come on King, this isn't the first time the Euro has shown fantasy arctic air. We all know that you don't really think it'll snow in SE TX...and that you're just saying that to get on the good side of all the SnowGeese. All next week is going to be in the 60's for highs! Isn't it great!!! Sunshine for everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<HowardDean>We need to hope for sun, warmth, clear skies, and then HUMIDITY, 70'S FOR HIGHS, FLOWERS, HEAT, and NO SNOW!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</HowardDean>

[Guest]

Im being truthfull HD. You of all people should know this from visiting elsewhere. (Its been well advertised) And btw i didnt mention the word snow. BUT the cold air is headed that way. As far as snow goes there is a outside possibility around a week or so.

[FLguy]

SnowNazi: 1 million
SnowGeese: ZERO!!!!!!!!

We will be going into February with highs in the mid 50's!!! LET'S TRY TO WARM IT UP A LITTLE MORE!!!!

all snow nazis are guaranteed to fail like howard dean on his bid for the whitehouse.

[OtherHD]

SnowNazi: 1 million
SnowGeese: ZERO!!!!!!!!

We will be going into February with highs in the mid 50's!!! LET'S TRY TO WARM IT UP A LITTLE MORE!!!!

all snow nazis are guaranteed to fail like howard dean on his bid for the whitehouse.

Hmmmmm, wanna bet?

[Lindaloo]

all snow nazis are guaranteed to fail like howard dean on his bid for the whitehouse.

ROFLMBO!!!!!

[OtherHD]

Laugh it up Linda. But call me in March and ask me what my snow total is. See if you can guess who will have the last laugh. I'll give you a hint: His name begins with O and ends in therHD.

[Lindaloo]

Laugh it up Linda. But call me in March and ask me what my snow total is. See if you can guess who will have the last laugh. I'll give you a hint: His name begins with O and ends in therHD.

You do this all by yourself. I believe a professional before I would an amatuer.