Last call map.

[Stormsfury]

What about big cites? I see NYC mostly snow! Further south there could be mixes and even eastern LI there would be mixes but NYC looks ok IMO.

the big cities are a tossup at this time. at least IMO. and additional heavy accumulations appear to ber out of the question for DCA and BWI. at least per the GFS. PHL and NYC are a tossup and BOX looks to be in good.

IF a miller B scenario unfolds, it COULD put PHL in the screw zone ... possible, but I haven't spent the time to look at that area (for obvious reasons with the Carolinas situation).

SF

[FLguy]

What about big cites? I see NYC mostly snow! Further south there could be mixes and even eastern LI there would be mixes but NYC looks ok IMO.

the big cities are a tossup at this time. at least IMO. and additional heavy accumulations appear to ber out of the question for DCA and BWI. at least per the GFS. PHL and NYC are a tossup and BOX looks to be in good.

IF a miller B scenario unfolds, it COULD put PHL in the screw zone ... possible, but I haven't spent the time to look at that area (for obvious reasons with the Carolinas situation).

SF

thats very possible also. it will depend on how fast coastal cyclogenesis takes place and how quickly the low bombs out. it is a miller B scenario. if we see a fast transfer, it could allow more cold air to get pulled in behind the system faster.

[Anonymous]

I fervently hope PHL does NOT get screwed. I know how that feels.

Let's hope this works out fine for everyone!




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FLguy]

right now i think it could be close to a hit for NYC...especially if the GFS is correct. miller B or not.

and besides not every miller B can screw the PHL area. theres bound to be one thats a hit. dec 5 2002 was a good example. along with PDS 2 and others.

[FLguy]

I fervently hope PHL does NOT get screwed. I know how that feels.

Let's hope this works out fine for everyone!




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jeb thats the most sensible thing i think i have ever heard from you!!!

[Anonymous]

I fervently hope PHL does NOT get screwed. I know how that feels.

Let's hope this works out fine for everyone!




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

jeb thats the most sensible thing i think i have ever heard from you!!!

Thank you, FLguy! NP.


-JEB

[Anonymous]

We are observing steady N winds at 10 mph with gusts to 15-18. Temps slowly falling (16 right now), dewpoint is 3 above zero.

The cool air continues to flow southward.




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FLguy]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

[FLguy]

BTW does anyone have the new 0z GGEM for the monday-wednesday event.

[Anonymous]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

FLguy, I'd like to introduce you to some of MY Winter Weather Forecasting knowledge.

Please, feel free to read some of this material........and do tell me what you think of it............................................

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

BTW does anyone have the new 0z GGEM for the monday-wednesday event.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

[FLguy]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

FLguy, I'd like to introduce you to some of MY Winter Weather Forecasting knowledge.

Please, feel free to read some of this material........and do tell me what you think of it............................................

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats very impressive jeb. EXCELLENT JOB on all articles. and well written as well.

[Anonymous]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

FLguy, I'd like to introduce you to some of MY Winter Weather Forecasting knowledge.

Please, feel free to read some of this material........and do tell me what you think of it............................................

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats very impressive jeb. EXCELLENT JOB on all articles. and well written as well.

I need to admit that I did not write that article, but I love to read it.........

But......I still have a LOT to learn about weather LOL.




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FLguy]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

FLguy, I'd like to introduce you to some of MY Winter Weather Forecasting knowledge.

Please, feel free to read some of this material........and do tell me what you think of it............................................

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats very impressive jeb. EXCELLENT JOB on all articles. and well written as well.

I need to admit that I did not write that article, but I love to read it.........

But......I still have a LOT to learn about weather LOL.




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ok...well you lead me to believe that you did based on the tone of your previous post. in any case those are great articles.

[Anonymous]

you got it jeb...

and also as a reminder to folks what goes into making an accurate snowfall accumulation and precip type forecasts. i strongly suggest that you consault an artile done by yours truly a few weeks ago.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Guid ... sting.html

FLguy, I'd like to introduce you to some of MY Winter Weather Forecasting knowledge.

Please, feel free to read some of this material........and do tell me what you think of it............................................

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats very impressive jeb. EXCELLENT JOB on all articles. and well written as well.

I need to admit that I did not write that article, but I love to read it.........

But......I still have a LOT to learn about weather LOL.




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ok...well you lead me to believe that you did based on the tone of your previous post. in any case those are great articles.

Then I formally apologize for misrepresentation. I should have been more specific.

-JEB.

[FLguy]

thats ok , it happens

[FLguy]

BTW does anyone have the new 0z GGEM for the monday-wednesday event.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_for ... bal_e.html

thanks.

the 0z GGEM is not even as warm as the ETA (which is uncommon for the GGEM considering the warm bias.)

in any case it has a 996 low sitting off the NJ coastline at 72hrs with INTENSE blocking and great looking 50/50 low. thicknesses on the GGEM imply an all snow event for NYC and BOX.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 492_50.gif

normally i would say to ignore the GGEM thermal profiles but given the fact that it is COLDER than the ETA its kind of hard to ignore.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 133_50.gif