18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

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BL03
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18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#1 Postby BL03 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:54 pm

Eta finally coming together!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_slp_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/images/eta_p24_066l.gif
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Re: 18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#2 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:01 pm




How much, I live in central NJ and that 0 line what does it represent?
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Re: 18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#3 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:01 pm



supports last nights GGEM with the position and strength of the low.
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#4 Postby Guest » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:03 pm

And dont forget Ohio as well! ;)

Been honking this baby for a few days now. GFS had it first and now the eta is just about onboard!!
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#5 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:04 pm

king of weather wrote:And dont forget Ohio as well! ;)

Been honking this baby for a few days now. GFS had it first and now the eta is just about onboard!!


kudos to the GFS for picking up on this first. and i also see that the ETA is somewhat colder this run. not to mention significantly wetter.
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#6 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:06 pm

FLguy..... Could be 12-18"?
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:09 pm

so 12- 18 for central NJ on northward. do you think the storm will trend further south and wetter? It will be a strong storm so will that discredit the changeover?
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#8 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:10 pm

ill have my first call out tomorrow night.
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#9 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:12 pm

1evans wrote:so 12- 18 for central NJ on northward. do you think the storm will trend further south and wetter? It will be a strong storm so will that discredit the changeover?


im NOT going to discuss totals. but yes the system will be undergoing bomb cyclogenesis which means that the system rapidly intensifies as it moves northeastward. that in its self would rush colder air in behind the system (much like xmas 02 but i dont think pressures get that low) freezes the column and forces any mixed precip to go over to snow.
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Re: 18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#10 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:13 pm



oh and BTW...i would use the 18z runs with EXTREME caution.
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#11 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:16 pm

whan does the heavy snow start for the tuesday storm?
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#12 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:18 pm

king of weather wrote:And dont forget Ohio as well! ;)

Been honking this baby for a few days now. GFS had it first and now the eta is just about onboard!!


i should have been more open to the GFS but given its track record i wasnt going to honk for nothing. once the EC/UKMET/GGEM came into agreement last night and this afternoon...there obviously is reason for concern.
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#13 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:19 pm

X-mas 02? eh? 3 feet of snow fell in NY State........ This Storm, will get nowhere near 3 feet, However... I say, 18 inches MAX... But, I am Not a Met, So, I leave it to FLguy to call this........
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#14 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:20 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:X-mas 02? eh? 3 feet of snow fell in NY State........ This Storm, will get nowhere near 3 feet, However... I say, 18 inches MAX... But, I am Not a Met, So, I leave it to FLguy to call this........


im talking about how quickly the low deepens in relation to how much cold air is drawn back in. otherwise im making NO comparison what so ever to xmas 02, other than that.
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#15 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:22 pm

FLguy when do you see the heavy snow starting and what are your thinkings right now for snow totals.
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Re: 18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#16 Postby BL03 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:24 pm



I know BUT this run is good because the eta may be finally trending the way the gfs is!
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#17 Postby Colin » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:25 pm

1evans wrote:FLguy when do you see the heavy snow starting and what are your thinkings right now for snow totals.


He just said he wasn't discussing totals until tomorrow night...please stop asking.
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#18 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:26 pm

Colin wrote:
1evans wrote:FLguy when do you see the heavy snow starting and what are your thinkings right now for snow totals.


He just said he wasn't discussing totals until tomorrow night...please stop asking.


yes...exactly , thanks colin.
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Re: 18 ETA! Can we say big snowstorm!!! C NJ-NYC-NORTH?

#19 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:27 pm

BL03 wrote:


I know BUT this run is good because the eta may be finally trending the way the gfs is!


their good for establishing trends and thats it. not for making or modifying forecasts.
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#20 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:27 pm

all right i'll stop, nevermind.
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