Storm Thread for N VA begins Tonight into Jan 25/26.......

Winter Weather Discussion

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arlwx
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#41 Postby arlwx » Sun Jan 25, 2004 9:23 am

The latest version of the Sterling weather office WSW:URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA COTNINUING
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND BEFORE ENDING MONDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ040>042-052>054-252200-
ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-CARROLL MD-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK MD-
HARFORD MD-HOWARD MD-LOUDOUN VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-
RAPPAHANNOCK VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-

...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BALTIMORE
AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MID
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HORUS. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.

$$

MDZ016>018-VAZ025-026-036>039-050-051-055>057-252200-
ALBEMARLE VA-AUGUSTA VA-CALVERT MD-CHARLES MD-CULPEPER VA-GREENE VA-
KING GEORGE VA-MADISON VA-NELSON VA-ORANGE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-

...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW MAY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES.

$$

MDZ002-003-VAZ021-027>031-WVZ048>055-252200-
ALLEGANY MD-BERKELEY WV-CLARKE VA-FREDERICK VA-GRANT WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-
HARDY WV-HIGHLAND VA-JEFFERSON WV-MINERAL WV-MORGAN WV-PAGE VA-
PENDLETON WV-SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD-

...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVER HIGHLAND
AND PENDLETON COUNTIES...THE SNOW MAY BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
BY EARLY MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 5
AND 10 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
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#42 Postby arlwx » Sun Jan 25, 2004 9:29 am

Locally in the Baltimore/Washington area, the forecasters on 4, 7, 11 and 13 have all followed the NWS's hug of the ETA (which would give DC about 9 inches and Baltimore around 6 if it all fell as snow), while Channel 9 still is sticking with the GFS solution (much weaker QPF which would give 4-5 inches at the most if it was all snow) and saying that some of it will fall as ice instead atop a 2-4 inch snow layer.

Let's see which channel(s) convieniently forget earlier forecasts during their 6 pm shows...
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#43 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 9:56 am

Yeah arlwx and Lowpressure, we may be dealing with one or even two more lows Mon night into Wednesday here.

It was a chilly night here at the Weatherplex; we bottomed out at 11 degrees. Its 15 degrees now; winds are NNE at 7 to 13 mph with gusts to 21. Just went out for another fresh breath of arctic air.

Okay folks I'm wide awake now.

We should top out at about 20 degrees this afternoon, but if its really high temps you're looking for, you need to head south. Really far south, as in Jamaica.

Let's check out the National Radar.

The system is developing still further. There is a good GOM feed to this storm. Man what a moisture plume! Look at the frozen precip extent!! It streches clear from Kansas/Nebraska thru Arkansas to Illinois to Indiana Tennessee to parts of Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia on east into Northh Carolina and western Virginia. Even South Carolina has gotten into the act with the frozen precip types!! Last night Kentucky got some snow and sleet and frzra; today they have a good deal of rain, some of which is heavy at times.

This system is going to put down a lot of snowfall over the Mid Atlantic beginning about 5 or 6pm late this afternoon/early this evening.

Take a gander at the regional radar.

Most of that is likely to be virga. Virga is precipitation (in this case, snow) which is falling aloft but due to the very cold and dry arctic air at the surface, it is evaporating before reaching the ground.

But this is no clipper which is starved for moisture. This folks, is a genuine southern-stream system with a good Gulf of Mexico feed and it has plenty of moisture to work with. Expect the snow to develop over VA from southwest to northeast. SW zones will see flurries about 3pm; Woodbridge should see flurries by 6 to 7 pm. The snow will develop in earnest after that.


The ground is cold enough to support snow; the snow will pile up and travel will rapidly become very hazardous in all zones. Please do not travel unless its absolutely necessary. Roads will become snow-packed; temperatures will not rise much today between the cloudiness and evaporative cooling and they will fall a few degrees tonight. WAA considerations will not arise in N VA until pre-dawn so sfc temps will remain very cold. Salt and abrasives will have a minimal effect in these low temps so just stay off the roads tonight well into tomorrow.

We have a second low to deal with on Monday into Tuesday which will spread some sleet and freezing rain and freezing drizzle into VA Monday night into Tuesday.

I do not believe any children will be attending school through Wednesday in VA.

NWS seems to believe we may have a third low to deal with as well.

Well, we have a full plate. We'll deal with these systems one at a time folks.

If you need to buy food or other goods, you may still have 5 or 6 hours left to do so, but exercise caution. Flurries may break out by 4 pm here in N VA. Don't be surprised if the flurries begin earlier than expected. Whatever snow falls WILL IMMEDIATELY ACCUMULATE and blow around. The roads and ground are very very cold!!!!!!

I'll be back near 3pm after church :) Lowpressure and arlwx and other VA citizens as well as professional mets on this board-----You have the conn. Please keep these folks apprised of the situation here; this is a serious winter storm. Thank you. :)

Everyone----Please feel free to chime in at any time!!! Please take care, stay warm, and stay safe. See ya in a few hours.

Get those snow shovels ready------You'll need 'em!!!!!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU VERY MUCH, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!! :)
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#44 Postby Gord_on_snow » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:16 am

Hello! Been reading your thoughts carefully, may be moving to Ohio in the US later this year.

Really pleased to see you get as excited about snow as we do in the UK! We have a lot of excitement coming up this week with a week long artic blast on the way, and i'm in the firing line of it.
Although our winter events are not a patch on yours.

Will be following your winter storms, although i'll find it difficult as i understand celius more than Farienheight(bad spelling!)
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#45 Postby arlwx » Sun Jan 25, 2004 11:15 am

Jeb,

The 12Z model runs now look like both NGM and GFS are climbing on board with the ETA. They respectively want to give the close DC metro area about 5-6, 7 and 8 inches respectively from 7 pm to 7 am.

Just about everything indicates a later start to the snow (the GFS stubbornly holding out for late afternoon at National Airport), so the 7 am totals may be less than advertised above, especially if the WAA actually tries to materialize (aided by all the cars, building heat being turned on, etc).

I will admit that 3" so far appears to be a bust, and am raising my Arlington driveway total guesstimate (for 7 am Monday) to around 5 inches. But I will refuse to believe the ETA (unless the 8 inches DOES appear in my driveway, ha.ha.)

Right now it is about 18 degrees F/ minus 8 C, with very light winds. (National is reporting 19), with the SUN appearing through a hazy overcast. Catch your rays now!
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#46 Postby Wannabewxman79 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 11:37 am

Just chimming in from Raleigh this morning. The temp has dropped from 25 this morning to 21 right now and the snow is falling down hard. It is heading up toward all you fine folks in the Mid-Atl. so I hope you enjoy.
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#47 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:44 pm

Back from church. 1:42 p.m. 19.0 degrees dp -4. Several different cloud decks moving up from the SW. Snow 15 miles away on radar, probably virga at this point. Snow not far behind it however. I will keep you updated. I am 30 miles SSW of Jeb's driveway. I will get it first as it moves up toward Woodbridge and D.C.
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#48 Postby TBird » Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:05 pm

2:00pm in Warrenton VA (Fauquier County, 50 miles west of DC)

19.1 degrees

Cloudy

No snow


Still waiting

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#49 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:27 pm

Okay folks......Finally back.

Yup...................puter was REAL REAL slow coming on today.

Radars indicate snow virga over Woodbridge. High today was 21 degrees, we are now down to 18 degrees, overnight low was 11 with a dewpoint of -4 degrees. Present dewpoint is 0 degrees.

We have at least two cloud decks overhead; Cirrostratus and altostratus and the sun was covered up about an hour ago.

Let's check the radars again......................


Yup virga is really moving north and east. Dry air is really evaporating the snow. Even with the moisture this system has, it'll still be some time before the snow reaches the ground. Maybe I'm just an incurable pessimist, but I'd say we need to perhaps bump down total amounts by a couple inches? Or am I indeed just a dumb pessimist?

I say we just sit tight and see. Temps are pretty cold, even though the dry air is really evaporating a good deal of the snow, I think the low temps will inflate the totals at least some. I am sticking with 5 to 7 inches, maybe a 10 inch lollipop somewhere.


I will keep ya updated all evening here at the Jebcast Weatherplex.

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#50 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:11 pm

Jeb- here ya go. 5:05 and light snow!! Didn't even bother with flurries. Snow is gathering on everything it touches but ti just started. It is 19.4 degrees and dp -2 light ENE winds 4-6 mph. I will keep updates coming now the snow has started. It is coming your way Jeb, it was just so cold and dry it took a while to moisten up.
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#51 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:28 pm

526pm.................................

18 degrees, dewpoint 0 degrees.............

We have just begun to see very tiny snow grains. I counted four on the top of my car.


I will keep you updated all evening on this weather, however it turns out.



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#52 Postby Cheesy_Poofs » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:28 pm

The dry slot in SW VA, SWV, and E Kentucky is starting to worry me....( The dry slot extends into W Kentucky....)


http://www.nbc4.com/wxmap/1195204/detail.html
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#53 Postby TBird » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:41 pm

5:30 in Warrenton, VA (50 miles west of DC)

SNOW!!!!

Finally!

Light, but consistent, streets are starting to cover--very very dry snow

Whew, I was starting to get a little concerned
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#54 Postby Cheesy_Poofs » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:49 pm

Hey JEB can I post OBS from Central MD ( About an hour and 15 minutes from Woodbridge) instead of starting a seperate thread?
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#55 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 5:59 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:Hey JEB can I post OBS from Central MD ( About an hour and 15 minutes from Woodbridge) instead of starting a seperate thread?




Sure!!! :) :) Post whatever you like!!! :)



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#56 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:02 pm

A while ago, I counted 4 snow grains on the top of my car, but I have not seen any falling snow yet.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.........................................


Still 18 degrees and dewpoint UP a degree, to 1 above zero.


JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#57 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:04 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:The dry slot in SW VA, SWV, and E Kentucky is starting to worry me....( The dry slot extends into W Kentucky....)


http://www.nbc4.com/wxmap/1195204/detail.html



Yeah, that Dry Slot has gotten me very, very concerned..........

That Dry Slot will drastically cut down on accums. I wonder who's gonna get the bad news?




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#58 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:06 pm

Temperature has fallen to 17 degrees and the dewpoint is 3 above zero. 'Bout time that dewpoint comes up!!!!!!







-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#59 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:07 pm

6:04 p.m. down to 17.3 degrees dp 0. Snow took a while to really get going. It is quite a bit heavier now. Steady but not yet moderate. Everything is turning white. The grass is taking longer due to dry snow not sticking but falling to the dirt.
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#60 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:12 pm

6:10 17.2 degrees. Much bigger flakes now and starting to come down consistantly now. Getting into the accumulation mode now.
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