Dont WET ur pants WEENIES!! DT 1st GUESS

mdguy25 · #1 Postby **mdguy25** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:40 pm

http://www.wxrisk.com/Meteorology/Verif ... an28/1.jpg

Wannabewxman79 · #2 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:54 pm

Wow, even more winter weather for Raleigh, now this is the kind we don't want. Any idea of a guess as to how much ice this area will see tomorrow and tomorrow night?

Heady Guy · #3 Postby **Heady Guy** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:54 pm

There looka to be a weird zone from NYC to PHL.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 6:59 pm

His map is good and is very reasonible. Although I think that the 12+ line should be extended further south, just a little to over central NJ, I do think that we will get in with the 12+, it's only a little to the north from my location. I know it's a first call, but the 12+ could be extended to the south, slightly.
Just my opinion.

Dr Spectrum · #5 Postby **Dr Spectrum** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:00 pm

This one is from WoodstockWX from WWBB. He has been HOT lately:

#6 Postby **Stephanie** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:08 pm

My forecasted snow totals have been lowered to 2 - 4 inches and we're now in a Winter Weather Advisory instead of a storm warning. Looks like that High Pressure system is inhibiting the progress of the snow up my way.

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:10 pm

Yep and DT IMHO is beeing very conservative with his first call (oops First Guess) for the OV which i cant blame him. This area is a big pain in the arse to forecast!

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:14 pm

KOW, what is your current temperature?

Heady Guy · #9 Postby **Heady Guy** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:19 pm

The thing that I saw & am in is the ice event. He made a reference to 1994. That was sever in the PHL area. Make swe wonder if I will be sitting in a major ice storm. About 20 miles north of me is heavy snow and 20 miles 20 mile seas tof me is rain. I know it is a first guess, but looks like I may be in for some nasty ice.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:24 pm

stormsfury, do you think that 12+ plus line will be extended into central NJ, I'm wright on the boarder. I'm not just saying that because I'm not in it, but If NYC and the Island get it than central NJ gets it also.

mdguy25 · #11 Postby **mdguy25** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:26 pm

There should definitely be some MAJOR icing issues in the Mid Atlantic with this CAD being as strong as it is.

Stormsfury · #12 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:30 pm

Problem with icing upstream ...

1) Does the warm nose get as far north as progged? ... That I haven't looked into due to the Carolinas issues right now ..

Someone gets screwed ... plain and simple ... where the primary low jumps to the coast, bottom line, there's absolutely no avoiding that ... but again, I haven't been looking into the Mid-Atlantic region with the Carolinas' Icestorm ...

SF

Steve H. · #13 Postby **Steve H.** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:30 pm

These kinds of systems are very difficult to forecast. Seems like heavy snows for the mid-atlantic/NE, but these forecasts can often bust in many areas. On the other hand, if this low deepens quickly and moves slowly NE as some models suggest, it could become an all out blizzard. Let's see what value the Euro brings, if any. BTW, I can't see what I'm typing. The backgroud is dark and when I change the font color it stays the same on the screen :roll:

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:32 pm

Steve H. wrote:These kinds of systems are very difficult to forecast. Seems like heavy snows for the mid-atlantic/NE, but these forecasts can often bust in many areas. On the other hand, if this low deepens quickly and moves slowly NE as some models suggest, it could become an all out blizzard. Let's see what value the Euro brings, if any. BTW, I can't see what I'm typing. The backgroud is dark and when I change the font color it stays the same on the screen

This is NOW time, and the EURO isn't the model of choice for the SR ... best bets right now besides the ETA/GFS are the RUC, SREF ensembles and the MESOETA ...

SF

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:36 pm

Whoops sorry SF. Had to get off of here for a couple.
Temp is 13.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:37 pm

whats your take on central NJ on northward. 12+ seems very likely.

Steve H. · #17 Postby **Steve H.** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:38 pm

You're right SF, even if the real deal is Tuesday nite/Wednesday. TIme for the forecasters to put the cards on the table. Very tough call.

#18 Postby **Stephanie** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 7:39 pm

Heady Guy wrote:The thing that I saw & am in is the ice event. He made a reference to 1994. That was sever in the PHL area. Make swe wonder if I will be sitting in a major ice storm. About 20 miles north of me is heavy snow and 20 miles 20 mile seas tof me is rain. I know it is a first guess, but looks like I may be in for some nasty ice.

That was a horrible winter! We had 3 ice storms in a two week period during January.

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 8:33 pm

1994: The Year of The ICE.

Dec 28 1993 we got 4 inches snow.

Jan 19 1994 we got an inch and a half freezing rain/ice.

Feb. 11, 1994 we got 3 inches of sleet balls that froze into a glacier overnight.

March 1/2 1994 we got 4 more inches snow.

February was COLD COLD COLD that winter!!! I saw a guy drive a car on a frozen pond. We measured the ice on that pond.......it was 8 inches thick!!! There was an icy hill next to it, we slid our sleds down the hill then clear across the pond!!!!!! WHEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wannabewxman79 · #20 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Sun Jan 25, 2004 8:46 pm

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94qwbg.gif

This is from nws site and says an inch of precip. tomorrow in the Carolinas and Georgia. What is the deal with that?

Dont WET ur pants WEENIES!! DT 1st GUESS

Dont WET ur pants WEENIES!! DT 1st GUESS

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