00z Eta

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Eddie
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00z Eta

#1 Postby Eddie » Sun Jan 25, 2004 9:57 pm

Tons of QPF for all of PA/NJ over an inch in KTTN!! Dont' know what this means exactly. Not sure if we're in for an Ice Storm or a Snow Storm here. Still tryin to figure it out. Can't get onto to WWBB and it's driving me crazy!!



Here is the 54 Hour Precip Totals


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_054l.gif
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NJSnowFreak
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#2 Postby NJSnowFreak » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:05 pm

alot of that is going to be "other than snow"...
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Heady Guy
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#3 Postby Heady Guy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:07 pm

I am hoping it is just not plain rain.
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#4 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:07 pm

NJSnowFreak wrote:alot of that is going to be "other than snow"...


the ETA has been trending colder. and at times can have a problem with over-estimating the amount of WAA
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#5 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:08 pm

heres the 60hr total QPF:

Image

thats 1.25-1.50" of liquid widespread.
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TheWeatherZone
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#6 Postby TheWeatherZone » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:10 pm

It appears, according to the ETA that the "HEAVIEST" precip occurs as snow for the PHL metro. NYC will probably fare better here, BUT PHL should see some heavy snow with storm #2.

~Image


Mike~
Last edited by TheWeatherZone on Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JCT777
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#7 Postby JCT777 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:11 pm

I would love to believe that a lot of that QPF is going to be snow, but I have a suspicion that all of the forecasts I have seen and heard regarding mixed precip/ice/rain for Monday PM into Tuesday AM are correct. Which means a decent chunk of that QPF is not snow in southeast PA.
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Stephanie
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#8 Postby Stephanie » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:12 pm

That's alot of precipitation! I sure do hope that it's mostly snow and not alot of ice is mixed in. It's going to be a long week!
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#9 Postby FLguy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:16 pm

the problem is at face value, (i have yet to see BUFKIT soundings) H85 temps imply mixed precipitation while thicknesses suggest mostly all snow.

northwest of PHL that is.
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TheWeatherZone
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#10 Postby TheWeatherZone » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:21 pm

FLguy, are you expecting the models to trend colder in future runs? It seems as if they are slowly drawing colder air into the system with each run. Also QPF amounts are enhanced this run. Whether or not its mostly snow or a mix of ip/zr/ and/or rain is the big question.

Mike~
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Eddie
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#11 Postby Eddie » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:27 pm

Mt. Holly thinks Sig Ice Possible between Snows...
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#12 Postby JCT777 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:31 pm

Eddie - I just noticed that. I love snow, but ice storms stink.
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NJwx15
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#13 Postby NJwx15 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:42 pm

thats snow for everyone guys dont worry...dont get worked up over DT's guess...its not gonna be 40s and rain on the coast with a huge greenland block, quebec high and a 50-50 low!
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#14 Postby Heady Guy » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:44 pm

Fox PHL Rob G is going with snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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#15 Postby thstorm87 » Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:47 pm

basically if i understood rob guarino corectly, he is calling for 4 in philly overnight into monday, then some ice later monday through tues afternoon, then maybe 2-5 snow in philly on tues night into wednesday.
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