Declaring victory for yesterday, now what

[neo gravitas]

Well, I can't pull up the thread on the other board, but if I could it would show a forecast for DCA that went like this:

Storm beginning around 3 PM, ending by 8-9, totals at DCA 5.4, highest total at Frederick.

For verification I don't have DCA yet, but that number is in the ballpark. Storm started late, by the duration of accumulating snow was about 5 hours. SO I'll take that as a win. Highest official total I could find in DC/MD/VA/WV/NJ/PA/Oh/IL/IN was 7.5 inches at Frederick, MD. So I'll declare total victory on that one (I see folks in Blacksburg reporting almost as much, but haven't seen an official total).

Alright, enough back-apatting (but hey, that's half the fun right?). And onto the next system. Wave 2 and 3.

Pretty simple really, cold layer remains in place over the area, the first wave is pretty light, should be mostly zr. Final wave (wave #3). I just can't see this spinning up far enough south to get DCA into the snow. Actually don't much at all for wave 3, maybe some zr (and plain rain as close as Frederiicksburg and northern neck), with a brief period of light /mod sn at the end, but <1 inch of new snow. Essentially, From BWI south, I'm saying this storm is over for snow. Enjoy your day off...

[thstorm87]

well as much as I hate to say it, out of all the forecasts I heard for this storm, 2 forecast were right from 3 days ago. The first gary gray who said 2-4 for philly a few days ago, and the other hurricane swartz on chan 10 who said 2-4 for philly and more to south and east. While at the same time everyone else was making fun of those calls, and calling for like 3-6 or 4-8 or even more. Well total for philly is about 3inches, for areas to south of philly totals are about 5 inches.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

the first wave is pretty light

Really? NWS has a Winter Storm Warning for 0.25" of ice tonight...

[neo gravitas]

the first wave is pretty light

Really? NWS has a Winter Storm Warning for 0.25" of ice tonight...

Really. This isn't going to be another of those 'you aren't forecasting what I want to hear so I'm gonna just dismiss you" discussions is it?

Yes, I think it will be pretty light. That .25 includes fzdz ver the course of the day. While that can certainly cause major traffic problems, from the perspective of dynamic weather events, its pretty marginal. Tonights precip will be light (under a quyartre inch is light by pretty much any standard). And because it will be light its gonna be fzdz or ip. So nothing major.

I just don't see any more DCA snow in this system. I'm happy to come back and have you take a verbal swing at me if I am wrong, however .

[Cheesy_Poofs]

the first wave is pretty light

Really? NWS has a Winter Storm Warning for 0.25" of ice tonight...

Really. This isn't going to be another of those 'you aren't forecasting what I want to hear so I'm gonna just dismiss you" discussions is it?

Yes, I think it will be pretty light. That .25 includes fzdz ver the course of the day. While that can certainly cause major traffic problems, from the perspective of dynamic weather events, its pretty marginal. Tonights precip will be light (under a quyartre inch is light by pretty much any standard). And because it will be light its gonna be fzdz or ip. So nothing major.

I just don't see any more DCA snow in this system. I'm happy to come back and have you take a verbal swing at me if I am wrong, however .

No, it's not another one of those " you aren't forecasting what I want to hear so I'm gonna just dismiss you" discussions. I was just pointing out what the NWS was saying. That's all.

[JCT777]

neo - Good call on the snow. I hope the 3rd storm forms far enough south to allow at least BWI, if not DC, into the game.

[neo gravitas]

neo - Good call on the snow. I hope the 3rd storm forms far enough south to allow at least BWI, if not DC, into the game.

Well, I'm waiting for the 12z models to see if maybe I spoke too soon, lol. 12z NGM is getting closer to a good BWI solution, but the ULL in the OV is still too strong, and the surface low is parallel to BWI before it gets cranking enough to get sn in that area. No comma head at that point, so it rapidly pulls out leaving the DC/Balt metroplex windy but with no precip...

So lets look at trends comapring 12z ETA to the 0z. At 18, 24 (6z and 12z Tues) looks a little further north and stronger at 500mb, although the differences are pretty much gone by 30 hrs. At the surface, the low is in a bout the same place at 12z as 0z, but its a tad stronger. AT 30 hours there is nothing encouraging the ETA for snow in the DC/BWI corridor.

Looking at the 36hour 6z GFS and 42 hr 0z GFS, virtually no change at 500mb, maybe a tad west. Both runs however are east of the ETA. At the surface, both GFS runs are a little further south than ETAwith both the OV UL and the surface ow forming off the Delmarva. Both are still too weak and too north to bring anything to DC/BWI. However, I should note that even though the NGM does not bring sn into DC, the NGm has the best set-up attm. The trend is in the right direction, so we'll have to see what the 12z models look like.

And, I didn't really bother with temps in looking at these models, cause the placement of the surface featyres will determine temps - if the low off the cape forms far enough south to throw decent precip into Dc/BWiI some of it ill be snow so its a secondary issue.

[WEATHER53]

We initially went with 3-5" for DC metro and then by early Saturday upped to 4-8", emphasized it would be a 90%+ snowstorm and it was 99% snow. DC metro generally had 4.5-6" so only really poor forecasts were those in 2-4" or 8"+ range and those that put lot of emphais on sleet/fr rain/rain.