Ever heard the term "if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen"? Well if you can't stand extreme winter weather of all varieties go bury yourself in a whole somewhere...
The 6z ETA/GFS and now even the MM5 are continuing the trend further S and colder. To be blunt, these models are nothing short of a blizzard with accumulations in excess of 8" from PHL points N and E into NJ, CT, W MA, RI and SE NY. In a stripe from N/C NJ, SE NY, CT and RI a swath of 12 to 20" is set to unleash itself late Tue into Wed AM.
The vorticity maximum in question is now forecast to propagate through S IN, IL, S OH, and just along the Mason Dixon Line. This and the 700mb low passage continues to come in further S on each run of the models, most notably this run on the MM5/GFS. The GFS oddly enough is the wettest model here spitting out close to 1" QPF all snow in PHL with close to 1.5 QPF in NYC.
Other notable features are the excessively high UVV fields projected on nearly every single SR model known to man. Even the coarse grid spacing of the NGM forecasts UVV's near 15 across NJ and E PA by 00z Wed. The ETA/MM5 schemes sky rocket vertical velocities close to 30(m^2/s^2)!!! Freakin incredible! A definitive comma head is visible by 00z Wed and will set up shop just S of PHL by say 15 miles on up into S New England. This will allow copius amounts of wind blown snows to fall in the aforementioned areas. With such a high over QC, CSI banding will be prevalent and whoever gets caught under these bands may EXCEED 20"!! In PHL itself expect a driving sleet storm to heavy snow by 9pm Tue and then 9 hrs of incredible snowfall. IF the trend continues, the initial burst of precip will be predominantly snow instead of sleet which will allow for accumulations in excess of a foot.
Snow to liquid ratios will begin to plummet once the 850mb low transfer occurs. By 6z Wed we should be looking at 15:1 to 20:1 ratios from PHL to S New England, with northernmost areas on the higher end. Soundings show the inital ratios to be hovering in the low teens, but once CAA begins the mid-level warm layer drops like a rock.
Gravity Wave formation is another concern of mine, especially with such a temperature contrast due in part to the intense NAO styled block across Greenland and the equally potent Cuban heat ridge. These two features are the main culprits for the events that are about to take place. Again, they force energy between the two blocks as the only way to stabilize the pattern. But back to GW formation...I see an especially high chance of GW's along the Jersey coastline up into S New England, most notably S CT and RI. This is typically the case in Miller Bs, especially when the vorticity advects into the region.
Not to go without mention is the icestorm in the Carolinas. I really can't comprehend the amount of devastation down there if the current SR projections are correct in QPF output. Looking at the WV, there is a long, deep fetch of equatorial PAC moisture riding along the STJ pulling more moisture out of the GOM as it screams NEward. Current precipitable water analysis shows a stream of 1"+ coming straight out the GOM extending into N GA. This leads me to believe the current projections are correct and therefore a catastrophic and historic ice storm is underway in the Deep South. BE READY!!
Snowfall accumulation totals for secondary redevelopment:
ILG: 3 to 7
PHL: 8 to 14
NYC:12 to 20
All of SE NY, CT, W MA, RI will also fall under the 12 to 20" category. Also note the sharp cutoff on the southern edge, a classic feature of Miller B's.
Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.
6z data set = BLIZZARD for N Mid-Atlantic and NE New England
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
6z data set = BLIZZARD for N Mid-Atlantic and NE New England
Last edited by NJWxGuy on Mon Jan 26, 2004 8:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
Re: 6z data set = BLIZZARD for N Mid-Atlantic and NE New Eng
NJWxGuy wrote:Ever heard the term "if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen"? Well if you can't stand extreme winter weather of all varieties go bury yourself in a whole somewhere...
The 6z ETA/GFS and now even the MM5 are continuing the trend further S and colder. To be blunt, these models are nothing short of a blizzard with accumulations in excess of 8" from PHL points N and E into NJ, CT, W MA, RI and SE NY. In a stripe from N/C NJ, SE NY, CT and RI a swath of 12 to 20" is set to unleash itself late Tue into Wed AM.
The vorticity maximum in question is now forecast to propagate through S IN, IL, S OH, and just along the Mason Dixon Line. This and the 700mb low passage continues to come in further S on each run of the models, most notably this run on the MM5/GFS. The GFS oddly enough is the wettest model here spitting out close to 1" QPF all snow in PHL with close to 1.5 QPF in NYC.
Other notable features are the excessively high UVV fields projected on nearly every single SR model known to man. Even the coarse grid spacing of the NGM forecasts UVV's near 15 across NJ and E PA by 00z Wed. The ETA/MM5 schemes sky rocket vertical velocities close to 30(m^2/s^2)!!! Freakin incredible! A definitive comma head is visible by 00z Wed and will set up shop just S of PHL by say 15 miles on up into S New England. This will allow copius amounts of wind blown snows to fall in the aforementioned areas. With such a high over QC, CSI banding will be prevalent and whoever gets caught under these bands may EXCEED 20"!! In PHL itself expect a driving sleet storm to heavy snow by 9pm Tue and then 9 hrs of incredible snowfall. IF the trend continues, the initial burst of precip will be predominantly snow instead of sleet which will allow for accumulations in excess of a foot.
Snow to liquid ratios will being to plummet once the 850mb low transfer occurs. By 6z Wed we should be looking at 15:1 to 20:1 ratios from PHL to S New England, with northernmost areas on the higher end. Soundings show the inital ratios to be hovering in the low teens, but once CAA begins the mid-level warm layer drops like a rock.
Gravity Wave formation is another concern of mine, especially with such a temperature contrast due in part to the intense NAO styled block across Greenland and the equally potent Cuban heat ridge. These two features are the main culprits for the events that are about to take place. Again, they force energy between the two blocks as the only way to stabilize the pattern. But back to GW formation...I see an especially high chance of GW's along the Jersey coastline up into S New England, most notably S CT and RI. This is typically the case in Miller Bs, especially when the vorticity advects into the region.
Not to go without mention is the icestorm in the Carolinas. I really can't comprehend the amount of devastation down there if the current SR projections are correct in QPF output. Looking at the WV, there is a long, deep fetch of equatorial PAC moisture riding along the STJ pulling more moisture out of the GOM as it screams NEward. Current precipitable water analysis shows a stream of 1"+ coming straight out the GOM extending into N GA. This leads me to believe the current projections are correct and therefore a catastrophic and historic ice storm is underway in the Deep South. BE READY!!
Snowfall accumulation totals for secondary redevelopment:
ILG: 3 to 7
PHL: 8 to 14
NYC:12 to 20
All of SE NY, CT, W MA, RI will also fall under the 12 to 20" category. Also note the sharp cutoff on the southern edge, a classic feature of Miller B's.
Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.
Great discussion dude. When I looked at the 6z data, my eyes just about popped out of my Skull.
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Anonymous
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TheWeatherZone
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Great write-up....hope this thing works out like you say. I saw this eta this am which dumps nearly 2.00" qpf on me in central NJ (while i know some is frz/sleet....still ALOT of snow). I noticed on the 00z eta run how there was some convective precip that showed up in the data, which seemed quite unusual for a winter storm around here. Would that lead to possible thundersnow?
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Guest
TroyNJ wrote:ledzeplinII wrote:great writeup..kudos to the AUTHOR, whoever that truly is.
His name is Andy & is a very talented young man, I suspect will be a fine Met. in the near future.
I know who ANDY is, and I appreciate his posting these thoughts,.....I was wondering who the author of the text is..not Andy's style of writing.
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Fishmn
OH BOY!
Here we go! I didnt think it was possible to get two very good snowstorms in back to back winters, but I guess we may buck the odds. I like your discussion Andy and I hope to see some other WW regulars posting theirs here as well. I havent been able to get on over there since yesterday afternoon. I guess the southern weenies are having their day in the sun so to speak. Only a dusting here in Central NJ so I was hugly dissapointed with this event today. I like to have Wednesday be a digout day so I will be rooting for your forcast to verify.
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Anonymous
Andy: excellent analysis. As Heady Guy stated, the Philly area forecasters are downplaying the expected snow accumulations from the late Tuesday/early Wednesday storm - but a few are starting to catch on (ABC 6, FOX 29). If things keep looking like this throughout today, I would suspect a few local forecasters to start honking tonight for 6+ inches.
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Anonymous
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Guest
Colin wrote:Uh, led, have you seen some of Andy's previous writing?
uhh yes Colin I have...I guess you are baiting me to SPELL IT OUT for you because you sure aren't reading what is easily visible between my lines...so here it is ..LOL.....His normal chatting personal writing style, choice of words, grammar, punctuation, spelling, tone, doesn't match the technical writing style that is presented...Not even close. It appears as a copy and paste, and that's fine if giving proper citation to the author. There is normally very little difference or separation between 2 writing styles, in reality, in one person's personality. If you personally ever posted a technical discussion in your own words, and then posted something non tech or off topic, and you say you authored both ,a reader could undoubtedly tell YOU wrote both..would be apparent with me also...That is the main reason why I, and others, question, who the author is.If it's him, that's GREAT!
Last edited by Guest on Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fishmn
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TheWeatherZone
- Tropical Depression
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Yeah I agree with Fish, Andy seems to be excellent in his weather discussions. One may argue that he copied it, which I highly doubt. I strongly feel as if thats Andys work, the guy seems to know alot of stuff for his age, which IMO is great. Keep us updated Andy, and tell your buddy we want to hear from him too....
Mike~
Mike~
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