My Forecast Map and Thoughts...

[Guest]

This has the potential to be worse then dec 2002. The temps are lower, and more zr will accumulate on surfaces, with sfc temps in the 20s throughout sc/nc/ga, there will be sufficient temps to create crippling problems. Massive power outages are likely if not unavoidable. IMO the power outages may surpass dec 02. If things workout perfect or horrible depending on your perspective, this could be one the most memorable and historic storms in NC/SC history...

[Weather4Life23]

So you are beleiving that RDU will stay in the 20s tomorrow and get major ice acretion. By the way , have you been able to get into wright weather

[Anonymous]

OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH OUCH





Man that is very, very bad indeed,

ICE is one of the very WORST winter precipitation types.

There is absolutely NOTHING good or exciting about ICE.


-JEB.

[Craig286]

Wow....i feel sorry for you guys down there , its gonna be a long few days with no power/trees falling..

[FLguy]

This has the potential to be worse then dec 2002. The temps are lower, and more zr will accumulate on surfaces, with sfc temps in the 20s throughout sc/nc/ga, there will be sufficient temps to create crippling problems. Massive power outages are likely if not unavoidable. IMO the power outages may surpass dec 02. If things workout perfect or horrible depending on your perspective, this could be one the most memorable and historic storms in NC/SC history...

yes, and if you look at the WV loop, you can clearly see the sub-tropical moisture feed coming up out of the Gulf.

[jpp5862]

Any thoughts this morning on where the heaviest precip will ultimately fall? Radar loops seem to indicate it will be farther east, but it may fill in farther east as the morning goes on, I'm not familiar enough with the set up to say. Any thoughts?

[beanskip]

Any thoughts this morning on where the heaviest precip will ultimately fall? Radar loops seem to indicate it will be farther east, but it may fill in farther east as the morning goes on, I'm not familiar enough with the set up to say. Any thoughts?

Was wondering the same thing -- looks like ETA/GFS shifted precip axis east -- not sure I know why. Fetch on radar looks lined up with hit on CLT and even points west (also looks pretty heavy -- yikes!)

[chadtm80]

Great Map HKY!!

[tarheelwx]

Everything has definitely shifted east. If you look at the trajectory of the moisture and precip forming now, its looks as if the western edge of the "significant" or major icing would run from upstate sc to clt to gso. It could even be a little east of that.
Tarheelwx

[jpp5862]

I think it will be east of CLT, at least that is how it appears on the radar now, everything is moving NE and looks to miss us, of course it could fill in more before it gets here.

[raysum]

I think it will be east of CLT, at least that is how it appears on the radar now, everything is moving NE and looks to miss us, of course it could fill in more before it gets here.

I would not write this off right now. In looking at radar you can see that the precip is beginning to respond to the ULL coming in behind it. Also look how the radar is beginning to fill in to the west......

[QCWx]

The radar is lighting up the same color it lit up yesterday so I am praying for no zr....

[raysum]

The radar is lighting up the same color it lit up yesterday so I am praying for no zr....

I agree...I am also praying no zr either.....hopefully just sleet.....

[UnionSCwx]

I am hoping for more Sleet here in Union also. It appears that the moisture is starting to fill in more to the west in Georgia. I still say that Union will be on the line of how far the precip makes it back West. I may be wrong. Moisture just seems to follow the same path with very little north or west movement.

22.3° in Union. Brief period of FZR fell about 30 minutes ago.

[jpp5862]

I think it will be east of CLT, at least that is how it appears on the radar now, everything is moving NE and looks to miss us, of course it could fill in more before it gets here.

I would not write this off right now. In looking at radar you can see that the precip is beginning to respond to the ULL coming in behind it. Also look how the radar is beginning to fill in to the west......

You are right, it is starting to fill in, the precip is farther north in GA now than it was earlier. I don't know much about weather so I didn't know to take the ULL into account, was just going off what I saw. Hopeful for sleet here, that much ZR would be a disaster.

Thanks for the info!

[jpp5862]

QC what are you expecting for us today? Do you still think we will get a significant round of freezing rain later or will it be light precip with just a glaze?

[QCWx]

QC what are you expecting for us today? Do you still think we will get a significant round of freezing rain later or will it be light precip with just a glaze?

Right now, just by judging on trends, I'd say east of CLT is gonna get crushed. Wadesboro, Rockingham, Southern Pines, etc. I think we may be able to escape this one but we'll still recieve some ice.

[jpp5862]

I agree QC. Thanks for your thoughts. I'd rather get sleet or snow, but if we're going to have ice I'd rather it not be extreme.

[JQ Public]

Not looking good for us That radar has a bullseye on us!

[Weather4Life23]

Not looking good for us That radar has a bullseye on us!

I noticed the same thing. The temps are not rising either so it could be one interesting afternoon here in the Triangle area.