My Forecast Map and Thoughts...

JQ Public · #21 Postby **JQ Public** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:22 am

the only thing i am wondering is that the dewpoints are now the same as the temp...so that means probably no more falling temps. will temps then rise as the precip gets in? Will it be freezing rain since it is already in ga and sc...could we just get sleet?

QCWx · #22 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:27 am

I do have a prediction though...

IF the I-95 corridor gets 5"+ of snow the carolina ice storm will be disregarded even though ice accretions could get up to 1" out east.

QCWx · #23 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:32 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS... NOT SURPRISINGLY... NOT HANDLING THE COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE OVER CENTRAL NC VERY WELL THIS MORNING. OBSERVED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AT GSO 8-10 M COOLER THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. (SPECIAL GSO
SOUNDING SCHEDULED TODAY AT 18Z.) DO NOT SEE MUCH TEMP RECOVERY
TODAY (AT BEST 5 DEGREES). MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS AREAL EXTENT
AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH NEXT WAVE CROSSING DEEP SOUTH AT THIS
TIME. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING ICE LIKELY OVER
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC. BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS,
APPEARS THREAT HAS DIMINISHED BUT SOMEWHAT LEARY OF OPTIMISTIC TURN
SUGGEST BY LATEST NGM/ETA GUIDANCE. WITH THAT SAID, WILL EXTEND
WARNING THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING AND SUGGEST ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH NORTH, WITH DAMAGING ICE POTENTIAL OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY EXTEND CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.-WSS

QCWx · #24 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:38 am

By the way, I find this to be amazing..

The Grandfather Mountain swinging bridge station(5,000+ ft) is at 40º while Beaufort, SC is at 37º. Go figure.

JQ Public · #25 Postby **JQ Public** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 10:40 am

QCWx wrote:By the way, I find this to be amazing..

The Grandfather Mountain swinging bridge station(5,000+ ft) is at 40º while Beaufort, SC is at 37º. Go figure.

whoa...the power of CAD!

QCWx · #26 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 11:27 am

News 14 Charlotte is now calling for .75-1.50" ice accretions in it's easternmost counties. This is going to be a horrible disaster out east, in fact it may blow away Dec 02 for those locations.

Weather4Life23 · #27 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 11:37 am

The radar is starting pick up some more echoes in North Carolina. The NWS warning calls for up to .25 acretion, but if we get a heavy band it could be alot worse.

Weather4Life23 · #28 Postby **Weather4Life23** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 11:45 am

I am getting sleet now here in Cary. I guess it is still cold enough aloft.

CThomp8806 · #29 Postby **CThomp8806** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 11:47 am

What about central virginia?

Stormsfury · #30 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:01 pm

One more post before I go back to work from lunch...

CHS soundings indicate that the temperatures here will FALL when the precip moves in in earnest later today/tonight and the bottom line is that they will LIKELY go to a Winter Storm Warning, as they are believing that ¼" of ice will accumulate and the situation is looking worse and worse ... This already looks like a historic hit for The Midlands of South Carolina, with THUNDERSTORMS embedded within the ZR/IP and SFC temperatures continuing in the mid 20's ...

I'm on the edge of my seat ...

SF

verycoolnin · #31 Postby **verycoolnin** » Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:35 pm

What does anyone think the weather will be tonight for yorkcounty, VA (25miles NNW of Norfolk)?

My Forecast Map and Thoughts...

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