12z GFS shows some Great Stuff & some problems

[Guest]

the 12z GFS -- and ETA as well-- shows some great Stuff but classic Miller B problems ( lows that re-develop off the coast)

Lets looks at a few maps

First here is the 700 RH field at 36 hrs.,... TREMENDOUS VVs over the eastern PA NJ and NYC BUT note hpw sharp the cutoff is KEY POINT here folks.... if you are south of the VVs you get NOTHING...

Note how Philly and central NJ gets hosed here...



at the beginning of the event at 850 we can see the SE winds on the I-95 corridor and NJ NYC and LI are too warm for snow




and because of the strong Primary over MICHIGAN ( this is a real problem) there are SE winds at the surface over the I-95 cities from BOS to NJ...


Of course by 1am WED all levels are cold enough for snow -- philly NJ NYC etc but all the rh and VVs are over Lowerr New England LI and NYC -- not much is going ov over central NJ and Philly

based on this and the over wet 12z ETA I would

not go for more than 1-2" in Phlly
under that for S NJ....
eastern PA to central NJ--- say ABE to WRI something like 2-4" or 3-6" at most....
Northern NJ NYC and NE PA 4-8" ....
CT LI MASS Lower eastern NY 6-12 " or 8-14"

[Heady Guy]

Thanks for the post.

[dwang]

Great analysis DT. I also noticed that the GFS was much slower with its precip than the ETA. What is your thinking on this?

[Management]

Very good points DT this situation should be approached with great caution, jumping to the preffered whiter solution is not a lock at this point. I think as this winter has shown mother nature wants it to snow in NYC and 6 + is a safe bet at this point. Perhaps major iciong problems up and down the NJ Turnpike. Great analysis DT, just remember how this cold has out performed this year..

[WEATHER53]

Satellite is interesting with impressive moisture in central atlanta. Now is that supposed to head north and into ohio/michigan because it looks to be heading northeast and not n-nnw.

[JCT777]

I guess we shall see how this all plays out. I am not looking forward to the possibility if a nasty ice event, with only a few inches of snow at the end. I am hopeful that the coastal will get its act together quick enough and far enough south for more snow and less ice.

Thanks for the update, DT.

[Heady Guy]

Well I heard accu weathe ron 106 on my lunch break & elliot was saying sig snowfall possible. Only time will tell.

[TheWeatherZone]

Elliot is a conservative met, so it does look interesting


Mike~

[Stephanie]

The RH levels on the ETA look good but as DT showed above, the GFS doesn't. We'll just have to keep monitoring the models and radars.

[Ginx snewx]

Have to Diagree with DT on SE winds in 95 cities

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html[/img]