6z data set = BLIZZARD for N Mid-Atlantic and NE New England

[hooralph]

I don't question who the author is. Andy's writing has been solid for a few years, if typically heavy on the dramatics.

Question, though: I'm failing to see how any model comes close to blizzard criteria. The isobars look as loosely packed as anything I've ever seen, perhaps because the high pressure is up about Baffin Island. Lots of snow? Sure. Blizzard? I don't get it.

Looks like this is a metro NY storm, though I'd love to see the jog to the North we've all come to love.

[NJWxGuy]

I don't question who the author is. Andy's writing has been solid for a few years, if typically heavy on the dramatics.

Question, though: I'm failing to see how any model comes close to blizzard criteria. The isobars look as loosely packed as anything I've ever seen, perhaps because the high pressure is up about Baffin Island. Lots of snow? Sure. Blizzard? I don't get it.

Looks like this is a metro NY storm, though I'd love to see the jog to the North we've all come to love.

If you look at the current ETA sfc wind projections, winds are forecast 20 to 24kts sustained from NE MD all the way into S New England. With the tight pressure gradient created from the immense arctic high over QC and the rapidly deepening low SHOULD created blizzard-like or complete blizzard conditions regardless of what the models show at this time. I suspect they may be a bit underdone because of the late transfer of the 850mb low, but who knows. Perhaps a better wording would for me to originally say "blizzard-like conditions"?

Thanks for the support too. Only an complete MORON would think I copy and pasted that. It's my classic writing style. I don't know what the F*** Led is on.

[Anonymous]

I don't question who the author is. Andy's writing has been solid for a few years, if typically heavy on the dramatics.

Question, though: I'm failing to see how any model comes close to blizzard criteria. The isobars look as loosely packed as anything I've ever seen, perhaps because the high pressure is up about Baffin Island. Lots of snow? Sure. Blizzard? I don't get it.

Looks like this is a metro NY storm, though I'd love to see the jog to the North we've all come to love.

If you look at the current ETA sfc wind projections, winds are forecast 20 to 24kts sustained from NE MD all the way into S New England. With the tight pressure gradient created from the immense arctic high over QC and the rapidly deepening low SHOULD created blizzard-like or complete blizzard conditions regardless of what the models show at this time. I suspect they may be a bit underdone because of the late transfer of the 850mb low, but who knows. Perhaps a better wording would for me to originally say "blizzard-like conditions"?

Thanks for the support too. Only an complete MORON would think I copy and pasted that. It's my classic writing style. I don't know what the F*** Led is on.

Andy, I supported you dude!! DT seems to think we are in for more rain than frozen...Your thoughts?

[Stephanie]

My only concern is what DT pointed out about the RH levels in the GFS. They look to be just to the north of Philly so we may end of getting screwed with the accumulation. Do you think that will fill in for us down here?

[NJWxGuy]

I don't question who the author is. Andy's writing has been solid for a few years, if typically heavy on the dramatics.

Question, though: I'm failing to see how any model comes close to blizzard criteria. The isobars look as loosely packed as anything I've ever seen, perhaps because the high pressure is up about Baffin Island. Lots of snow? Sure. Blizzard? I don't get it.

Looks like this is a metro NY storm, though I'd love to see the jog to the North we've all come to love.

If you look at the current ETA sfc wind projections, winds are forecast 20 to 24kts sustained from NE MD all the way into S New England. With the tight pressure gradient created from the immense arctic high over QC and the rapidly deepening low SHOULD created blizzard-like or complete blizzard conditions regardless of what the models show at this time. I suspect they may be a bit underdone because of the late transfer of the 850mb low, but who knows. Perhaps a better wording would for me to originally say "blizzard-like conditions"?

Thanks for the support too. Only an complete MORON would think I copy and pasted that. It's my classic writing style. I don't know what the F*** Led is on.

Andy, I supported you dude!! DT seems to think we are in for more rain than frozen...Your thoughts?

This is the same guy that forecasted low 40s in the I-95 Corridor on Tuesday.

[Anonymous]

RAIN?????
I DON'T THINK SO

[Heady Guy]

DT does know his stuff though. Did quite well on this last storm.

[NJWxGuy]

My only concern is what DT pointed out about the RH levels in the GFS. They look to be just to the north of Philly so we may end of getting screwed with the accumulation. Do you think that will fill in for us down here?

I would never ever ever take the GFS in a highly dynamic situation against the ETA/MM5/RGEM. It's simply just illogical to do so. GFS will trend back S anyways. It is the only model that didn't continue the SW trend with the comma head on the 12z data set.

[Stephanie]

My only concern is what DT pointed out about the RH levels in the GFS. They look to be just to the north of Philly so we may end of getting screwed with the accumulation. Do you think that will fill in for us down here?

I would never ever ever take the GFS in a highly dynamic situation against the ETA/MM5/RGEM. It's simply just illogical to do so. GFS will trend back S anyways. It is the only model that didn't continue the SW trend with the comma head on the 12z data set.

Thanks NJ for your forecasts!

[RuggieWeather]

Stephanie I got 4.3" here near Elmer NJ. As far as tomorrow into Tomorrow night the GFS is out to lunch, why do so many people trust that model so much ???? I say here in SJ we get at least 3" to 6" for round two. These storms always throw back precip and moisture into SJ and Delaware Valley when they get this intense !!! (Backlash) and with upper level energy moving from Ohio Valley that will help even more to spin up the surface low !!! Go with ETA on American models and Canadian and European models. That's what I use for guidance in this type of pattern.

[BillyJoe McCallister]

Well he might of did okay in your backyard, but I got half of what he predicted on his last call map. He forecast 4 to 8, barely got two. Very nice write up Andy, hope it pans out for us.

DT does know his stuff though. Did quite well on this last storm.

[Stephanie]

Stephanie I got 4.3" here near Elmer NJ. As far as tomorrow into Tomorrow night the GFS is out to lunch, why do so many people trust that model so much ???? I say here in SJ we get at least 3" to 6" for round two. These storms always throw back precip and moisture into SJ and Delaware Valley when they get this intense !!! (Backlash) and with upper level energy moving from Ohio Valley that will help even more to spin up the surface low !!! Go with ETA on American models and Canadian and European models. That's what I use for guidance in this type of pattern.

I think I had about 4 inches when it ended in Glassboro - it was 3.5" when I left for work today.

If the storm intensifies down by the Carolinas/Virginia coast, we usually do pretty well will these winter Nor'easters.

Thanks for the FYI Ruggie!

[Anonymous]

I feel down and out and frustrated, could someone please reassure me that my big totals will come.

[Four Seasons]

I feel down and out and frustrated, could someone please reassure me that my big totals will come.

It can't be that bad unless you're betting under or over.

[Colin]

Dude, just shut up already! I'm sick and tired of hearing you say, "How much?", "Am I still in for heavy snow?" ... We don't all care about Brick, New Jersey. Enjoy whatever snow you get. OK?

God...

[NJWxGuy]

I feel down and out and frustrated, could someone please reassure me that my big totals will come.

Yes dude, I you'll get your 12 to 20.

[TheWeatherZone]

I feel down and out and frustrated, could someone please reassure me that my big totals will come.

Yes dude, I you'll get your 12 to 20.

Andy, is your buddy (you know who I'm talking about) lol, on for a decent storm for PHL north? BTW thanks for keeping us updated.


Mike~

[Anonymous]

Yep 1evans, you will get your 12 to 20 inches. Dude, you are in a great place for snow with all the arctic air in place this winter AND the Greenland Block's in place and strong besides. You'll get heavy snow for sure!!

Enjoy all that snow!!!!!!


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Wonderful Analysis, Andy!! I would like to say, that west of the NYC area like 20 miles, will see 14-20 inches of snow. ( Do You Agree? or Disagree If You do, would you tell me why? Thanks, Chris

[Snow Plow]

Uh, led, have you seen some of Andy's previous writing?

uhh yes Colin I have...I guess you are baiting me to SPELL IT OUT for you because you sure aren't reading what is easily visible between my lines...so here it is ..LOL.....His normal chatting personal writing style, choice of words, grammar, punctuation, spelling, tone, doesn't match the technical writing style that is presented...Not even close. It appears as a copy and paste, and that's fine if giving proper citation to the author. There is normally very little difference or separation between 2 writing styles, in reality, in one person's personality. If you personally ever posted a technical discussion in your own words, and then posted something non tech or off topic, and you say you authored both ,a reader could undoubtedly tell YOU wrote both..would be apparent with me also...That is the main reason why I, and others, question, who the author is.If it's him, that's GREAT!

Perhaps if you ever stumbled upon the NEMAS site for PHL the line of questioning you have initiated would never have been considered?