Latest radar trend indicate a massive error in the SR models. Precip is blossoming over AL, MISS, and on NNE heading, targeting N GA and western SC/NC. The ULL is now diving into the southern plains/TN valley, this could sharpen up the trough axis, leading to "GELLING" if you will, of the precip ISOHYETS. THis is definitely something to watch, and with HUMIDITIES around 100% in N GA , W SC, W NC, it wont take much to generate precip over these areas. In fact freezing drizzle has dominated the day in these locations...
http://www.weathertap.com/protected/gen ... s_ani.html
Icestorm UNCANCEL
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Weather4Life23
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Anonymous
Re: Icestorm UNCANCEL
HKY_WX2 wrote:Latest radar trend indicate a massive error in the SR models. Precip is blossoming over AL, MISS, and on NNE heading, targeting N GA and western SC/NC. The ULL is now diving into the southern plains/TN valley, this could sharpen up the trough axis, leading to "GELLING" if you will, of the precip ISOHYETS. THis is definitely something to watch, and with HUMIDITIES around 100% in N GA , W SC, W NC, it wont take much to generate precip over these areas. In fact freezing drizzle has dominated the day in these locations...
http://www.weathertap.com/protected/gen ... s_ani.html
Please check out this national radar loop. HKY_WX2 is right, This needs to be carefully watched, because not only will it threaten W NC and SC, but VA may also have to be concerned about this.
Yep this is sure and active weather pattern, and with all the arctic air around, it will be very problematical for a lot of folks. You can't afford to take your eyes off it for even a second, not during this super-active pattern w/cold air PLUS the GREENLAND BLOCKING.
-JEB.
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Stormsfury
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DelStormLover
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Stormsfury
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DelStormLover wrote:Stormsfury wrote:I've had this nagging feeling ... and it feels like Jan 24-25th, 2000 ...
SF
Hey, thats my line!
Anway if youre right, do you mean just the SE or the SE and MA?
Southeast ... since the 18z models totally missed (remember, EVERYONE that the run was run BEFORE this sudden explosion of thunderstorms induced by daytime heating ... Hell, the HPC maps indicates no LESS than 5 little SFC LOWS...
SF
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DelStormLover
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RU848789
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Fury - gotta ask - who's that fine looking woman on your posts?
Obligatory weather content: spoke to my mom in Charlotte, NC and she's received a few inches of sleet and an inch or two of snow on top - very little freezing rain yet, but that could come tonight, although it's only an advisory now.
Obligatory weather content: spoke to my mom in Charlotte, NC and she's received a few inches of sleet and an inch or two of snow on top - very little freezing rain yet, but that could come tonight, although it's only an advisory now.
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Stormsfury
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RU848789 wrote:Fury - gotta ask - who's that fine looking woman on your posts?
Obligatory weather content: spoke to my mom in Charlotte, NC and she's received a few inches of sleet and an inch or two of snow on top - very little freezing rain yet, but that could come tonight, although it's only an advisory now.
Simple NOWCASTING (actually NOT SIMPLE) ... this is the most complex setup and situation I've ever seen ... and the models simply missed the discreet s/w which blew up thunderstorms in AL/MS earlier ...
The avatar is Eliza Dushku (Buffy the Vampire Slayer fame) ...
SF
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-=BTC=-PROFESSOR
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Stormsfury wrote:RU848789 wrote:Fury - gotta ask - who's that fine looking woman on your posts?
Obligatory weather content: spoke to my mom in Charlotte, NC and she's received a few inches of sleet and an inch or two of snow on top - very little freezing rain yet, but that could come tonight, although it's only an advisory now.
Simple NOWCASTING (actually NOT SIMPLE) ... this is the most complex setup and situation I've ever seen ... and the models simply missed the discreet s/w which blew up thunderstorms in AL/MS earlier ...
The avatar is Eliza Dushku (Buffy the Vampire Slayer fame) ...
SF
SF i knew earlier that the eta/gfs were missing the precip along the gulf coast but im really surprised by how much they have missed it in georgia and alabama currently. aside from some freezing drizzle/mist, i pretty much thought this morning it was over for north georgia. ive got a little less than a half inch of ice accumulation currently so anything else could cause power problems. and by the trail of moisture on satellite/radar back down to the gulf coast, another half inch is not out of the question now. especially since the rain wont be *too heavy* which will allow more freezing before runoff. roads in my neck of the woods this morning were pretty bad and i expect refreezing tonight with temps stuck at 28 degrees. suffice it to say the upstate is in for round 2 tonight too. tomorrow mornings travel is going to be a nightmare there as well with temps stuck at 27 or 28 all night too.
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Stormsfury
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-=BTC=-PROFESSOR wrote:Stormsfury wrote:I've had this nagging feeling ... and it feels like Jan 24-25th, 2000 ...
SF
SF are u kidding, u really think this 24 25 2000????????setup???
Reminiscent ...
But here's WHAT'S gotta happen before that setup would even occur ...
1) the 500mb low is WAY too far WEST .. in the Jan 2000 storm, the 500mb low was diving SE and closed off over GA/Carolinas ... this one won't do so ... as this one is moving NE towards the OV, and NOT crossing through the Southeast.
2) the current SFC low must stall offshore from the Carolina Coast ... and wait for the next impulse with the 500mb low crossing over into the Carolinas and induce phasing ... (this is what happened in the Jan 2000 storm, FLguy and I did a behind the scenes study and comparison of maps and such about 3 weeks ago ... I may have some of those maps, but it'll take some time to find) ... yes, this system will transfer (and phase) but nowhere NEAR the fashion in the Jan 2000 storm ...
3) The cold air damming was established before the first wave ... Jan 2000, the cold air damming was established during the 2nd WAVE, and was continuing to build in ... furthermore, since the 500mb cutoff in the Carolinas, it plummeted thickness schemes and significantly cooled the atmosphere, and hence ... the Carolina Crusher ....
So in actuality the storm is very different than the Jan 2000 storm...
Here's Jan 25th, 2000 where the low began to cutoff over South Carolina (as seen in the lowering of heights) then the phase ...
More on the Jan 2000 storm ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... CSnow.html
SF
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