Kocin downplaying snow amounts?

[RU848789]

A few minutes ago, he commented that the storm is likely to move faster than originally forecasted, such that all he would commit to was "6 inches or more" in most of the CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI up to southern NE areas. He didn't offer any reasoning for why, but he did write the book didn't he? Hope he's wrong. Anyone else see this and care to comment?

[NJWxGuy]

Much respect to Kocin for all the great analysis and work he's done on snowstorms of the past, but Model Hugging 101 is in session tonight.

[Heady Guy]

I have seen him drop the bomb before...he may be onto something.

[dafwx]

what Kocin is being influenced by are the new 0z eta and mm5 runs, which are both very intriguing, weird, and confusing. nothing specific being suggested with these latest runs, however they are breaking from the previous forecast agreement that all 4 gfs runs had during the day. could these divergent model solutions indicate a system that will lack organization and potency? possibly, but possibly not. this is just throwing a big monkey wrench right into the forecasts at this time.

[PAwx]

It sures looks like the trend is not our friend tonight! Both ETA/GFS 0z are similar...Fast Moving...Quick dump, and sharp cutoffs...Looks like 6" maybe 8" of snow for C NJ on North...

Maybe 3-6" in C PA through PHL...

What's happening here?

[PAwx]

what Kocin is being influenced by are the new 0z eta and mm5 runs, which are both very intriguing, weird, and confusing. nothing specific being suggested with these latest runs, however they are breaking from the previous forecast agreement that all 4 gfs runs had during the day. could these divergent model solutions indicate a system that will lack organization and potency? possibly, but possibly not. this is just throwing a big monkey wrench right into the forecasts at this time.

ADD the 0z GFS to the mix...It is similar to the 0z ETA

[VortexMax]

what Kocin is being influenced by are the new 0z eta and mm5 runs, which are both very intriguing, weird, and confusing. nothing specific being suggested with these latest runs, however they are breaking from the previous forecast agreement that all 4 gfs runs had during the day. could these divergent model solutions indicate a system that will lack organization and potency? possibly, but possibly not. this is just throwing a big monkey wrench right into the forecasts at this time.

00Z ETA and 00Z GFS definately converging on a weaker solution - and more offshore. This is good for those in the I-95 corridor (less chance of any mix working in). QPF will be sufficient to produce 6-12" generally. Northern cutoff of decent qpf is around my area - ALB. I suspect ALB may drop WSW N of ALB in morning package if 06Z runs continue the trend.

[dafwx]

what Kocin is being influenced by are the new 0z eta and mm5 runs, which are both very intriguing, weird, and confusing. nothing specific being suggested with these latest runs, however they are breaking from the previous forecast agreement that all 4 gfs runs had during the day. could these divergent model solutions indicate a system that will lack organization and potency? possibly, but possibly not. this is just throwing a big monkey wrench right into the forecasts at this time.

00Z ETA and 00Z GFS definately converging on a weaker solution - and more offshore. This is good for those in the I-95 corridor (less chance of any mix working in). QPF will be sufficient to produce 6-12" generally. Northern cutoff of decent qpf is around my area - ALB. I suspect ALB may drop WSW N of ALB in morning package if 06Z runs continue the trend.

add to it that it is increasingly suggested that we will see 2 coastal low pressure centers develop,,converging into one elongated center. this will lead to BIG time losses in the organization department. those heavy bands we were counting on may not be able to set up. wow, this sucks male genitals.

good night , once again.

[snowstorm]

NO NO NO

STOP THE TREND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lets hope this doesn't continue on the next runs!

[Anonymous]

I am no professional here, but lets just take a deep breath and think this through.

One thing I have seen since this cold and very stromy pattern began is that storm trends have become rather unpredictable, if anything. You don't have to be an HM or SF to see that folks.

So, I think this is just a hiccup.......and tomorrow, the SNE and NE will be back to looking forward to some really great snow totals from the upcoming storm.

Note where I live too, N VA, NOT the NE Corridor.

I bet this is just a hiccup, and by tomorrow, the models will be back on track with a presentation of a well-organized storm that will dump big snows right on target in the SNE and on into the NE.

Just my two cents.........

Plus, I WANT YOU GUYS to get your snow!!!! You DESERVE IT!!! It's COMING!!!! Have faith!!!


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Snowy11]

There used to be a time when most people got really excited about a 6 - 10" snowfall (I remember as a kid growing up in MA in the 70's that the magic 6 - 10 prediction was a GOOD thing !!!). I think some people have experienced too many historic snowstorms recently that their expectations/enjoyment of current/future storms has been altered. Not every storm will be historic - just enjoy whatever comes your way.

[JCT777]

Good advice, snowy11. Another piece of advice - let's just wait and see how the event unfolds. There could still be some surprises.

[RU848789]

Looks like Mr. Kocin knew what he was talking about last night. As far as I can tell, he was the first one to seriously question the precip amounts and speed of the storm, at least on TV. Well, it's disappointing to go from 12" to 5", but 5" still beats the crap out of a cold rain.