6z data set = BLIZZARD for N Mid-Atlantic and NE New England

[NJWxGuy]

Quick update...

PHL will not be receiving 8 to 14, but will downgrade to 6 to 10. Still a major snowfall, but not quite paralyzing.

Further N and E from there in the areas mentioned in the original post expect a 12 to 20" band with some totals topping out near 2 ft in SE NY and W CT.

[mulen]

Great writeup jersey hope it pan's out do you speak with AZ at all would love to know his take on this ?

[NJWxGuy]

BUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSTTTTTT!!!!

[WEATHER53]

Andy, you are my favorite from over there and the only one I have ever met. I was given the boot not for the rumored multiple ids, heck probably 50+ posters have multiple ids so if I had one how would I have been any different, but for sending an e-mail, completely non profane in nature, which simply stated that repeated outages during a snowstorm is a disgrace. I appreciate you admitting to the bust, it is part of your and my character to be willing to do so. What I am curious about is two of the big 5 over there went for 12-18 for Boston on Monday, backed down a bit today, and coming in at around 8 seems like a huge bust to me but all I can see is accolades. It is fascinating how weather bulletin boards have evolved from rather smallish technicial discussions to over the top personal attacks and unrelenting "storms of the centuries" around every corner, with only a tiny minority willing to admit they erred and freqeuntly stating "I never said 12-18 for Boston".

[TheWeatherZone]

BUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSTTTTTT!!!!

Get em next time Andy.... Keep us updated on the next biggie down the road...

Mike~

[JCT777]

Don't worry about it, Andy. I enjoy reading your thoughts about upcoming storms.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don't worry about it, Andy. I enjoy reading your thoughts about upcoming storms.

Same Here, John.

[Anonymous]

Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.

LMAO!!!

[NJWxGuy]

Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.

LMAO!!!

Asinine, isn't it?

[Anonymous]

Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.

LMAO!!!

Asinine, isn't it?

but if you didnt predict a historical storm every time, it just wouldnt be the same.

[WEATHER53]

The inequity or hypocriticalness of it all is Andy takes the guff for going big while the pied piper of conflict, and even some of the gentler souls, are allowed to fade away as to their busts. We have had two events in a row where a lot of the "biggies" were going for 12"+ for DC to Boston so Andy is by no menas meriting being singled out.

[Guest]

ever here the phrase if you aren't a meteorologist maybe you should NOT pretend that you are one?".....


what is QC? what is CSI?

why were gravity waves so important in your forecast? did they contribute to the huge bust in your snowfall forecast? over philly?

I am surprised that there were No updates on the 12 to 20 inches for NYC and all of lower New england.... yes I went for Ice storm to but I backed out of it 36- 48 hrs before the event

and yes I had too much snow over Boston as well... as did most . But I find it strange that your reaching to find a way to get the big snows--- possibly over a foot -- into philly also happens to be where or near where you live

Ever heard the term "if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen"? Well if you can't stand extreme winter weather of all varieties go bury yourself in a whole somewhere...

The 6z ETA/GFS and now even the MM5 are continuing the trend further S and colder. To be blunt, these models are nothing short of a blizzard with accumulations in excess of 8" from PHL points N and E into NJ, CT, W MA, RI and SE NY. In a stripe from N/C NJ, SE NY, CT and RI a swath of 12 to 20" is set to unleash itself late Tue into Wed AM.

The vorticity maximum in question is now forecast to propagate through S IN, IL, S OH, and just along the Mason Dixon Line. This and the 700mb low passage continues to come in further S on each run of the models, most notably this run on the MM5/GFS. The GFS oddly enough is the wettest model here spitting out close to 1" QPF all snow in PHL with close to 1.5 QPF in NYC.

Other notable features are the excessively high UVV fields projected on nearly every single SR model known to man. Even the coarse grid spacing of the NGM forecasts UVV's near 15 across NJ and E PA by 00z Wed. The ETA/MM5 schemes sky rocket vertical velocities close to 30(m^2/s^2)!!! Freakin incredible! A definitive comma head is visible by 00z Wed and will set up shop just S of PHL by say 15 miles on up into S New England. This will allow copius amounts of wind blown snows to fall in the aforementioned areas. With such a high over QC, CSI banding will be prevalent and whoever gets caught under these bands may EXCEED 20"!! In PHL itself expect a driving sleet storm to heavy snow by 9pm Tue and then 9 hrs of incredible snowfall. IF the trend continues, the initial burst of precip will be predominantly snow instead of sleet which will allow for accumulations in excess of a foot.

Snow to liquid ratios will begin to plummet once the 850mb low transfer occurs. By 6z Wed we should be looking at 15:1 to 20:1 ratios from PHL to S New England, with northernmost areas on the higher end. Soundings show the inital ratios to be hovering in the low teens, but once CAA begins the mid-level warm layer drops like a rock.

Gravity Wave formation is another concern of mine, especially with such a temperature contrast due in part to the intense NAO styled block across Greenland and the equally potent Cuban heat ridge. These two features are the main culprits for the events that are about to take place. Again, they force energy between the two blocks as the only way to stabilize the pattern. But back to GW formation...I see an especially high chance of GW's along the Jersey coastline up into S New England, most notably S CT and RI. This is typically the case in Miller Bs, especially when the vorticity advects into the region.

Not to go without mention is the icestorm in the Carolinas. I really can't comprehend the amount of devastation down there if the current SR projections are correct in QPF output. Looking at the WV, there is a long, deep fetch of equatorial PAC moisture riding along the STJ pulling more moisture out of the GOM as it screams NEward. Current precipitable water analysis shows a stream of 1"+ coming straight out the GOM extending into N GA. This leads me to believe the current projections are correct and therefore a catastrophic and historic ice storm is underway in the Deep South. BE READY!!

Snowfall accumulation totals for secondary redevelopment:

ILG: 3 to 7

PHL: 8 to 14

NYC:12 to 20

All of SE NY, CT, W MA, RI will also fall under the 12 to 20" category. Also note the sharp cutoff on the southern edge, a classic feature of Miller B's.

Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.

[NJwx15]

u win some u lose some..tough storm andy to say the least...atleast u gave me a good nowcast last night when i was getting a raging sleet storm and doubted i would get 2"...i did in fact get near that 6" u assured me of so thanks for helping me keep my cool last night lol

[NJWxGuy]

ever here the phrase if you aren't a meteorologist maybe you should NOT pretend that you are one?".....


what is QC? what is CSI?

why were gravity waves so important in your forecast? did they contribute to the huge bust in your snowfall forecast? over philly?

I am surprised that there were No updates on the 12 to 20 inches for NYC and all of lower New england.... yes I went for Ice storm to but I backed out of it 36- 48 hrs before the event

and yes I had too much snow over Boston as well... as did most . But I find it strange that your reaching to find a way to get the big snows--- possibly over a foot -- into philly also happens to be where or near where you live

Ever heard the term "if you can't stand the heat get out of the kitchen"? Well if you can't stand extreme winter weather of all varieties go bury yourself in a whole somewhere...

The 6z ETA/GFS and now even the MM5 are continuing the trend further S and colder. To be blunt, these models are nothing short of a blizzard with accumulations in excess of 8" from PHL points N and E into NJ, CT, W MA, RI and SE NY. In a stripe from N/C NJ, SE NY, CT and RI a swath of 12 to 20" is set to unleash itself late Tue into Wed AM.

The vorticity maximum in question is now forecast to propagate through S IN, IL, S OH, and just along the Mason Dixon Line. This and the 700mb low passage continues to come in further S on each run of the models, most notably this run on the MM5/GFS. The GFS oddly enough is the wettest model here spitting out close to 1" QPF all snow in PHL with close to 1.5 QPF in NYC.

Other notable features are the excessively high UVV fields projected on nearly every single SR model known to man. Even the coarse grid spacing of the NGM forecasts UVV's near 15 across NJ and E PA by 00z Wed. The ETA/MM5 schemes sky rocket vertical velocities close to 30(m^2/s^2)!!! Freakin incredible! A definitive comma head is visible by 00z Wed and will set up shop just S of PHL by say 15 miles on up into S New England. This will allow copius amounts of wind blown snows to fall in the aforementioned areas. With such a high over QC, CSI banding will be prevalent and whoever gets caught under these bands may EXCEED 20"!! In PHL itself expect a driving sleet storm to heavy snow by 9pm Tue and then 9 hrs of incredible snowfall. IF the trend continues, the initial burst of precip will be predominantly snow instead of sleet which will allow for accumulations in excess of a foot.

Snow to liquid ratios will begin to plummet once the 850mb low transfer occurs. By 6z Wed we should be looking at 15:1 to 20:1 ratios from PHL to S New England, with northernmost areas on the higher end. Soundings show the inital ratios to be hovering in the low teens, but once CAA begins the mid-level warm layer drops like a rock.

Gravity Wave formation is another concern of mine, especially with such a temperature contrast due in part to the intense NAO styled block across Greenland and the equally potent Cuban heat ridge. These two features are the main culprits for the events that are about to take place. Again, they force energy between the two blocks as the only way to stabilize the pattern. But back to GW formation...I see an especially high chance of GW's along the Jersey coastline up into S New England, most notably S CT and RI. This is typically the case in Miller Bs, especially when the vorticity advects into the region.

Not to go without mention is the icestorm in the Carolinas. I really can't comprehend the amount of devastation down there if the current SR projections are correct in QPF output. Looking at the WV, there is a long, deep fetch of equatorial PAC moisture riding along the STJ pulling more moisture out of the GOM as it screams NEward. Current precipitable water analysis shows a stream of 1"+ coming straight out the GOM extending into N GA. This leads me to believe the current projections are correct and therefore a catastrophic and historic ice storm is underway in the Deep South. BE READY!!

Snowfall accumulation totals for secondary redevelopment:

ILG: 3 to 7

PHL: 8 to 14

NYC:12 to 20

All of SE NY, CT, W MA, RI will also fall under the 12 to 20" category. Also note the sharp cutoff on the southern edge, a classic feature of Miller B's.

Only other thing I can say is sit back, relax, enjoy and be as safe and prepared as possible! We just may be witnessing one of the most prolific snow/ice producers of our time. Not to mention the excitement, complexity and duration!.

So how did that low 40s forecast for the coastal plain on Tue pan out for ya? YOU call yourself a meteorologist and could ACTUALLY make such a call like that? GIVE ME A BREAK!!

QC = Quebec

CSI = Conditional Symmetric Instability a.k.a slantwise convection

Gravity Wave formation is common among Miller B's because of large amounts of energy present which transfers to the coast causing rapid deepening and a usually rather stiff LL/MLJ is present. That, however, did not happen as the transfer happened far later than even any data had shown and with what I saw there were no GW's. I busted just as bad as every other forecaster did, INCLUDING YOURSELF. You did not bail on your hefty snow totals 36hrs prior to the event so don't even try to talk your way out of of this one.

[li-mike]

On the positive side a lot of Long island Verified between 12-15 Inches pretty close to 20 but not quite.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Andy, You sure know your meteorology.... I am wondering, Is it ok if I talk to you by e-mail? Just wondering....... Oh, Do you have AIM? Thank You......... Get 'em Next time, Man.

[NJWxGuy]

Andy, You sure know your meteorology.... I am wondering, Is it ok if I talk to you by e-mail? Just wondering....... Oh, Do you have AIM? Thank You......... Get 'em Next time, Man.

Yeah, sure....Anybody can email me. Thanks for the kind words, but I still busted and I still have a lot of learning to do.

exactuweather@comcast.net

[NJWxGuy]

On the positive side a lot of Long island Verified between 12-15 Inches pretty close to 20 but not quite.

Yep, only place I came close lol.

[Winnipesaukee]

Andy, You sure know your meteorology.... I am wondering, Is it ok if I talk to you by e-mail? Just wondering....... Oh, Do you have AIM? Thank You......... Get 'em Next time, Man.

Yeah, sure....Anybody can email me. Thanks for the kind words, but I still busted and I still have a lot of learning to do.

exactuweather@comcast.net

You sure seem to have turned into a relaxed nice guy all of the sudden, compared to the blaze of glory you went down in on WWBB.

[NJWxGuy]

Andy, You sure know your meteorology.... I am wondering, Is it ok if I talk to you by e-mail? Just wondering....... Oh, Do you have AIM? Thank You......... Get 'em Next time, Man.

Yeah, sure....Anybody can email me. Thanks for the kind words, but I still busted and I still have a lot of learning to do.

exactuweather@comcast.net

You sure seem to have turned into a relaxed nice guy all of the sudden, compared to the blaze of glory you went down in on WWBB.

Yeah because I'm generally not that type of person, but that place just brought the worst out in me. The banning of HM was the last straw and if I was faced with that decision again I would once again tell Eric to get a f'ing grip.