LWX starting to hint at a possible significant storm next...

[Cheesy_Poofs]

LWX is starting to hint at a possible significant storm next week, in their AFD. Here is a part of their AFD:

" FAVOR THE UKMET/EUROPEAN FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LEADS COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH HOLDS INTO PLACE...AND DELAYED PRECIPITATION ONSET NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPS.

CURRENT TRENDS AND CDC 6-10 DAY 250MB JET/500MB HEIGHT PATTERNS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A
DOMINATE ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GIVEN A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET...THIS PATTERN LOOKS
CONDUCIVE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM NEXT WEEK."

[JCT777]

There is definitely the chance of a significant storm next week.

[GRweatherman]

wow - do i really want to get my hopes up again??? ok, bring it on!!

[Anonymous]

MORE SNOW!!! MORE SNOW!!!! JUST BRING IT!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!




-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, John, HM is saying a possible MECS Feb 5th!

[JCT777]

2/5-2/7 could feature a major storm. And the Monday/Tuesday (2/2-2/3) time frame still has possibilities.

[Fishmn]

I'm sorry. The models can say all they want. I wont believe or get interested untill 3 days prior when most models are close to agreeing. Look at yesterday. Everyone was set for a 12"+ event only to have it downgraded 12 hours prior. Anything can happen and usually does.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Here is a part of LWX'S afternoon AFD....they still think a Significant storm is possible Monday/Tuesday....

" MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIG STORM MON AND TUE ALG THE EAST COAST. TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY
DETAILS WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE RA
OR SN MON-TUE. "

[Anonymous]

I hope we have enough cold air available, as of now it looks like it may be a tad to warm.

[Anonymous]

It is still 5 days out on the Monday/Tuesday system, so a lot can happen. Hopefully something will set up that will give many places all along the East Coast some good snow accumulations.

But definately, the SNE and NE are in the running for this one.


-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! JUST BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

I think the threat for Feb 2-3 is looking pretty good -- many models still showing a stormy scenario, even if the GFS insists on bringing in warm air. Hopefully we'll see another CAD episode if this is in fact a secondary development/Miller B scenario. Good to see LWX including this in their forecasts, sometimes they seem to ignore things until they're closer in. The fact that they're showing this threat couldn't have anything to do with the fact that the 12z GFS is showing the coastal storm, could it?

[JCT777]

I saw this from one of the MD NWS discussions, in relation to the Monday/Tuesday threat:

AS MID LVL ENERGY REACHES THE ERN STATES... SFC LOW PRES SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SERN COAST AND LIFT NNEWD JUST OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENG COAST... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ALONG PARTS OF THE E COAST. GFS RUNS KEEP MAJORITY OF PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT RECENT HISTORY WOULD RECOMMEND MORE WINTRY PRECIP THAN THE GFS SHOWS.

[Anonymous]

If we have to take non-snow precip with this one in N VA, I'll cheerfully take sleet and frzra over plain rain. I love snow, but if we can add another 2 inches of sleet to our snowpack here I am all for it. I'll take a quarter inch of frzra too, that won't hurt the power or trees any.

But, I would LOVE to see about 12 or more inches of snow!!!!!!

-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!

[WEATHER53]

The nent two events, Fri and Sun/Mon are clipper type perturbations which will serve to reinforce the cold air but will be absent any stj/gulf involvement. The event after that will feature gulf/stj involvement. I had debated this Jan versus last Jan as to the fact that this Jan had many cold components that last Jan did not and now with 6 straight days of not being above freezing we have another compelling details for this being at least as significant as last Jan and if we go back to 1974 to just round it off to a 30 year round number I think we can now put This Jan, absent the first 5 days so let's just say this cold streak as inside the top 10 since 1974 for Dc area. Not 1977 or 1994 in duration nor 82 nor 85 in departures but a very real heavy hitter as far as cold streaks are concerned.

[Guest]

53...I will grant you one definitive cold anomaly this JAN vs. last...9 out of the past 10 days in a row have failed to get above freezing for hi and lo.....if it weren't for that mid 40s on 1/22, this would have made quite a streak.

[Guest]

Yuppers been saying this since last friday

LWX is starting to hint at a possible significant storm next week, in their AFD. Here is a part of their AFD:

" FAVOR THE UKMET/EUROPEAN FOR THEIR CONSISTENCY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LEADS COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH HOLDS INTO PLACE...AND DELAYED PRECIPITATION ONSET NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPS.

CURRENT TRENDS AND CDC 6-10 DAY 250MB JET/500MB HEIGHT PATTERNS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A
DOMINATE ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GIVEN A STRONG ENOUGH WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC JET...THIS PATTERN LOOKS
CONDUCIVE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT STORM NEXT WEEK."

[Guest]

I dont think the FEB 2 - 3 event is a snow event in the MA--- rain...
New England looks good for snow.

I think the threat for Feb 2-3 is looking pretty good -- many models still showing a stormy scenario, even if the GFS insists on bringing in warm air. Hopefully we'll see another CAD episode if this is in fact a secondary development/Miller B scenario. Good to see LWX including this in their forecasts, sometimes they seem to ignore things until they're closer in. The fact that they're showing this threat couldn't have anything to do with the fact that the 12z GFS is showing the coastal storm, could it?