Brief thoughts of the potentials for Sun/Mon storm...

[Stormsfury]

Brief discussion updated on my website ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com (My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

SF

[Guest]

Nice discussion. However the problem i have with this is the high itself looks to be located off the eastcoast which under most circumstances would suggest a se to e wind which as im sure you know would help to rapidly erode any cold air left east of the Apps. At this point i just dont see the threat for the i95 corridor from the Carolinas on up to Philly for the most part. Maybe some snow or mixed precip at the onset but from what im seeing it looks like a change to rain for most areas. N & W of Philly it depends on where the coastal should one develop happens to be. Just too early yet to hang your hat on this one. Timing imo just dont seem right with it and nor does the set up for east of the apps anyways in the above mentioned areas.

[Steve H.]

Well appears the GFS is a bit fast bringing the storm in early mid week. Jury still hearing evidence will caucus over the weekend But much uncertainty with the early - mid week storm. Since the glaciers have moved south to 40N (snowpack), let's see if thiis will have an affect on how this sets up. In the sprit of true weenieism here's NWS NYthis am:

NEXT REAL PROBLEM IS THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK PERIOD. POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WX MAKER IN THE OFFING FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ECMWF/CANADIAN BRINGS LOPRES TO OUR WEST...LIKELY BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. GFS/UKMET ARE HINTING AT STRONG COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT TUE AND

WED...WITH A BIG WINTRY MESS ON OUR HANDS...BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT

SOME LIQUID DOWN HERE EVEN WITH THIS SOLN SINCE WE WON'T HAVE

BITTERLY COLD AIR IN PLACE TO START. WILL PLAY IT SAFE RIGHT NOW AND

GO WITH CHC OF RAIN/SNOW/WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT THRU WED ALL ZONES.

WILL BE ABLE TO NARROW THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH 6-15" OF SOLID SNOWCOVER IN THIS AREA...WOULD THINK A MORE

EASTERN ROUTE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS ONE...AS LOW PRES TRIES
tO DVLP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THE SNOWFALL HAS LEFT BEHIND.

[Stormsfury]

Which brings up another good point ..

Current snowcover and the current UNDERPROGGING of SFC temperatures ... and also, remember, the GFS last week totally fouled up the CAD depiction, horribly ... which lends SOME credence that it's ALREADY picking up the signature from this far out, and in the last event (which was one of the strongest CAD events I've seen). The problem lies with NO 50/50 Low afterwards, but the potential exists that it retrogrades back towards a 50/50 position (although, not classic) ...

Two different snowcover maps ...




Anyway, already the Southeast WFO's are already a buzzing about the potentials and lessons learned from the last storm have already make these offices take notice ...

This mornings 06z ETA/GFS are both now bringing a small coastal low up towards the Southeast States just in time with the damming coming down strong. The GFS is a little faster and more offshore with the 500mb vort at the 84 hour time frame ... although, TD's are gonna be key as well, especially if a sufficient moisture feed overruns over the top of the wedging signature ... and if the 50/50 LOW can hold it's ground and NOT be shunted out ...

06z ETA 84 hours.




06z GFS 84 hours.




SF

[Stormsfury]

00z NOGAPS (TIME SENSITIVE) January 29th, 2004

NOGAPS Loop

[JCT777]

The NOGAPs implies a major east coast storm. I am hoping it has the right idea!

[donsutherland1]

Good discussion, SF.

At this time, given the model uncertainties, I'm far from ready to commit to the nature of the upcoming event. However, I do believe that the more wintry scenario is as much in the ballgame as the wetter/warmer one.

A continuation of blocking (NAO remains negative per ensembles), a 50-50 low (or some semblance of one), and a more progressive scenario than shown on the ECMWF (e.g., less holding back of the system in the SW) would help offer at least the opportunity for another important winter storm.

Given the SOI, I believe one can reasonably count on a more progressive scenario than the ECMWF implies as the pattern could remain fairly progressive for the first week to ten days in February.

Given the NAO ensemble forecast, I believe one will probably see at least some blocking--e.g., no stricly Lake cutters but rather Miller B systems.

The 50-50 low remains an open issue at this time.

[Steve H.]

If I was still living in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, I'm kinda likin' the 12ZGFS. Lotsa potential with 3 systems. Do I sense a rebuild of 50/50 again? Doesn't look like the cold breaks in the east on this run.

[Stormsfury]

If I was still living in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, I'm kinda likin' the 12ZGFS. Lotsa potential with 3 systems. Do I sense a rebuild of 50/50 again? Doesn't look like the cold breaks in the east on this run.

Looks like the 12z GFS rebuilds the 50/50 low PER the OV low (transferrance to the coast) and setups the stage for the 5th-7th event, which LOOKS to be a HUGE SECS/MECS threat ...

SF

[Stephanie]

If I was still living in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, I'm kinda likin' the 12ZGFS. Lotsa potential with 3 systems. Do I sense a rebuild of 50/50 again? Doesn't look like the cold breaks in the east on this run.

I was going to say that it looks too warm also for a snow storm. I guess it's the potential that's the most intriguing.

[CaptinCrunch]

BOY THIS IS FUN, I'AM HAVING FUN ARE YOU??

[Guest]

If I was still living in the Mid-Atlantic/NE, I'm kinda likin' the 12ZGFS. Lotsa potential with 3 systems. Do I sense a rebuild of 50/50 again? Doesn't look like the cold breaks in the east on this run.

I was going to say that it looks too warm also for a snow storm. I guess it's the potential that's the most intriguing.

Thats the point i was making in my last post. Especially along the i95 corridor from NYC South. I just dont see a full blown snowstorm (Or a repeat of the last event) for those areas. May have some snow or mixed precip to start and at the end but most of everything i see as rain. I know some probably dont wanna hear it but other then that nogaps nothing really shows a i95 big snowstorm with that system.

I will say one other thing that SF mentioned and thats the under progged temps as of late which is the only reason i even mention snow or mixed precip at the onset of the system. Had it not been for that trend as of late i would be going with mainly all rain Carolinas to about Philly and perhaps some snow at the end.

Either way its still early so dont write it off just yet. Still plenty of time.