My best snow feeling so far this season

[WEATHER53]

For the late next week. The next two events will be clipper types for DC area, serving to reinforce the cold air, most everyone coming around now to fact that at least thru 2/7 we are locked into the cold. By late next week we have highs northwest of great lakes and over maine with low pressure developing in southeastern texas, it will not be able to move into the ohio valley, it will move along and up the coast and the only fly in the ointment is the location when it gets to DC area, not sure if it will be east or west of norfolk but it looks strong enough that we need it east of norfolk or too much mild air. This is best set up I have seen this season.

[Anonymous]

Bring the SNOW!!
Bring the COLD!!


Just Bring It!!!



-ICE MAN JEB!!!

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, W53. The system late next week has potential to be a major winter storm.

[Lowpressure]

Not sure D.C will be cold enough this time around. I hope so, but am not convinced they will be. After several days below forecast, today Northern Virginia warmed up nicely on westerly winds, some stations near 47 degrees. D.C at 37. Clippers need to be cold, but CAD is not as strong currently. If CAD is not reinforced soon-rain for D.C. The setup is good, temps are the question W53.

[Anonymous]

so are you saying like locations like philadelphia New York City and Boston could bet a potental major winter storm?

[Lowpressure]

As has been the case most of this winter- temps are marginal during precip events here in D.C. When it is bone cold, moisture stays north. When it is stormy, warm air moves in above and we get a change over. Last week it was so cold and dry that half the storm passed us by overhead until the atmosphere was miost enough. While we go through this, Maryland and points north get plenty of snow, sometimes only 100 miles north while we watch. This storm and the one following could go either way, many variables at this point. I would say that points North of Philly have a better snow opportunity with the next system.

[WEATHER53]

For the late next week. The next two events will be clipper types for DC area, serving to reinforce the cold air, most everyone coming around now to fact that at least thru 2/7 we are locked into the cold. By late next week we have highs northwest of great lakes and over maine with low pressure developing in southeastern texas, it will not be able to move into the ohio valley, it will move along and up the coast and the only fly in the ointment is the location when it gets to DC area, not sure if it will be east or west of norfolk but it looks strong enough that we need it east of norfolk or too much mild air. This is best set up I have seen this season.

It is shocking, shockingly silly, to see the same mistake being repeated again which is the temps in the 5 days period, Wed-Fri next week, as being portrayed in the 40's for DC area. Once again we may catch a one day mild up to 40 but not 3 straight days of 40's. I think you are going to see the models, plus actual reality, trend drier on the early week storm and jucier on the late week storm.

[Guest]

Next weeks 2nd event looks to be huge for alot of folks and yes including the OV. I was just looking at this on the models and its pretty much held the same now for most of this week. However seeing how were getting into the 5 to 6 day time frame i expect the models to start bouncing this system around for a few days before they com back to the solution they have had for the last several days such as they have with the Sun/Mon event which now they models have begun trending back to what they were a few days ago with a track thru the OV and a redevelopment on the VA coast or just onshore there.

[Stormsfury]

THe ECMWF depiction of a MAJOR CAD event on Day 6 looks absolutely great, but the Day 7 depiction is flat out screwed up ... once again, the EC screws up the southern s/w energy, and thus PHASES early again ... and it way too quick to erode the CAD with a 50/50 low in place ... not gonna happen ...

This FORCES the hand that the primary low is further south and east with secondary development off the coast - OR - the primary low is ok, but secondary cyclogenesis MUST occur around the wedge offshore of the MA or SE coasts ...

SF

[WEATHER53]

What is being overplayed here is the snowpack but what is being underplayed is that for about the last 3 weeks there has been a pattern to warm things up aloft too much. The snow pack could prolong the freezing rain, it will not have an effect above about 100 feet. The cold air is not as good as last storm but I don't think the western low will be as strong thus not throwing up as much warm air. I think DC metro sees snow beginning after dark and areas like DCA get 1- 2", IAD 2-4, then a period of sleet and freezing rain, but still no major ice storm, until a change back to snow near the end with an additional 1-2".

[Anonymous]

where did you get for event 1 that it would be a clipper? lol

[WEATHER53]

That's what it looked like 5 days ago, pretty easy to take a pot shot now that the event is on top of us, where was your derisive post 3,4,5 days ago-lol

[JQ Public]

Bring the SNOW!!
Bring the COLD!!


Just Bring It!!!



-ICE MAN JEB!!!

"OH, ITS ALREADY BEEN BROUGHTEN!" lol jk...if you haven't watched the movie they said it in then ya wouldn't understand

[Anonymous]

That's what it looked like 5 days ago, pretty easy to take a pot shot now that the event is on top of us, where was your derisive post 3,4,5 days ago-lol

lol---the models never showed this being a clipper even from 5 days out---i thought you were tired or something from your ski trip so i didnt say anything.

[WEATHER53]

For the late next week. The next two events will be clipper types for DC area, serving to reinforce the cold air, most everyone coming around now to fact that at least thru 2/7 we are locked into the cold. By late next week we have highs northwest of great lakes and over maine with low pressure developing in southeastern texas, it will not be able to move into the ohio valley, it will move along and up the coast and the only fly in the ointment is the location when it gets to DC area, not sure if it will be east or west of norfolk but it looks strong enough that we need it east of norfolk or too much mild air. This is best set up I have seen this season.

Written over a week ago, the first event was a clipper, the second was not but also was not a snow maker for DC, now comes the third; the "late next week" which is now the late this week.. As of early Wednesday this is being forecasted as a sleet/fr rain to rain event. I still maintain the the locations of the high pressures will preclude an ohio valley move. Also, lows coming off southern Texas coastal area do not have a history of Ohio valley moves. The cold air may not be great, but it will be colder than the Tuesday event and surely a better location of the low. I think we in DC area are in for a suprise of accumulating snow.

[Anonymous]

53...IMHO...I still think this will be mainly a rain maker for the DC area, some mix, to me the CAD is weak. I-95 Richmond, Fredericksburg, DC...rain and lots of it.

[JCT777]

Hmmm, the battle lines have been drawn. BEF and many of the models say mostly rain for the upcoming storm for BWI/DC. W53 (and to some extent LC and JB) say there will be more snow/ice than rain. Of course, I hope for more snow. But it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Lowpressure]

For what it is worth NWS D.C states they will be issuing WSWatches for at least portions of the CWA later.

[WEATHER53]

Just based on history the idea that the cold air will already be off the mid atlantic coast by late Thurs/ early Friday seems off as the cold air does not start to build in until after dark on Wednesday

[Anonymous]

You'd best get out the rain gear and an umbrella. Watch your local streams too. Lots of rain inbound, could start out as a flurry/fifteen sleet pellets, and a slapdash of frzra than the rainy party gets underway. I am very, very glad I do not live in a low-lying area.


-Jeb