18z gfs
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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FLguy
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Re: 18z gfs
Dj3 wrote:Whats your guys take on this? They have up to 1.5 liquid qpf near my area (pittsburgh). I know the gfs can not be taken to seriously but would this precip be rain or snow?
taken at face value (and no other assumptions will be made here since its an intermediate run of the GFS) that would be a HIT for much of PA/NY/ and interior new england. any way you slice this event it looks to be more of an inland problem with relationship to snow. there could be icing problems as well SE of the heavy snow zone.
its too early to make any kind of skillfull assessment of where the RA/SN lines set up or who gets IP/ZRA and who gets mainly wind whipped RA as compared to all snow.
Last edited by FLguy on Thu Jan 29, 2004 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FLguy
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and right now however it looks to be mainly a rain event for DCA, BWI and PHL. NYC and BOX are more of a toss up per the GFS 18z run. although i would say rain is more the prefered mode in NYC.
inland areas, BFD, UNV, SEG, MDT, ABE, MPO, AVP, BGM, MSV, PSF, POU, ALB could see significant snow, with some ice thrown in as well. mainly to the SE.
inland areas, BFD, UNV, SEG, MDT, ABE, MPO, AVP, BGM, MSV, PSF, POU, ALB could see significant snow, with some ice thrown in as well. mainly to the SE.
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Anonymous
Fortunately for N VA this system will be out of our neck of the woods by the time all that heavy wind-whipped rain develops, so only minimal rain damage to our snow will be realized.
This folks is one of those times when I am heartily glad that most of these systems this winter have been getting their act together only when they lift out of N VA, and for that, I can breathe a HUGE sigh of relief. I would rather be screwed out of all precip, than be like Philly with a ton of torrential rain on tap and face floods. Philly has been in the path of many storms this winter; N VA has not. This is one of those times that I am glad to be here in N VA where most of the storms get their act together NORTHEAST of here, as most of them have been doing all winter
Man I don't know what I'd do if I had to put up with an inch and a half of rain
Believe me folks, you do not want this storm if its gonna flood you with rain!!! Some of you will get a ton of rain. We will thankfully be a bit south of where it gets its act together. We will be spared the ignominy of a bunch of wind-driven rain washing away all our snow in a half-hour
So N MA and S SNE, enjoy the storm......
And NE, you'll get a nice new blanket of fresh powder!!
-ICE MAN JEB!!
This folks is one of those times when I am heartily glad that most of these systems this winter have been getting their act together only when they lift out of N VA, and for that, I can breathe a HUGE sigh of relief. I would rather be screwed out of all precip, than be like Philly with a ton of torrential rain on tap and face floods. Philly has been in the path of many storms this winter; N VA has not. This is one of those times that I am glad to be here in N VA where most of the storms get their act together NORTHEAST of here, as most of them have been doing all winter
Man I don't know what I'd do if I had to put up with an inch and a half of rain
Believe me folks, you do not want this storm if its gonna flood you with rain!!! Some of you will get a ton of rain. We will thankfully be a bit south of where it gets its act together. We will be spared the ignominy of a bunch of wind-driven rain washing away all our snow in a half-hour
So N MA and S SNE, enjoy the storm......
And NE, you'll get a nice new blanket of fresh powder!!
-ICE MAN JEB!!
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FLguy
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although, while PIT would see significant snow, the heaviest QPF (~1.50-1.75" of liquid) is confined to central PA, so areas just to your east (or southeast) like bedford PA, and State college (in the laurel highlands and central mountains) would see MUCH more snow.
now this of course is all assuming that the GFS 18z run is correct.
now this of course is all assuming that the GFS 18z run is correct.
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These winter storms will NOT let up, not that I have any problem with that! 
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
Dj3 wrote:I hope so Jeb. I wish you could get in on the action too, you need the snow more than I do.
That's really thoughtful of ya
But Pittsburgh is at altitude, farther north AND west, and you are smack dab in the center of the winter storm tracks this winter!!!!
You can't help but get snow, and I have a feeling, you guys are gonna be getting 'em one after another right through early April.
Hope you have one heck of a good tuned-up Snow Blower!!!
You're gonna need it. There is no doubt. I bet you get 18 inches from this.
-ICE MAN JEB!!!
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Anonymous
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