What do we need to happen....(Deep South)

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
357 AM CST

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ARCTIC/POLAR AIR MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH
TEMPS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME VERY COLD
TEMPS (NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COLD
AIR IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW AS NOTED BY THE PROFILER DATA AND THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO STATIONS IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS.

THE FIRST ORDER OF CONCERN IS WHEN WILL THIS AIR REACH
NORTH TEXAS AND HOW MODIFIED WILL IT BE. ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN...HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...00Z
ANALYSIS DOES REVEAL A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME
DOWN SLOPE WINDS AND MIXING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VERY SHALLOW
COLD AIR (THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING ALL MORNING IN EASTERN COLORADO).
OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MIXING TODAY WILL ERODE AND MODIFY
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS. THEREFORE...WE WILL DELAY
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL STILL GO WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE DUE TO A MUCH FASTER FROPA TIME.

LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCEMENT OF MUCH DEEPER COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (NOTED ON 00Z 850
ANALYSIS) MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND EXITING SHORT WAVE. WILL
KEEP TEMPS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. TEMPS SHOULD
BEGIN TO REBOUND SATURDAY...AS A STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND COOL
TEMPS INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
EXTREME SOUTH PRIOR TO FROPA.

DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND THURSDAY AND KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH DAY 7 AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. ONLY
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL LEAVE 0

[Johnny]

After reading the last discussion for the Dallas/Forth Worth area, it won't be as cold as previously thought. As far as us down here in the Deep South...time will tell.

[PTrackerLA]

We're forecasted to be in the mid 60's here this weekend so I assume this front will not be making it down to the gulf coast. Hopefully we can get the arctic air down here early next week.

[Johnny]

The arctic air is just sitting off to our North. So close but so far. lol

[Portastorm]

Yes, fellow southern snow geese, I'm about ready to throw in the towel for the winter. I go back to my Charlie Brown-kicking-the-football analogy from a few weeks back ... we get our hopes up and then nothing happens.

Hard to believe all of that arctic air will never seep south into Texas and the Deep South ... but that appears to be the reality.

This is just depressing!

[CaptinCrunch]

Updated forecast as of 9:45am this morning


This Afternoon: Partly cloudy, with a high around 55. South wind between 13 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. South wind between 8 and 14 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. South wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northeast.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 23. Northeast wind between 14 and 17 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 44. North northeast wind 8 to 17 mph becoming southeast.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54. Southwest wind 15 to 17 mph becoming northwest.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 51. North northeast wind 13 to 15 mph becoming southeast.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 31.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 51.

[PTrackerLA]

Whoops there goes your teens. I thought Dallas was being extremely bullish with their forecast yesterday.

[Anonymous]

What do we need to happen for us here in the Deep South to get a taste of Arctic Air? Something is keeping us from getting in the mix so what is it? Thanks.

move to the deep north

Ding Ding Ding.. lol

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...1140 AM DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CST WED JAN 28 2004

.UPDATE...
WE ARE VERY BUSY DOING ANALYSES THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXAMINE FOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES DURING THE NEXT HOUR.
REGARDING ARCTIC FRONT. CALCULATIONS SHOW IT TO BE MOVING S AT 15
TO 20 KT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN OK. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
RUC (THE FIRST MODEL TO SHOW THE FASTER/STRONGER PUSH) HAS IT FROM
OKC TO CDS BY ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT. WE STILL FEEL THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT THE
TIMING AND WILL BRING CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS NEEDED.
/ROBBINS

[CaptinCrunch]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 PM CST WED JAN 28 2004


SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...SHOULD BEGIN SEEPING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING...THEN FALLING DRAMATICALLY BY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON MOVEMENT OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT...WE ASK THAT YOU STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE
PROGRESS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.

[Johnny]

Here is a special weather statement from the NWS........it's getting closer and closer but will it ever make it down here?


Arctic air likely to create big weather changes through early next week...

One of the coldest arctic air masses to move into the United States in years will maintain a tight grip on the northern and Central Plains for the next several days. The effects of this air on Oklahoma and North Texas will be to bring temperatures down to well below normal at times through early next week... as pieces of the bitter cold air mass break off and move south. The battle between mild and unseasonably cold air will likely result in sharp temperature changes across the area.

Temperatures across the northern plains at mid afternoon ranged from zero to 25 below... with wind chills from 25 to 55 below zero. Even as far south as central Kansas... temperatures this afternoon were in the single digits and wind chills ranged from zero to 10 below. The leading edge of the arctic air stalled across far northwest Oklahoma during the day... holding temperatures in the 30s along the Kansas border while most of the rest of the area warmed into the 50s.

There continues to be much uncertainty concerning the future southward progress of the arctic air. Computer forecast models typically have difficulty forecasting these shallow cold air masses... and most often underestimate the strength and southwward movement of the cold air. Current computer forecasts move the cold air only very slowly south tonight... spreading it across northern and west central Oklahoma by Thursday morning and slowly into central and southwest Oklahoma by Thursday evening. But forecasters here expect the cold air to advance more rapidly... spreading over all but south central and southeast Oklahoma by early Thursday... and taking hold of the entire area by late Thursday. The colder air will likely continue to dominate the weather pattern into Friday... especially over north central and central parts of Oklahoma. As the colder air moves in to replace relatively mild air now over much of the area... there will likely be sudden temperature falls and strong temperature contrasts across short distances on Thursday. In general... expect low temperatures in the single digits and teens tonight and Thursday night across northern Oklahoma. Wind chills easily could drop to between zero and 10 below in these areas. Highs will likely reach only in the upper 20s and 30s areawide Thursday and Friday.

A warming trend is expected into Saturday... before another round of arctic air spills into the region by Sunday. This airmass could be substantially colder. At the same time... an upper level storm system approaching the area from the west could produce light wintry precipitation late Saturday into early Monday.

Due to the uncertainties involved with the timing and strength of the upcoming winter weather episodes... persons in Oklahoma and western North Texas should keep informed with the latest weather forecasts and statements.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CST WED JAN 28 2004


VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. YESTERDAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
HEADING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROMPTED SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT HAS MADE
IT TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS SLOW DOWN IS
TEMPORARY AND WILL NOT LAST. THIS AFTERNOON...ANALYSES HAVE SHOWN A
SIGNIFICANT ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT DEVELOPING DUE TO RAPID SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER W TX. AT 21Z... PRESSURE FALLS OF NEARLY 5 MB
IN 3 HOURS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF LUBBOCK. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE
RISES NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED (TEMPORARILY)...THE NET
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT RESULTING FROM PRESSURE FALLS TO IT'S SOUTH ARE
CAUSING THE FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THIS
AS SOME OF THE REPORTING STATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE
INDICATING THAT WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASED TO 20KT JUST SINCE 20Z. THUS... WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO
ACCELERATE THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE SLOWED FROPA ABOUT 6 HOURS FROM WHAT WE HAD IN YESTERDAY'S
AFTERNOON PACKAGE... IT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND STRONGER
THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED. THE 18Z RUC IS NOW THE FIRST MODEL TO
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
STILL A BIT SLOW IN OUR OPINION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS RED RIVER
AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE...AND THEN TO CENTRAL ZONES BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES OVER NW ZONES SHOULD PEAK DURING THE
MORNING THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. SE ZONES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 50S BEFORE FROPA LATE IN THE DAY.

CURRENTLY... ISENTROPIC LIFT IS INCREASING TO THE SOUTH AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS IS SURGING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE ESTIMATE MOVEMENT AT ABOUT 20 KT TO THE NORTH.
AT THIS RATE...CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...AND SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA BY 0500Z. WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT...AND WAA OVER THE AREA... TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING ALL ZONES. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT MARK THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THANKS TO
THE LATER-THAN-EXPECTED FROPA. FURTHERMORE...WE HAVE PLACED LOW POPS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL END LATE
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES. THIS WILL HELP TO
CLEAR SKIES AND END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY
EVENING.

Updated Forecast for D/FW area

Tonight: A slight chance for drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low near 40. South wind between 8 and 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 44 by 8am, then falling to around 33 during the remainder of the day. South wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northeast.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northeast wind between 14 and 17 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 36. North northeast wind 9 to 17 mph becoming southeast.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. South southwest wind between 16 and 20 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54. South southwest wind 15 to 17 mph becoming northwest.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 35. North northwest wind between 14 and 16 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 53. North northeast wind 13 to 16 mph becoming southeast.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South southeast wind 13 to 16 mph becoming north northeast.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 38.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 45.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 32.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

[CaptinCrunch]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
.PREV DISCUSSION...
355 AM CST

ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND IS
CURRENTLY NEAR AN OKC TO AMA LINE. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS FOR THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...WHICH HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS
PUNCH...AS SEEN BY THE PRESSURE FALLS IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.
EXPECT A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...AS MIXING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE CONTINUES. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTH
TEXAS TODAY WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES...SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BY TONIGHT...SOME OF THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...THE FULL BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS.
HOWEVER...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIP. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY...AND BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN.

[PTrackerLA]

This is just frustrating now, we think we might see an arctic outbreak and then it changes the next day and this has been going on all winter. Bring on spring and afternoon thunderstorms please.

[Portastorm]

(Antijinx on)

Yup. No winter weather for the deep Southern Plains this year.

Forgeddaboudit.

Time to bring on the spring severe season. At least that will give us something to watch.

[Lindaloo]

Bring on the cane season!!

[Below N.O.]

This is just frustrating now, we think we might see an arctic outbreak and then it changes the next day and this has been going on all winter. Bring on spring and afternoon thunderstorms please.

Don't throw in the towel just yet. Next Friday into the weekend we will have that Arctic Outbreak although, not as extreme as what it could have been if it had come down this weekend.

Below N.O.

[timNms]

Below N.O., not trying to be a smarty here, but isn't that what we've been hearing for the last 2 or 3 weeks???? always next Friday, only to have it warm up and rain.
I say bring on spring. I'm tired of the up and down temps too. Give me 70's and I'll be happy.

[FLguy]

What do we need to happen for us here in the Deep South to get a taste of Arctic Air? Something is keeping us from getting in the mix so what is it? Thanks.

I think the answer to your question is OHD, the Snow Nazi!

yea, where is OHD, its been awhile since ive picked on him.

[southerngale]

The big Arctic outbreak is always coming next week........every week.

I naively get my hopes up every time only to have them trampled on. Unless someone sees something really about to change (lol, here I go again), then I say BRING ON THE CANES!