Quick Update: Doesn't exactly look good for the 1st system

[Stormsfury]

YET ...

Still a lot of uncertainties that need to be resolved with the Sun/Mon storm ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

<My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion>

SF

[JCT777]

Nice analysis, SF.

[weatherfan]

Its the next system imo that we really need to keep are eyes one.As some are referring as the Big Dog febuarey 7-10.Diffentey an interisting week.

[hurricanedude]

I DONT WANT ANY MORE SNOW...JEB CAN HAVE MINE...IM SICK OF IT...DUDE SAYS BRING ON SPRING

[Anonymous]

I DONT WANT ANY MORE SNOW...JEB CAN HAVE MINE...IM SICK OF IT...DUDE SAYS BRING ON SPRING

Okay hurricanedude I have all your snow. Now let the 50/50 Low set up, we get the Big Dog, and Woodbridge gets 36 inches of snow.
I get to Dig Snow for weeks and enjoy days and days of jebwalks!!



-ICE MAN JEB!!

[FLguy]

YET ...

Still a lot of uncertainties that need to be resolved with the Sun/Mon storm ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com

<My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion>

SF

yeah, very good discussion as always, the SOI values over the past 30 days may not have been favorable for blocking, but the atlantic SSTA signal is the driving force behind the favored phase of the NAO. as long as we have warm water up in the far north atlantic cooling in the middle and warm tropics, (atlantic tripole) we nomally see a strongly -NAO in winter.

[FLguy]

and for the reason why the NAO has been tanked recently, here is the latest SSTA analysis off the navy site valid 12z this afternoon.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

notice the wedge of cold water sitting off the east coast of north america. this encourages storms to deepen further south and then cut east across the atlantic as compared to bombing out toward greenland and enhancing he icelandic low (+NAO).

as the systems cut east they pump the ridge to the northeast of them which encourages blocking. and with the 50/50 low in place wavelengths sharpen and the strength of the blocking intensifies significantly.

the Atlantic SSTA signal is stronger than the SOI signal when it comes to north atlantic blocking. the only overriding factor is solar activity, (most specifically geomagnetic activity) which can enhance the icelandic low, resulting in a +NAO (ala 2001-02)

we also notice that a pretty defined split is developing in the SSTA across the equatorial pacific. this could be very important later on down the road regarding the possible development of a weak El Nino which the NCEP/EMC model has been indicating for many months now.

monthly:



3 month avg:



getting back to the NAO ---- in late OCT and early NOV when we say very high geomagnetic activiy, we noticed the return of the SE ridge, and a mostly +NAO. now that solar actiivty continues to decrease, we have lost the input from that feature when then allows the SSTA set-up here in the atlantic to be the driving force behind the NAO favored phase on a seasonal scale.

solar data from the CDC:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/correlation/solar.data

here are the 2003 values:

2003 1440 1245 1322 1263 1162 1293 1277 1221 1122 1513 1408 1150

notice the SHARP rise and peak in NOV at 1513 after being at 1122 just one month previous in OCT 03.