Hey FLguy or any other expert, I have some questions.....

[Anonymous]

Thanks in advance.

I realize that I am, without a doubt, quite desperate. I am certainly desperate for a flurry of snow when I have some admittedly lame questions such as these.

All the time I spend obsessively watching radars just for a brief glimpse of a single fleeting snow flurry. It's almost laughable.


I have noticed the national radar and the Washington DC regional radar.

We are currently 31 degrees with a 20 degree dewpoint. Our relative humidity is 61%.

That is not exactly what I would call dry air. We have 31-degree air at 61% humidity.

Now, looking at those radars, I would say that Woodbridge VA has a 50 to 60% chance of a few snow flurries tonight into tomorrow.

What I want is YOUR analysis. Will that precip reach us? It's moving east. The air here is NOT dry. The relative humidity is 61%. I don't expect much; I know where I live, and it is certainly NOT Buffalo, New York lol. But I just think that we might have a chance at a few precious snow flurries tonight, maybe into tomorrow, before the rain smacks down mercilessly onto all our snow.


Please FLguy and/or any other weather expert on this board, please evaluate my (admittedly slim) chances of actually getting to see a few snow flurries tonight and/or tomorrow. Please.

Thanks.


-ICE MAN JEB!!!!!

[FLguy]

last time i checked it was snowing at dulles.

[Anonymous]

last time i checked it was snowing at dulles.

Thanks. I can only hope that maybe one or two of those flurries make it to Woodbridge, Va tonight and/or tomorrow!!




-ICE MAN JEB!!!!

[Anonymous]

last time i checked it was snowing at dulles.

Thanks. I can only hope that maybe one or two of those flurries make it to Woodbridge, Va tonight and/or tomorrow!!

Uh.. it's not snowing at Dulles, sorry .

[FLguy]

last time i checked it was snowing at dulles.

Thanks. I can only hope that maybe one or two of those flurries make it to Woodbridge, Va tonight and/or tomorrow!!

Uh.. it's not snowing at Dulles, sorry .

hummm, i didnt get the info from an observation, it was a person in the area that sent me an e-mail. now that i check the actual obs and and nexrad pics out of the area it clearly cant be snowing at dulles or for that matter anywhere else in VA or MD. my apologies for the confusion. i should have double checked before.

but even with that said, hey jeb, notice whats back to the west of you.

[Lowpressure]

Jeb- It looks like we may see a little snow, but I would say looking at radar it would be closer to early a.m. 5-7 area. Weather channel here says up to 1 inch possible for us. I don't think that is reasonable, but light snow looks a pretty good bet.

[Anonymous]

last time i checked it was snowing at dulles.

Thanks. I can only hope that maybe one or two of those flurries make it to Woodbridge, Va tonight and/or tomorrow!!

Uh.. it's not snowing at Dulles, sorry .

hummm, i didnt get the info from an observation, it was a person in the area that sent me an e-mail. now that i check the actual obs and and nexrad pics out of the area it clearly cant be snowing at dulles or for that matter anywhere else in VA or MD. my apologies for the confusion. i should have double checked before.

but even with that said, hey jeb, notice whats back to the west of you.

It's cool FLguy

Yep, I see what is to our west.

It would be cool to wake up tomorrow morning to some SNOW!!!!!

All I can say is,

BRING IT! BRING IT! BRING IT!

You know me! I always want snow!!


-ICE MAN JEB!

[Anonymous]

Jeb- It looks like we may see a little snow, but I would say looking at radar it would be closer to early a.m. 5-7 area. Weather channel here says up to 1 inch possible for us. I don't think that is reasonable, but light snow looks a pretty good bet.

Light snow would be very cool, Lowpressure!!!

Who knows? Maybe somehow this storm on Monday can work out so the folks who are already supposed to get 2 feet of snow, get 2 feet, and I can get a mix of sleet and freezing rain and maybe a flake or two of snow, instead of that yucky rain lol



-ICE MAN JEB!!!! Bring It!

[FLguy]

the only problem is, that while the airmass east of the mountains will saturate, the RUC doesnt have any good UVM east of the blue ridge.



however even with said, given the cold airmass in place, with 1000-500 thicknesses of between 522 and 528 i would suspect some good ratios. probably about 20:1

[Anonymous]

Thanks again, FLguy!

-ICE MAN JEB!!

[FLguy]

we will however see what happens once a jet max develops later on the evening over NC and VA which could allow for additional lift and some enhancement of the precip shield, but im not sure how much makes it across the mountains jeb.

[breeze]

LOL, Jeb, I had to think of you, the
other day, when snow was falling, here...

BRING IT! BRING IT! BRING IT!

[Anonymous]

Well LWX decided a few minutes ago to go with 1/2" metro areas and 1" mountains based on the 00z IAD sounding showing saturation between 800mb and 600mb. We'll see how that pans out... unfortunately I get the feeling it will work out about as well as their previous clipper forecast did (recall the 1-3" WWA they held onto even w/ the evening update when they mentioned the possibility of seeing absolutely nothing).

[FLguy]

Well LWX decided a few minutes ago to go with 1/2" metro areas and 1" mountains based on the 00z IAD sounding showing saturation between 800mb and 600mb. We'll see how that pans out... unfortunately I get the feeling it will work out about as well as their previous clipper forecast did (recall the 1-3" WWA they held onto even w/ the evening update when they mentioned the possibility of seeing absolutely nothing).

as i said with the jet streak developing later this evening, it could provide extra lift east of the mountains, that could be part of the reasoning as well for them to go with those totals.

[Anonymous]

You know what would be really cool...............would be for that jet max to develop, then the arctic front set up shop across VA overnight, and the jetmax set up right along the front and the snow kept moving along the front west to east across NC and VA and we wound up with snow tomorrow and the NWS had to scramble to play catch-up with the storm and issue whatever wx statements were necessary for N VA LOL!! And we had highs tomorrow in the low/mid 20s with 98% humidity and the snow fell all day, light to moderate and it piled up some and the front did not resume moving south again til early Sunday and we wound up with snow the whole time!!!

Please mother nature, cut us Northern Virginians some winter slack. Please give us some precious snow weather here!! The N MA thru the SNE and NE will get hammered thru late April easily by snow! Give us a surprise snow!! Let the Mid Atlantic dance with joy with another nice snow!!! Please spare us all that terrible rain!! It's only once in a while that we actually have some snow cover to enjoy lower daytime highs and cold overnight lows with!!

Oh please let me wake up tomorrow to a nice snowy scene, and to an NWS forecast discussion in which they state that they had to scramble to catch up with late-breaking overnight weather developments LOL LOL! Let me wake up to a brand-new forecast indeed, in which new weather statements have been plastered all throughout the NC/VA/MD region!! Let me wake up to the excited realization, that I will have to clear more wintry precip from my walk yet AGAIN!!! Let me go outside tomorrow, shovel in hand and nearly bursting with joy over more winter weather!!!
With my CD headphones blasting out more music, as I dig some more wintry cheer off my walkways!

Just Bring It!


-ICE MAN JEB!!

[FLguy]

You know what would be really cool...............would be for that jet max to develop, then the arctic front set up shop across VA overnight, and the jetmax set up right along the front and the snow kept moving along the front west to east across NC and VA and we wound up with snow tomorrow and the NWS had to scramble to play catch-up with the storm and issue whatever wx statements were necessary for N VA LOL!! And we had highs tomorrow in the low/mid 20s with 98% humidity and the snow fell all day, light to moderate and it piled up some and the front did not resume moving south again til early Sunday and we wound up with snow the whole time!!!

Please mother nature, cut us Northern Virginians some winter slack. Please give us some precious snow weather here!! The N MA thru the SNE and NE will get hammered thru late April easily by snow! Give us a surprise snow!! Let the Mid Atlantic dance with joy with another nice snow!!! Please spare us all that terrible rain!! It's only once in a while that we actually have some snow cover to enjoy lower daytime highs and cold overnight lows with!!

Oh please let me wake up tomorrow to a nice snowy scene, and to an NWS forecast discussion in which they state that they had to scramble to catch up with late-breaking overnight weather developments LOL LOL! Let me wake up to a brand-new forecast indeed, in which new weather statements have been plastered all throughout the NC/VA/MD region!! Let me wake up to the excited realization, that I will have to clear more wintry precip from my walk yet AGAIN!!! Let me go outside tomorrow, shovel in hand and nearly bursting with joy over more winter weather!!!
With my CD headphones blasting out more music, as I dig some more wintry cheer off my walkways!

Just Bring It!


-ICE MAN JEB!!

jeb --- i would NOT hold out hope on that one.

[Anonymous]

I know--------Just dreaming again........lol




-ICE MAN JEB!!

[FLguy]

dont worry jeb -- your storm may only be a few weeks away.

notice the MJO related enhanced convection is getitng back toward 120E



both events in DEC coincided with the MJO wet phase.

[smiley]

Jeb what kind of music do you listen to? I'm scared to ask.

[FLguy]

if im not mistaken, you listen to christian music, am i right Jeb