Winter Weather Event Monday and Tuesday for Mid-Atlantic

[ezweather]

Good morning everyone. Well, after looking at some of the model guidance, looks like early next week could be very interesting. Last nights European model run favored an inland track and in fact raises the heights over the East. While the 00z GFS has a totally different track, along the East Coast. There was a great discussion out of the DC NWS office about the upcoming event. They talk about the possibility of a coastal development versus inland.

Here's a their discussion -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
325 AM EST MON JAN 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SW. WI HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20-40 POPS. BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL MOVE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY 12Z SAT. ND

&&

.LONG TERM...SAT AND BEYOND...
A QUIET BEGINNING AND END TO THE MED RANGE...BUT THE MIDDLE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SHAPING UP THAT WAY. IN THE EARLY PDS...LG SFC RIDGE BUILDS EWD THROUGH ON...TAKING UP POSN OVR ERN NEW ENG. THIS WL HELP TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SUPPLY OF LLVL ARCTIC AIR FOR THE MID ATL. ANOTHER DAMMING SITU SETTING UP IN ADV OF THE NEXT SYS TO AFFECT THE AREA
MON NIGHT/TUE.

THERE IS DIVERGENCE IN THE MDL GUIDANCE AS TO HOW TO HANDLE THIS NEXT SYS MOVING NE FM THE PLAINS. SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO THE LAST SYS THAT PROVIDED THE BIG SNOW HERE THE OTHER DAY. THE UPR LOW THIS TIME IS MUCH STRONGER...AND THE LLVL COLD AIR IS NOT QUITE AS COLD. WL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SFC PATN. MOST OF THE MDL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE SC COAST MON EVE AS UPR TROF BECMS NEG TILTED AND STG UPR DIVGC DEVELOPS IN PHASED JET CONFIGURATION. THE QUESTION THEN BECMS WHERE DOES THE SFC LOW MOVE NEXT. THE GFS STRENGTHENS THE
LOW OVR ERN NC AND MOVES IT STRAIGHT N UP THE CHES BAY B4 MOVING THE SYS TO THE NE. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE SECONDARY LOW A BIT LTR...WEAKER AND FURTHER E. THE MREF MEMBERS SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLNS TO PICK FROM. LOOKING AT THE GEM ENSEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FURTHER E OF THE GFS TRACK AND ALL OF THE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL JUST E OF THE DELMARVA. THE MDLS FREQUENTLY UNDERESTIMATE THE COLD AIR AND WL OCCASIONALLY DRIVE A SFC LOW RIGHT INTO IT. THE COLD AIR SEEMINGLY ALWAYS HOLDS ON LONGER THAN FCST.
GIVEN THE INCRSG NUMBER OF MDL SOLNS MOVING AWAY FROM THE 'INLAND ROUTE'. ATTM WOULD LEAN TOWARD THE EASTERN SOLNS OVR THE WRN ONES. HV TRENDED THE FCST COLDER FOR THIS NEXT SYS...AND SIMPLIFIED PTYPES
TO RAIN OR SNOW. THE SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY OF A PATN SUCH AS THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE PRONOUNCED COASTAL LOW. IF ALL THE PIECES COME TOGETHER...ANOTHER SIG WINTER WX EVENT COULD BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE MID ATL. WL ISSUE WINTER WX OUTLOOK THIS MORN.

BEHIND THIS SYS...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SE FM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES COOLING THING OFF YET AGAIN. MED RNG GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO CLOSE TO CLIMO...AND GIVEN SNOWPACK AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY BLO NORMAL WX CONTG...HV DROPPED TEMPS SVRL DEG
THRUT THE XTND.

MANNING


You really can't ignore whats currently going on. This morning here in South Jersey as I made my down to Altantic City for work, it was overcast, very cold and to throw in a few flurries. So the pattern, if anything has been a true winter time pattern, but yes its going to change, but before it does, winter weather is still likely. So right now, I'm leaning to more of a wintry system next week. Just will have to look at current and future trends. Let's see if the European starts changing its look as we go on in time. Looks like the GFS has a better idea on next week's system rather than the European. For Philly, if you took face value of the 00z run, Philly would have the usual sleet, rain, and some snow. Can't believe I'm discounting the 12z Thursday Eurpoean model run, but thats what I'm thinking early this morning. I definitely like to hear your thoughts. I'll try to post more later today, now that I have access to this site. Should be a lot of fun. Man, has January been really cold.

[thstorm87]

as much as I Would like that, im giving up, we are done with snow for a while. Both storms next week will be mainly rain, except for mountains.

[JCT777]

The only forecaster I know of who is completely buying the 12z Euro is Joe Bastardi. All other forecasters seem to be leaning more towards a coastal low (secondary development) for the early week storm and then a big snow/ice event for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast for late next week.

[yoda]

JCT777 would that include N. VA and D.C. for the second storm? COULD it be a big one? PLease say YES!!! LOL, well I am just hoping for a big one.. I want a snow storm of 12"+ here... what do you think about late next week? and also I am thinking heer in D.C. we COULD see a MAJOR ICE STORM on Mon-Tues... your thoughts if any are greatly apreciated!

Clouded the weather future is.. yes yes.. clouded it is.

[JCT777]

Yoda - the early week storm will likely provide some wintry weather even in the DC area, although I think there will be more ice/rain than snow. The late week event looks like more of a snow event for you (although there could be some ice mixed in), and it could be a MAJOR event.

Of course, I am no expert. This is just speculation based on what I have been hearing from my local forecasts, the NWS, and the good forecasters here and at other weather boards.

[yoda]

Yes I agree.... I am thinking of a good ice event... till I saw HPC's prelim discussion... now thinking more along the line of snow for our region mon-tues and for you as well JCT777... AND JEB!!!

but we will see...