PRELIM DISCUSSION FROM HPC...JEB LOOKIE HERE!!!

Winter Weather Discussion

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yoda
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PRELIM DISCUSSION FROM HPC...JEB LOOKIE HERE!!!

#1 Postby yoda » Fri Jan 30, 2004 9:14 am

Here JEB!! CPC says cold air stays!! Coastal possible for mon-tues...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
856 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2004

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 03 2004 - 12Z FRI FEB 06 2004

PRELIM MODEL DISCUSSION...

OVERALL...WENT FOR A BLEND OF THE 0Z GFS AND THE GLOB ENS
MEAN THIS PD. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE SYS IN
THE EAST ON DAYS 3/MON AND 4/TUES...THE FASTEST SOLN WITH
THE UPR TROF PULLING INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 5/WED...AND
ONE OF THE MORE VIGOROUS SOLNS WITH THE SHRTWV SYS PASSING
THRU THE GULF OF AK ON DAY 6/THU - DAY 7/FRI. IN ORDER TO
BRING IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BLENDED IT WITH THE GLOB ENS MEAN SOLN. THE
BIGGEST EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE WEST ON DAYS 3/MON - 6/THU
WHERE THE GLOB ENS MEAN IS LIKELY TOO WEAK WITH THE UPR TROF
AND NOT AS VIGOROUS AS THE BULK OF THE MODELS WITH THE
SHRTWV SYS DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF BY DAY
5/WED.


REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

...EASTERN CONUS...

ON DAYS 3/MON - 4/TUES...THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THE
AVAIL SOLNS. THE 6Z GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE COASTAL
LOW. PREFER A WEAKER SOLN THAN THE 0Z GFS. THIS SHUD KEEP
COLDER AIR OVER THE MID ATL THAN THE 6Z RUN...WHICH THE CAN
GLOB...THE MODEL WITH THE MOST SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL SYS...REASONABLY AGREES WITH. BLENDED THE 0Z GFS
WITH THE GLOB ENS MEAN TO CREATE THE PREFERRED WEAKER SOLN.
DID GO COLDER THAN MOS OVER THE MID ATL ON DAYS 3/MON AND
4/TUES. THINK IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE MODELS ARE
LETTING ON TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT OF THE REGION.

What to you think guys???!?!?!?
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Fri Jan 30, 2004 9:18 am

As Vanilla Ice once said - "Ice, ice baby". :wink: I think you will see a mixture of all types of precip (snow, sleet, rain).
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#3 Postby yoda » Fri Jan 30, 2004 9:19 am

True that JCT!! But now I am thinking that would that mean more chances of snow over ice or rain.... what do you think? Thanks for responding to all of my questions!!!
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#4 Postby JCT777 » Fri Jan 30, 2004 9:21 am

You could be right about more snow. Let's see how the models trend during the next few days. As of now, it is looking pretty good for wintry precip.
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:45 pm

I really enjoy that Ice, Ice Baby rap on some of my better jebwalks.....it has one heck of a backbeat !!

Hey, I will gladly take a boatload of freezing rain and sleet over plain rain anytime!! :)

I'll take an inch of solid ice!!! I LOVE Glaciers!! :) So the power goes off.....I have 25 thick blankets......I'm ready.......bring it, just leave the plain rain out of it!!! :)

Yeah, I LOVE that cold air!!!

Now it's time to blast Allentown by ole Billy Joel again over the possibility of a major ice storm!!! :)


-ICE MAN JEB!! :)
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#6 Postby yoda » Fri Jan 30, 2004 1:49 pm

LOL Jeb!!! I am hoping for the two significant winter threats on Mon-Tues and possibly next weekend.... what does the GREAT JEB think?
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Fri Jan 30, 2004 3:08 pm

yoda wrote:LOL Jeb!!! I am hoping for the two significant winter threats on Mon-Tues and possibly next weekend.... what does the GREAT JEB think?




Well for one I think if I ever became "great", I have about 30 years of maturing to do before I could ever be addressed as that, but thanks......

No, Make that 40 years........ :)

With that said.....
I hope we get the bigger storm late next week as all snow and I hope it tracks just right for heavy snow and there is enough cold air in place over all of Virginia for an all-snow event and I would like very much for us to get 24 to possibly 36 inches in that storm........but I can always dream lol...... :)

If we have to get rain with one of them, I would want the rain with the first one......because the second event is going to be LOADED with Gulf moisture and may well evolve into a Classic Miller A storm, out of the Gulf and right up the coast, hopefully dumping very heavy snows from Georgia clear to N Maine, and moving nice and slow, maybe even coming close to a stall at a location along its track which could give VA a couple FEET of precious snow, then moving on to give everyone else on up to Maine their 2 to 4 feet of snow.

It would be real cool to get snow with both systems, that would be very sweet, but if I had to pick one, I'd definately pick the Feb 5-7 storm because that dog may be a BIG Dog indeed. Turn that Dawg LOOSE!!

***Jeb's neighborhood begins to rock with "Who Let Tha Dogs Out?" turned up extremely loud, with a TON of Bass, over the possibility of a massive, Big Dawg East Coast Blizzard!!!!!!***


-JEB!!!! Just BRING It!!!! :)
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