2003 Forecast Verification and some Questions

[MWatkins]

Great to see things are still pretty active here since the (late) close of the 2003 season...I hope everyone is well.

Firsto of all...I have a couple of questions:

1. Does anyone have good links to large scale water-vapor imagery for periods when hurricanes have been strong? Specifically for Keith, Isabel, Georges, Floyd and any others you can think of?

2. I've brought this up before and so far nothing...but I am very interested in creating an ensemble forecast to update in quasi real-time from those sites that forecast track and intensity...I think it would be interesting to see if our individual forecast abilities and biases etc would even out and create a skillful forecast. I'm working on the technology to do this from a web-form or upload, but it could be as easy as an email. Please let me know.

I hope to contribute more here in the coming months...and should put out far more than 23 forecasts this season as long as the season is reasonably active.

I have finally completed verification for the 2003 season, although the overall number of forecasts was way down this year (due to several factors)...I'm happy to see the overall improvement in performance against climatology...especially in the 12-36 hour forecast period. But...there is still a lot of work to do at 72 hours plus.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003%20Fo ... cation.htm

MW

[Derek Ortt]

I do have SSMI microwave vapor data of mitch, floyd and isabel, though only during their major hurricane periods. I may have the entire life of Georges, though I may have deleted it.