Tropical Update: 1 Feb

[senorpepr]

1) TC Elita (09S). Currently at 20.6S 44.4E (170nm WSW of Antananarivo, Madagascar) and moving WNW at 14mph. Winds are 40mph. Elita is just inland, but is forecast to drift over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel. Once this occur, intensification should resume at normal or above normal rates under good outflow. In 48hrs, Elita is forecast to be a 100mph cyclone.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904web.txt

2) TC Frank (10S). Currently at 15.7S 62.1E and moving SE at 5mph. Winds are 130mph. Frank is expected intensify slowly under favorable outflow with wind speeds of 145mph by 24hrs. Afterwards, Frank is expected to begin a weakening trend.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt

3) TC Linda (11S). Currently at 17.7S 95.7E (330nm SSW of Cocos Islands) and moving SSW at 7mph. Winds are 50mph. Linda is expect to weaken slowly as the low level cirulation is somewhat exposed with deep convection southward. Furthermore, Linda is moving along the western side of a ridge axis. This ridge is expected to build westward which will steer Linda into a pocket of confluent shear. By the 48hr expect Linda to be dissipating.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1104web.txt

Click the about clicks for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[Hurricanehink]

Ugh, things changed again. Now, Elita isn't going to get much stronger, and based on satellite imagery, Linda is going to dissipate really soon.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

1) TC Elita (09S). Currently at 19.2S 43.2E (215nm W of Antananarivo, Madagascar) and moving NW at 9mph. Winds are 50mph. Elita is expect to meander throughout the Mozambique Channel. The warm sea temps and good outflow will help Elita into an intensification phase. At the 48hr point in the forecast, Elita will become a 70mph cyclone as it begins to dissipate as a cyclone.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904web.txt

2) TC Frank (10S). Currently at 16.0S 92.9E (760nm SW of Diego Garcia) and moving E at 6mph. Winds are 130mph. Frank is expected intensify slightly under favorable outflow with wind speeds of 140mph by 12-24hrs. Afterwards, Frank is expected to begin a weakening trend as the outflow around him weakens.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1004web.txt

3) TC Linda (11S). Currently at 18.8S 95.2E (400nm SSW of Cocos Islands) and moving SSW at 6mph. Winds are 40mph and is currently dissipating. Linda's low level circulation is exposed with no significant convection. An unfavorable upper level environment will further it's weakening trend by 24-36hrs.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1104web.txt

Click the about clicks for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[senorpepr]

UPDATE!

TC Linda (11S). Currently at 19.3S 94.9E (430nm SSW of Cocos Islands) and moving SSW at 6mph. Winds are 35mph and is currently dissipating. Linda has now tracked into an area of upper level confluence and moderate vertical shear. Furthermore, JTWC has issued it's final advisory on Linda and expects her not to regenerate.

https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh1104web.txt

Click the about links for the latest advisory or go to the JTWC's website: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html for latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery.

[Hurricanehink]

Another update, Elita is now forecasted to get to cyclone strength, and its forecasted to landfall very near to where it exited Madagascar. Elita's track is crazy.