Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2058 UNK BROOKSVILLE HERNANDO FL 2854 8238 TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED AT THE INTERSECTION OF CROOM AND MCINTYRE ROADS. REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. (TBW)
***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
Tornado Reports
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2103 UNK NOBLETON HERNANDO FL 2865 8226 *** 0 DEAD, 0 INJ *** SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC OF A TORNADO IN THENOBLETON AREA. MANY TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED AROUND POWEL AND MAJESTIC ROADS. TECO REPO (TBW)
2115 UNK NOBLETON SUMTER FL 2865 8226 SUMTER COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT HAD REPORTS OF A TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN NEAR NOBLETON. DAMAGE REPORTS WERE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. (TBW)
Time F-Scale Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2103 UNK NOBLETON HERNANDO FL 2865 8226 *** 0 DEAD, 0 INJ *** SEVERAL REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC OF A TORNADO IN THENOBLETON AREA. MANY TREES AND POWERLINES WERE DOWNED AROUND POWEL AND MAJESTIC ROADS. TECO REPO (TBW)
2115 UNK NOBLETON SUMTER FL 2865 8226 SUMTER COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT HAD REPORTS OF A TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN NEAR NOBLETON. DAMAGE REPORTS WERE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. (TBW)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW P07
30 WNW INK 15 NE CVS 45 S LBL P28 BVO MKO MLC SPS 15 N JCT
15 SW LRD.
A GRADUAL PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MODELS SUGGEST STRONG COUPLED JET STREAKS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
LEAVING CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...THE CENTER
OF A SPRAWLING...COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
TONIGHT.
...FLORIDA...
BEFORE THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH 70F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS ADVANCED
SOUTH OF THE FORT MYERS AND VERO BEACH AREAS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY WEAK...THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZES.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CAP IS APPARENT IN LATEST RAOBS...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY WEAK WAVE
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST VAD WIND DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LACK OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...
PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
PEAK HEATING...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF SAN
ANGELO...WHERE CAPE IS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG. CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE ENVIRONMENT. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH ONSET
OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
WHEN NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO ZONE OF WEAK 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS SUGGEST LOW/MID-
LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVOLVING ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF POLAR JET ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED...
GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 11/12Z.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW P07
30 WNW INK 15 NE CVS 45 S LBL P28 BVO MKO MLC SPS 15 N JCT
15 SW LRD.
A GRADUAL PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL BRANCHES OF THE
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. MODELS SUGGEST STRONG COUPLED JET STREAKS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
LEAVING CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN STATES. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...THE CENTER
OF A SPRAWLING...COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
TONIGHT.
...FLORIDA...
BEFORE THE ONSET OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. THE
AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH 70F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS ADVANCED
SOUTH OF THE FORT MYERS AND VERO BEACH AREAS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY WEAK...THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN
BY LATE MORNING WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF SEA BREEZES.
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL CAP IS APPARENT IN LATEST RAOBS...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS. HOWEVER...FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY WEAK WAVE
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN LATEST VAD WIND DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LACK OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...
PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
PEAK HEATING...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF SAN
ANGELO...WHERE CAPE IS PROGGED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG. CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE ENVIRONMENT. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH ONSET
OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORE SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
WHEN NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING/VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO ZONE OF WEAK 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS SUGGEST LOW/MID-
LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVOLVING ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF POLAR JET ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED...
GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 11/12Z.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W TYR 25 WSW BWD
20 ENE BGS 15 ENE LBB 60 S LBL DDC 10 NNE HUT 45 NE CNU 20 SSW JEF
10 S BLV 25 E MDH 20 ESE PAH 15 NE MKL 20 SSE MEM 45 W TYR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 10 N DAB.
...SRN PLAINS...
RETURN FLOW AROUND RETREATING SERN SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD THRU SRN PLAINS AND THEN NEWD INTO LOWER MO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW FROM COAST TO COAST PREVAILS
WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NWD TO VICINITY CANADIAN BORDER. THUS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SRN U.S.
WITH STRONG HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SWRN U.S. AN
ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE WLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO MID/UPPER 50S AS FAR N AS
OK...AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY/MUCAPES TO 1000
J/KG/TO SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION. WITH LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...CAP WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON OVER ALL
BUT VICINITY W EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE HEATING WILL BE
STRONGEST NWRN TX/SWRN OK.
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS OK INTO LOWER MO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THIS
LIFT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO. PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W TYR 25 WSW BWD
20 ENE BGS 15 ENE LBB 60 S LBL DDC 10 NNE HUT 45 NE CNU 20 SSW JEF
10 S BLV 25 E MDH 20 ESE PAH 15 NE MKL 20 SSE MEM 45 W TYR.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N PIE 10 N DAB.
...SRN PLAINS...
RETURN FLOW AROUND RETREATING SERN SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NWD THRU SRN PLAINS AND THEN NEWD INTO LOWER MO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW FROM COAST TO COAST PREVAILS
WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NWD TO VICINITY CANADIAN BORDER. THUS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SRN U.S.
WITH STRONG HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SWRN U.S. AN
ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN THE WLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO MID/UPPER 50S AS FAR N AS
OK...AIRMASS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY/MUCAPES TO 1000
J/KG/TO SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION. WITH LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...CAP WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING AFTERNOON OVER ALL
BUT VICINITY W EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE HEATING WILL BE
STRONGEST NWRN TX/SWRN OK.
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS OK INTO LOWER MO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THIS
LIFT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO. PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 121200-131200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
OK...SRN MO AND NORTH AND WEST AR.
PROGRESSIVE BUILDING RIDGE INTO WRN U.S. RESULTS IN SOME INCREASE
IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLITUDE WITH TROUGH SHARPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO
NRN MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE VICINITY WRN OK WILL
MAINTAIN SLY FLOW OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU ERN OK INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP TOWARD MID MS
VALLEY WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING.
WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY CLIMBING TO NEAR/ABOVE 60F INTO ERN OK
COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT SPREADS EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN...AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PORTIONS OF ERN SRN PLAINS. MLCAPES WILL CLIMB
TO 2000 J/KG E OF SURFACE LOW INTO ERN OK AND SWRN MO. CAP WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SURFACE INITIATION MUCH OF DAY...BUT BY
LATE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO NE OF SURFACE LOW FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN AREA OF BEST LIFT VICINITY SWRN MO/KS BORDER.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...SUFFICIENT VEERING IN
WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY
VICINITY ERN OK/NWRN AR DURING EVENING POSSIBLY FORMING AN MCS IN
AREA OF BEST WARM ADVECTION SRN MO/NRN AR.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 121200-131200
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN
OK...SRN MO AND NORTH AND WEST AR.
PROGRESSIVE BUILDING RIDGE INTO WRN U.S. RESULTS IN SOME INCREASE
IN DOWNSTREAM AMPLITUDE WITH TROUGH SHARPENING UP AS IT MOVES INTO
NRN MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE VICINITY WRN OK WILL
MAINTAIN SLY FLOW OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD THRU ERN OK INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP TOWARD MID MS
VALLEY WED NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING.
WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY CLIMBING TO NEAR/ABOVE 60F INTO ERN OK
COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT SPREADS EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN...AIRMASS WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PORTIONS OF ERN SRN PLAINS. MLCAPES WILL CLIMB
TO 2000 J/KG E OF SURFACE LOW INTO ERN OK AND SWRN MO. CAP WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SURFACE INITIATION MUCH OF DAY...BUT BY
LATE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO NE OF SURFACE LOW FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN AREA OF BEST LIFT VICINITY SWRN MO/KS BORDER.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...SUFFICIENT VEERING IN
WIND PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
GIVEN THE LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY
VICINITY ERN OK/NWRN AR DURING EVENING POSSIBLY FORMING AN MCS IN
AREA OF BEST WARM ADVECTION SRN MO/NRN AR.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 30 W CHS
20 SSE FLO 10 NNW OAJ 20 NNE HSE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SRQ 20 SSW AGR
10 ESE VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PRX 20 N FTW
10 S BWD SJT 20 NE MAF 20 SSW LBB AMA 35 NW GAG 10 SE EMP
10 ENE STL 35 WSW BMG 35 N BWG 55 ENE MKL LIT 45 ENE PRX.
...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH UPPER
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.
ONGOING ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER N CENTRAL OK TO THE KS
BORDER DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 850-750 MB
LAYER ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SSWLY LLJ PER AREA VADS/PROFILERS.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LLJ WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SRN MO...
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SW...EXPECT LOW-LEVELS TO DESTABILIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS NWD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH
AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER W/NW TX
AND AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL TX. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8
C/KM PER 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER WRN TX/ ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SRN PLAINS CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG OVER W/NW TX WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL.
A SWLY 25-30 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM W/NW TX
INTO CENTRAL OK...SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR HAIL FROM W/NW TX INTO OK FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WV SWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
PER WV IMAGERY...WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE WAVE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH FROM THE SC COAST THIS
MORNING TO THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z ETA CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY...WITH THE 09Z RUC MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH
EARLY MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT WEAK
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES OVER THIS REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE COASTAL TROUGH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 30 W CHS
20 SSE FLO 10 NNW OAJ 20 NNE HSE.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SRQ 20 SSW AGR
10 ESE VRB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PRX 20 N FTW
10 S BWD SJT 20 NE MAF 20 SSW LBB AMA 35 NW GAG 10 SE EMP
10 ENE STL 35 WSW BMG 35 N BWG 55 ENE MKL LIT 45 ENE PRX.
...SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY AS A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES BENEATH UPPER
LEVEL ZONAL FLOW.
ONGOING ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER N CENTRAL OK TO THE KS
BORDER DEVELOPED WITHIN MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE 850-750 MB
LAYER ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SSWLY LLJ PER AREA VADS/PROFILERS.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING LLJ WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SRN MO...
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SW...EXPECT LOW-LEVELS TO DESTABILIZE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS NWD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH
AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER W/NW TX
AND AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL TX. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8
C/KM PER 12Z SOUNDINGS OVER WRN TX/ ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SRN PLAINS CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SBCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG OVER W/NW TX WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL.
A SWLY 25-30 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM W/NW TX
INTO CENTRAL OK...SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR HAIL FROM W/NW TX INTO OK FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WV SWD TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
PER WV IMAGERY...WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE WAVE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH FROM THE SC COAST THIS
MORNING TO THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z ETA CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY...WITH THE 09Z RUC MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH
EARLY MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT WEAK
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/ TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. AS
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES OVER THIS REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE COASTAL TROUGH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFFSHORE. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S ADM 35 E FSI 10 SE END 40 E ICT 25 SE EMP 45 S OJC 40 SE SZL
10 ESE TBN 20 S UNO 35 NNW LIT 10 WNW HOT 25 E PRX 25 S ADM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HEZ
20 NNW LFK 45 S BWD 35 WSW ABI 20 WNW LTS 15 W P28 25 ENE SLN
20 SSE FNB 20 NW UIN 15 NW CMI 40 S MIE 20 E LUK 40 W HTS
20 SE JKL 25 SW TYS 35 WNW RMG 40 NNW HEZ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CTY 40 SSE
JAX.
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUILDING RIDGE INTO WRN U.S. RESULTS IN SOME
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WITH TROUGH SHARPENING AS IT CROSSES
UPR MS VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN OK WED AM MAINTAINING SLY
FLOW AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SERN
KS/SWRN MO. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WITH PRIMARY S/WV FURTHER N DIGGING
ESEWD FROM NRN PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY.
...ERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/NRN AND WRN AR...
COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND
DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F THRU ERN OK...AIRMASS BECOMES
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AS MAIN POLAR JET WELL TO THE N...VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES PARTICULARLY NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SURFACE INITIATION OF STORMS UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ALONG OK/KS BORDER VICINITY...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE
BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE LOW WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 8K FT...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR..LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THREAT DIMINISHING TO S OF RED RIVER WHERE CONVERGENCE WEAKER
AND CAPPING STRONGER.
CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AFTER 00Z ACROSS SRN
MO/NRN AR IN AREA OF BEST THETA E ADVECTION.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S ADM 35 E FSI 10 SE END 40 E ICT 25 SE EMP 45 S OJC 40 SE SZL
10 ESE TBN 20 S UNO 35 NNW LIT 10 WNW HOT 25 E PRX 25 S ADM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW HEZ
20 NNW LFK 45 S BWD 35 WSW ABI 20 WNW LTS 15 W P28 25 ENE SLN
20 SSE FNB 20 NW UIN 15 NW CMI 40 S MIE 20 E LUK 40 W HTS
20 SE JKL 25 SW TYS 35 WNW RMG 40 NNW HEZ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CTY 40 SSE
JAX.
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE BUILDING RIDGE INTO WRN U.S. RESULTS IN SOME
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION WITH TROUGH SHARPENING AS IT CROSSES
UPR MS VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN OK WED AM MAINTAINING SLY
FLOW AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE NWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO SERN
KS/SWRN MO. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY WITH PRIMARY S/WV FURTHER N DIGGING
ESEWD FROM NRN PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY.
...ERN OK/SERN KS/SRN MO/NRN AND WRN AR...
COUPLED WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND
DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F THRU ERN OK...AIRMASS BECOMES
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODEST FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AS MAIN POLAR JET WELL TO THE N...VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES PARTICULARLY NRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS SURFACE INITIATION OF STORMS UNTIL
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ALONG OK/KS BORDER VICINITY...BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO. THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE
BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE LOW WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 8K FT...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR..LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU CENTRAL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THREAT DIMINISHING TO S OF RED RIVER WHERE CONVERGENCE WEAKER
AND CAPPING STRONGER.
CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AFTER 00Z ACROSS SRN
MO/NRN AR IN AREA OF BEST THETA E ADVECTION.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 131200-141200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
S/WV TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z THU...TRACKS
ESEWD TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 06Z FRI ON ETA AND GFS. SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF TROUGH ON BOTH MODELS...WITH GFS POSSIBLY A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AT 12Z THU
VICINITY OH RIVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THRU SRN DELMARVA BY THE
EVENING.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN
VA WITH DRIER AIR IN DOWNSLOPING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO E OF APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD THRU
ERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BELOW THE SLIGHT THRESHOLD ATTM. HOWEVER AREA COULD
BE UPGRADED IN LATER FORECASTS IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
GREATER THAN NOW EXPECTED.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 131200-141200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
S/WV TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z THU...TRACKS
ESEWD TO OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 06Z FRI ON ETA AND GFS. SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF TROUGH ON BOTH MODELS...WITH GFS POSSIBLY A
LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AT 12Z THU
VICINITY OH RIVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS EWD ALONG STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE THRU SRN DELMARVA BY THE
EVENING.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN
VA WITH DRIER AIR IN DOWNSLOPING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO E OF APPALACHIANS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD THRU
ERN NORTH CAROLINA MOVING OFFSHORE BY EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BELOW THE SLIGHT THRESHOLD ATTM. HOWEVER AREA COULD
BE UPGRADED IN LATER FORECASTS IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
GREATER THAN NOW EXPECTED.
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
There is severe weather potential here tmrw. Spring is upon us! 
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Rob-TheStormChaser
-
wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
LOL R. 
Sure thing...I will try to keep you updated on it too. By the way, when do you start chasing storms?
Sure thing...I will try to keep you updated on it too. By the way, when do you start chasing storms?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
Rob-TheStormChaser
-
Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07
20 NNE MRF 15 WSW INK 20 W LBB 20 ESE AMA 50 SSW P28 25 ESE EMP
35 N COU 15 SSE SPI 25 SSW HUF 20 ENE CKV 55 SSW CKV LIT
15 NNW TXK 15 NNW DAL 10 S BWD JCT 45 SSE DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE
40 WNW ORL 15 ESE DAB.
...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE US. FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS IN ERN NC WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE NC COAST. SECOND IMPULSE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN KS WITH A THIRD VORTICITY MAX COMING ONSHORE IN SRN CA. AT
LOWER-LEVELS...A COASTAL FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SRN NC. A
WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NWD ACROSS N TX WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS
RETURNING TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
...FAR SERN NC...
A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SE NC COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING DRIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF THE COASTAL FRONT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MULTICELL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND AREAS. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
DEWPOINTS FROM 55-60 F WERE ADVECTING NWD BEHIND A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WAS
SITUATED ACROSS FAR W TX. TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING IN THIS AREA MAY
INITIATE A FEW STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OFF THE
DAVIS/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CAP REMAINING
LARGELY IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET. THE DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS A VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM OR TWO TO
INITIATE BY LATE EVENING OR AROUND 06Z IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND MLCAPES PROGGED TO BE AROUND
1500 J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD INTO ERN OK.
FARTHER NE ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION TO THE MID MS
VALLEY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER AND COVER
A LARGER AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPES OF 250-500
J/KG...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07
20 NNE MRF 15 WSW INK 20 W LBB 20 ESE AMA 50 SSW P28 25 ESE EMP
35 N COU 15 SSE SPI 25 SSW HUF 20 ENE CKV 55 SSW CKV LIT
15 NNW TXK 15 NNW DAL 10 S BWD JCT 45 SSE DRT.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PIE
40 WNW ORL 15 ESE DAB.
...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE US. FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS IN ERN NC WITH ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG THE NC COAST. SECOND IMPULSE WAS LOCATED ACROSS
WESTERN KS WITH A THIRD VORTICITY MAX COMING ONSHORE IN SRN CA. AT
LOWER-LEVELS...A COASTAL FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS FAR SRN NC. A
WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NWD ACROSS N TX WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS
RETURNING TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
...FAR SERN NC...
A LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SE NC COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND STRONGER DYNAMIC
FORCING DRIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF THE COASTAL FRONT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MULTICELL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND AREAS. AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
DEWPOINTS FROM 55-60 F WERE ADVECTING NWD BEHIND A WARM FRONT
MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WAS
SITUATED ACROSS FAR W TX. TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING IN THIS AREA MAY
INITIATE A FEW STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OFF THE
DAVIS/GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE CAP REMAINING
LARGELY IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET. THE DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS A VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE BOUNDARY...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED ELEVATED STORM OR TWO TO
INITIATE BY LATE EVENING OR AROUND 06Z IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND MLCAPES PROGGED TO BE AROUND
1500 J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD INTO ERN OK.
FARTHER NE ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION TO THE MID MS
VALLEY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORCING...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER AND COVER
A LARGER AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPES OF 250-500
J/KG...THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS
GAG P28 20 SE EMP JEF 40 SW BLV POF ARG LIT HOT DUA 50 NNW ABI CDS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E AQQ TLH MGR
45 NNW AYS SAV 35 ESE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELD 45 NNW GGG
20 SE DAL SEP SJT 35 W CDS 40 WNW GAG DDC SLN P35 BMI 40 WSW DAY
CRW ROA 40 S ROA GLH ELD.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN MOUNTAIN W AND FALLS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES AND PACIFIC NW. LARGELY ZONAL SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY2...HOWEVER...FEATURING A SERIES OF WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS.
AT SURFACE...INTERFACE BETWEEN PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR AND
RESIDUAL CONTINENTAL-POLAR TRAJECTORIES SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED SRN
PLAINS WARM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM BECAUSE OF
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE POSITION ADJUSTMENTS BY STRATUS CLOUD
COVER. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EVIDENT BETWEEN ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL
WITH THIS PROCESS...NGM BEING BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW THROUGH DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT...AVN WITH LATE-
AFTERNOON LEE TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO TO W-CENTRAL
TX...AND ETA HAVING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX
BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS LESS
REASONABLE GIVEN LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EXPECT
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH PRIMARILY MIXING-
RELATED EWD MOTION DURING EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
--- SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION ---
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES COMPEL A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT-RISK AREA
ATTM...WHICH MAY BE NARROWED AS FOCI BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
ISOLATED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
BUT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE
AFTER DARK. WEAK CONVECTIVE FORCING IS EXPECTED DIURNALLY...EXCEPT
NEAR DRYLINE AND LEE TROUGH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED. CAPPING BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AND MAY PRECLUDE DIURNAL TSTMS ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND 7.5-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT
HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER MOST OF AREA...HOWEVER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE. WARM FRONT MAY BE TOO DIFFUSE TO BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND TO
ITS N WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS BACKED.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD
ACROSS ERN OK/AR OR OZARKS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
30-40 KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA/MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTE TO
INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CDS
GAG P28 20 SE EMP JEF 40 SW BLV POF ARG LIT HOT DUA 50 NNW ABI CDS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E AQQ TLH MGR
45 NNW AYS SAV 35 ESE SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELD 45 NNW GGG
20 SE DAL SEP SJT 35 W CDS 40 WNW GAG DDC SLN P35 BMI 40 WSW DAY
CRW ROA 40 S ROA GLH ELD.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD...AS NRN STREAM BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY WITH HEIGHT RISES IN MOUNTAIN W AND FALLS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES AND PACIFIC NW. LARGELY ZONAL SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAY2...HOWEVER...FEATURING A SERIES OF WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS.
AT SURFACE...INTERFACE BETWEEN PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR AND
RESIDUAL CONTINENTAL-POLAR TRAJECTORIES SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED SRN
PLAINS WARM FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM BECAUSE OF
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE POSITION ADJUSTMENTS BY STRATUS CLOUD
COVER. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EVIDENT BETWEEN ETA/NGM/SPECTRAL
WITH THIS PROCESS...NGM BEING BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW THROUGH DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT...AVN WITH LATE-
AFTERNOON LEE TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO TO W-CENTRAL
TX...AND ETA HAVING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX
BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS LESS
REASONABLE GIVEN LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EXPECT
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH PRIMARILY MIXING-
RELATED EWD MOTION DURING EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
--- SRN PLAINS TO OZARK REGION ---
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES COMPEL A BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT-RISK AREA
ATTM...WHICH MAY BE NARROWED AS FOCI BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
ISOLATED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
BUT GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE
AFTER DARK. WEAK CONVECTIVE FORCING IS EXPECTED DIURNALLY...EXCEPT
NEAR DRYLINE AND LEE TROUGH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED. CAPPING BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE AND MAY PRECLUDE DIURNAL TSTMS ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP.
MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F SURFACE
DEW POINTS AND 7.5-9 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT
HODOGRAPH SIZE OVER MOST OF AREA...HOWEVER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE. WARM FRONT MAY BE TOO DIFFUSE TO BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR...HOWEVER STRONGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ALONG AND TO
ITS N WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS BACKED.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD
ACROSS ERN OK/AR OR OZARKS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
30-40 KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA/MOIST ADVECTION CONTRIBUTE TO
INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
1430 100 CAROLINA BEACH NEW HANOVER NC 3403 7790 (ILM)
1545 100 LONG BEACH BRUNSWICK NC 3390 7813 (ILM)
1620 88 CAROLINA BEACH NEW HANOVER NC 3403 7790 (ILM)
1625 75 2 SE WOOD BRUNSWICK NC 3615 7803 REPORTED IN THE CITY OF DELCO (ILM)
1625 75 1 S WOOD COLUMBUS NC 3616 7806 REPORTED IN THE CITY OF DELCO (ILM)
1712 75 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 STATE PORT (ILM)
1715 75 LELAND BRUNSWICK NC 3425 7804 (ILM)
1734 125 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1800 75 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1817 88 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1839 100 WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEW HANOVER NC 3421 7780 (ILM)
1840 75 OCRACOKE HYDE NC 3511 7598 (MHX)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1805 60 CEDAR ISLAND CARTERET NC 3498 7636 (MHX)
1545 100 LONG BEACH BRUNSWICK NC 3390 7813 (ILM)
1620 88 CAROLINA BEACH NEW HANOVER NC 3403 7790 (ILM)
1625 75 2 SE WOOD BRUNSWICK NC 3615 7803 REPORTED IN THE CITY OF DELCO (ILM)
1625 75 1 S WOOD COLUMBUS NC 3616 7806 REPORTED IN THE CITY OF DELCO (ILM)
1712 75 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 STATE PORT (ILM)
1715 75 LELAND BRUNSWICK NC 3425 7804 (ILM)
1734 125 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1800 75 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1817 88 WILMINGTON NEW HANOVER NC 3423 7793 (ILM)
1839 100 WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEW HANOVER NC 3421 7780 (ILM)
1840 75 OCRACOKE HYDE NC 3511 7598 (MHX)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1805 60 CEDAR ISLAND CARTERET NC 3498 7636 (MHX)
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE LTS 45 WNW END 25 SW HUT 10 W TOP 45 NNW COU 20 W STL
45 N POF 20 ESE UNO 30 ESE HRO 10 SSE FSM 20 W DUA SPS 15 SE LTS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 40 NW HOU
40 ESE LFK 35 WNW JAN 20 NE LGC 20 SW AGS 25 SW CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE HOT 35 E PRX
45 E DAL 35 N ACT 15 S ABI 25 SW LTS 30 E GAG 30 NNW P28
25 NNW SLN 25 ENE FNB 35 S CGX 40 WNW CLE 20 NNW YNG 35 S HLG
25 ENE HTS 25 SSE PAH 15 ENE HOT.
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A WEAK MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NRN ID. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TO NEB/WRN IA/NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/NW IA...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH NE KS/EXTREME NRN MO BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LEE CYCLONE NOW IN EXTREME NE NM WILL
DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK DURING THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER NE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES ACROSS IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE
FRONT AND/OR THE DRYLINE TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...ERN KS/MO/NW AR/OK AREA...
DEW POINTS NEAR 60 F HAVE SPREAD NWD TO THE RED RIVER AS OF
03Z...AND THE 00Z ETA/ETA-KF FORECASTS OF 60 DEW POINTS INTO SE
KS/SW MO BY LATE AFTERNOON APPEAR REASONABLE. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F WITHIN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG FROM N TX ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK TO SE
KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY INVOF E/SE KS/W CENTRAL MO FROM 21-00Z TO THE NE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN KS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK.
FARTHER S IN TX...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE DRYLINE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF WEAK CAP PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW AND 15-25 KT LOW-LEVEL S/SSWLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND
WEAK ASCENT/SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS TO
GRADUALLY MERGE INTO MORE OF A BAND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE KS/NE
OK/MO/NW AR BY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST COMBINATIONS OF
INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR TORNADOES...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
...GULF COAST AREA...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
TO S TX. AS THIS MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK WAA REGIME. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS AREA.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE LTS 45 WNW END 25 SW HUT 10 W TOP 45 NNW COU 20 W STL
45 N POF 20 ESE UNO 30 ESE HRO 10 SSE FSM 20 W DUA SPS 15 SE LTS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 40 NW HOU
40 ESE LFK 35 WNW JAN 20 NE LGC 20 SW AGS 25 SW CHS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE HOT 35 E PRX
45 E DAL 35 N ACT 15 S ABI 25 SW LTS 30 E GAG 30 NNW P28
25 NNW SLN 25 ENE FNB 35 S CGX 40 WNW CLE 20 NNW YNG 35 S HLG
25 ENE HTS 25 SSE PAH 15 ENE HOT.
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A WEAK MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NRN ID. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TO NEB/WRN IA/NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS ERN
NEB/NW IA...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH NE KS/EXTREME NRN MO BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LEE CYCLONE NOW IN EXTREME NE NM WILL
DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK DURING THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER NE ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES ACROSS IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE
FRONT AND/OR THE DRYLINE TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...ERN KS/MO/NW AR/OK AREA...
DEW POINTS NEAR 60 F HAVE SPREAD NWD TO THE RED RIVER AS OF
03Z...AND THE 00Z ETA/ETA-KF FORECASTS OF 60 DEW POINTS INTO SE
KS/SW MO BY LATE AFTERNOON APPEAR REASONABLE. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F WITHIN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT
MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG FROM N TX ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK TO SE
KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST
LIKELY INVOF E/SE KS/W CENTRAL MO FROM 21-00Z TO THE NE OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN KS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY
DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK.
FARTHER S IN TX...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE DRYLINE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF WEAK CAP PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW AND 15-25 KT LOW-LEVEL S/SSWLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND
WEAK ASCENT/SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS TO
GRADUALLY MERGE INTO MORE OF A BAND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE KS/NE
OK/MO/NW AR BY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST COMBINATIONS OF
INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR TORNADOES...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR.
...GULF COAST AREA...
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
TO S TX. AS THIS MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK WAA REGIME. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS AREA.
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Rob-TheStormChaser
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW GLS 45 N VCT
35 N HDO 45 SSW SJT 35 NNE SJT 35 W MWL 50 ENE DAL 20 NW ELD
40 ESE GWO 25 ENE 0A8 20 WNW MCN 40 NW AGS 10 SSW CLT 20 NE GSO
60 ESE LYH 35 ESE RIC 30 SSW WAL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 25 NE SEA
30 SSW DLS 20 NW LMT 15 ENE RBL 20 NNW SAC 15 S MRY.
MIGRATORY PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ERODING
SOMEWHAT BY 13/18Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME SE OHIO EWD
INTO E CENTRAL VA. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT WILL EXTEND
OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY ON THEN EXTENDING OVER THE VA/NC AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 65-75 KT WILL
BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AT THE
SAME TIME. AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE TO 2000 J/KG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. PROBLEM...HOWEVER...IS THAT SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WLY/WSWLY INDICATING A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...NRN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF IMPULSE FROM BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA
FORECAST AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE AS WELL.
...SRN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO OK...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AFTER 14/00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 35-45 KT FROM WEST CENTRAL
TX NWD THROUGH N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE FORCING WILL BE WEAK FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...YET THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO SRN OK BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW GLS 45 N VCT
35 N HDO 45 SSW SJT 35 NNE SJT 35 W MWL 50 ENE DAL 20 NW ELD
40 ESE GWO 25 ENE 0A8 20 WNW MCN 40 NW AGS 10 SSW CLT 20 NE GSO
60 ESE LYH 35 ESE RIC 30 SSW WAL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 25 NE SEA
30 SSW DLS 20 NW LMT 15 ENE RBL 20 NNW SAC 15 S MRY.
MIGRATORY PATTERN CONTINUES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE LEE
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ERODING
SOMEWHAT BY 13/18Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME SE OHIO EWD
INTO E CENTRAL VA. WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT WILL EXTEND
OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY ON THEN EXTENDING OVER THE VA/NC AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL JET STREAK OF 65-75 KT WILL
BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING OVER THE DELMARVA REGION AT THE
SAME TIME. AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE TO 2000 J/KG WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. PROBLEM...HOWEVER...IS THAT SURFACE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE WLY/WSWLY INDICATING A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.
THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...NRN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST...
VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF IMPULSE FROM BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PACIFIC. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA
FORECAST AROUND 6.5C/KM. LACK OF SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
BETTER LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE AS WELL.
...SRN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO OK...
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NWD
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AFTER 14/00Z ACROSS THIS REGION. MUCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE 35-45 KT FROM WEST CENTRAL
TX NWD THROUGH N CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE FORCING WILL BE WEAK FOR ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...YET THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NWD INTO SRN OK BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
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