Dose of Reality

[Anonymous]

For those in the MA, and you know who you are, the next two systems will feature ice and rain.

If we want snow we need to move North into PA, upstate NY, OSWEGO...

Stupid ice and rain...only in the MA, can it be 9 degrees this morning only to get freezing rain and then rain on Tuesday...

Reality should tell us we do not have two snowy winters in a row here in the MA.

[Lowpressure]

That pretty much sums things up here.

I agree 9 one morning and rain the next day. I had Sat-8, Sun 14, and Monday 14 degrees and looks like rain for Tuesday!

[Lowpressure]

NWS here sticking to winter mix with no mention of rain for most areas. We will see tonight.

[Anonymous]

I am really gonna enjoy that ice!!!!



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lowpressure]

Now NWS dropping mention of snow. Now going with mix to rain after 9 a.m. Tuesday. Just like BEF said. Oh well.

[Anonymous]

Well if we get plain rain after 9am tomorrow, we'll have to hope it stays in the low/mid 30s all day. Perhaps the rain will change back to some sleet before ending tomorrow afternoon.



-Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lowpressure]

Who knows any more, one thing is for sure.

It wll all be ice when we drop back well below freezing again that night.

[Anonymous]

Lowpressure...this will not be a prolonged ice event my friend, mainily rain and late week storm will also be mainly rain.

[JCT777]

The late week event is still up for grabs, IMO. From N VA northward, this still has the possibility of bringing snow and ice.

[Anonymous]

JCT777...IMHO...I think the significant snow/ice totals will be North Central PA and higher...south of the Mason Dixon Line should be mainly a rain event with little wintry mix.

[Anonymous]

Yep now that we are acknowledging the reality of rain tomorrow from 9 am on, we need to look for several variables with respect to snowpack.....

Maximum heating tomorrow, cooling tomorrow night to refreeze any slush, length of period of rain, and rainfall rates. How heavy will this rain become and for how long.

Sure, I'm an incurable snow addict.

We may lose the snowpack in Woodbridge; after all, it's compacted to only 3 inches with ice on top. Some southern-facing exposures are already bare ground, even with all the cold weather. However, snow mounds will probably survive the rain onslaught. The snow in snow mounds is dry snow, which will absorb a good deal of rain, but there will be some melting. If we luck out with the highs tomorrow and merely have to put up with a very cold rain and a high only around 34, we may fare better. If there is a good ice buildup overnight, that may help the snowpack a little. There is another terrible possibility; that of the precip onset holding up til about 7am or so. Then we may be up against a pretty much all-plain rain event lasting well into Tuesday night.

This is not exactly a very exciting prospect here in N VA unless you hate snow lol. Last February we had 9 inches of snow on the ground then endured a 4-inch rain at 36 degrees. That rain simply smacked down. The snowpack absorbed some of the rain, but that was a lot of water. We lost only 2 to 3 inches of snow due to the fact that the high temps only reached 36 degrees throughout the rain event. I was stunned that we still had a good snowcover after the rain moved away.

This time around, the cons are.......

We have a thin snowpack, only 3 to 4 inches.

We may be up against a long rain event, from 9am to 7pm or even longer.

The temps may soar into the upper 30s/low 40s or even milder.

The pros are...................

We have a quarter to half inch ice layer on top of the snow.

The ground is very, very cold, and hard-frozen to boot.

Tonight we may get very, very lucky and pick up a few hours of sleet and freezing rain accumulation on top of the existing snowpack and on objects.

The one prob with the frozen ground is that with all the rain tomorrow, pools of water may form, demolishing whatever snow survives the rain onslaught, and frankly, I believe even with a high tomorrow of 33, we will still witness a good 90 percent of the ambient snowpack gone by 6pm Tuesday.

The only good news is that the snowpiles all over town will likely make it through this rain incursion. The "Gulag" region at Potomac Mills will likely be history by tomorrow afternoon. The snowpiles there will still be there come tomorrow night.

The probable loss of snowpack in N VA will certainly contribute to milder weather almost immediately. We will have lost the cooling effect of snowpack on nighttime lows and on daytime highs. We will likely average in the 40s all this week, and set the stage for possibly more plain rain later this week. The ground will still be cold, even somewhat frozen, and heavy rain late this week could lead to flooding.

However grim this week may appear to snow lovers here in N VA, I would not write winter completely off yet.

There is a lot of cold air up in Canada yet, and the strong STJ will continue its antics through February and on into March.

All it will take is a good CAD event plus a wet qpf of 1.5 over N VA and just like that we could be looking at a good snow, but to get there we have to go through something that will not be very pleasant.

We have to endure Rain Week.

I can tell ya that tomorrow is not going to be an easy day for yours truly. It will be grim and tough, watching my precious snow melt away under the onslaught of all that rain.

February is known for warming Climo, but it is also well-known for big snows in N VA.

Feb 19, 1979 23 inches
Feb 11, 1983 17 inches
Feb 16, 2003 12 inches plus 4 inches sleet

Yeah Feb can bring big exciting snows to N VA, but the caveat is this: We usually see a heavy rain w/50s-60s inside of 7 to 10 days that simply washes the snow away with amazing efficiency.

I would not write winter off yet here. Perhaps after March 15th or so.........


-Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!! Pray for chillier temps tomorrow!!!!

[Lowpressure]

Lowpressure...this will not be a prolonged ice event my friend, mainily rain and late week storm will also be mainly rain.

I understand that, I was referring to all of the rain freezing at night when we go back below 32.