CAD event later this week trending stronger and stronger...

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Stormsfury
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CAD event later this week trending stronger and stronger...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:07 pm

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SF
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#2 Postby JCT777 » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:11 pm

Nice discussion, and I agree with your thoughts SF. Those in the Mid-Atlantic (NC up through PA) who have written off this storm as a mostly rain event may need to think again.
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:16 pm

Yeah, I see that Friday may NOT be plain rain in N VA............................

Okay I will keep tabs on that system too. I will re-word the first post on my Rain thread to reflect that.



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: CAD event later this week trending stronger and stronger

#4 Postby Anonymous » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:17 pm

Stormsfury wrote:www.stormsfury1.com

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SF


Yes this is becoming more interesting by the minute. I tell ya, one day I'll throw my NOAA weather radio in the trash. At least they are trending down the temps here now for THURS/FRI. Earlier they had us in the low 60's !! They are crazy !! There's no way that's going to happen with the CAD coming in THURS/FRI. The upstate already has ZR THURS. I don't know what they're seeing with all these warm temps - it's not April lol !
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#5 Postby Weather4Life23 » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:25 pm

i want to get someone elses opinion on this. I just listened to a local met. here on the news and he says that the late week storm is screaming rain here. It seems like he almost guarenteed it. He said because of the deep trough back west and ridge south and east that it will be a big rain.
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#6 Postby Guest » Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:43 pm

I say this late week system can go either way along the east coast and as well for the OV. Im not betting anything on this system because it has screw written all over it big time for all areas mentioned above. Thats my thoughts on it. Good discussion SF.
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#7 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Feb 02, 2004 6:06 pm

Jeb wrote:Yeah, I see that Friday may NOT be plain rain in N VA............................

Okay I will keep tabs on that system too. I will re-word the first post on my Rain thread to reflect that.



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


MUCH of the Mid-Atlantic will not see all RA Thursday night-Friday.

Scott
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 02, 2004 6:10 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
Jeb wrote:Yeah, I see that Friday may NOT be plain rain in N VA............................

Okay I will keep tabs on that system too. I will re-word the first post on my Rain thread to reflect that.



-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


MUCH of the Mid-Atlantic will not see all RA Thursday night-Friday.

Scott


10000000000000000000000% agreed with that....
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#9 Postby JQ Public » Mon Feb 02, 2004 6:33 pm

Weather4Life23 wrote:i want to get someone elses opinion on this. I just listened to a local met. here on the news and he says that the late week storm is screaming rain here. It seems like he almost guarenteed it. He said because of the deep trough back west and ridge south and east that it will be a big rain.


I must have been listening to the same met! Greg Fishel is the man, but thats besides the point. Anyone have a comment on what he said?
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#10 Postby Weather4Life23 » Mon Feb 02, 2004 7:00 pm

JQ Public wrote:
Weather4Life23 wrote:i want to get someone elses opinion on this. I just listened to a local met. here on the news and he says that the late week storm is screaming rain here. It seems like he almost guarenteed it. He said because of the deep trough back west and ridge south and east that it will be a big rain.


I must have been listening to the same met! Greg Fishel is the man, but thats besides the point. Anyone have a comment on what he said?


Have you met him before?
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Feb 02, 2004 7:20 pm

New ECMWF 1039mb HIGH wedging straight down into GA on Thurs ...

On day 4, the ECMWF wants to slide the high right under the NF low ...

ECMWF MSLP Day 4 ...

ECMWF day 3 500mb heights ...

ECMWF Day 4 500mb heights ...

ECMWF's 850mb temperatures are awfully warm, but COLDER than last night's run ...

ECMWF Day 3

ECMWF Day 4

Here's the issue ... on Day 3, the ECMWF's depiction of a strong damming high is a DRY WEDGING ... the 850mb and 700mb RH's are very dry ... but the RH's become quite high in North Carolina on Day 4... furthermore, the EC depicts a SE Ridge and strong Central US ridging ... which has me going totally against the grain in its (and other model depictions of an inland runner, and secondary development screaming through the SE...)

Are the models holding back the s/w energy in the Southwest states too long? ... Unclear, but it LOOKS like that it isn't given the rather progressive nature of the flow ... however, subtle stronger with the high and colder trends have started ...

SF
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#12 Postby JQ Public » Mon Feb 02, 2004 7:41 pm

Weather4Life23 wrote:Have you met him before?


Yes I have met him before. Back in the day i participated in an explorer post at WRAL, and I met alot of the anchors and tv personalities. Its been a while since high SChool though...about 3 years. He probably doesn't remember me but he's an institution around here.

BTW, thanks for the info SF!
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#13 Postby Suncat » Tue Feb 03, 2004 2:34 pm

I'd love to see some more winter weather, but current forecasts are calling for rain at the end of the week and warm temperatures. Yuck! :(
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#14 Postby JQ Public » Wed Feb 04, 2004 6:59 pm

Definitly looks like the CAD will not hold very long. Heard the jet stream winds will be very strong and therefore there will be a sharp contrast in temps depending on which side of the front you're on! May get to 60 in raleigh 70+ in wilmington! You may get much higher SF!
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#15 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Feb 04, 2004 7:04 pm

JQ Public wrote:Definitly looks like the CAD will not hold very long. Heard the jet stream winds will be very strong and therefore there will be a sharp contrast in temps depending on which side of the front you're on! May get to 60 in raleigh 70+ in wilmington! You may get much higher SF!


Yeah, this event is transient, and I JUST finished an update on my website .. (I'll start a thread in just a minute)...

SF
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