Storms then some Lt. Snow for N Texas

[CaptinCrunch]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2004


VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
POLAR JET EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS.

FIRST SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WILL APPROACH NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FIRST WAVE MOVES
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UNDER MOST CIRCUMSTANCES...THE FORECAST WOULD BE STRAIGHT FORWARD
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND PRECIP WOULD END. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME IN BEHIND THE FIRST AND BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. TO ADD ANOTHER COMPLEXITY TO THE
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE TROUBLE WARMING
MUCH...AS COLD AIR BACK DOORS NORTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST. THE AVN
SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. HOWEVER...ANY
PRECIP THAT FORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. PARTIAL THICKNESS STILL INDICATE THE ANY PRECIP
THAT FALLS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXPECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. ON THE UP
SIDE...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM...AND
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WOULD BE LIGHT. AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER...MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PRECIP WILL BE AVAILABLE.

[vbhoutex]

UH!!! Could you move that about 250 miles SE please!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

UH!!! Could you move that about 250 miles SE please!!!!

Yeah right, send some of that here!

[PTrackerLA]

No mention of a possibility here, just lots of rain then a cool weekend with a COLD rain Monday .

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
225 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2004

EAST WINDS MODIFYING LOWER SE TX TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
TONIGHT FOR BPT AREA. SHIED AWAY FROM WARMER MESOETA TEMPS
ELSEWHERE PER RECENT VERIFICATION. GOOD RADIATION AGAIN TNITE WITH
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLING BELOW
GUIDANCE AWAY FROM LOWER SE TX.

RAIN EVENT GETS GOING IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONCOMING
PACIFIC SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AS IT SLOWS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WHICH ALSO BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OUR
AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL OFF THE GULF...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...
STRONG THETA RIDGING AND PWS OVER AN INCH WILL KEEP POPS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ASSUMING NEXT RUN IS
SIMILAR...AND THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENCY LATELY...A FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE REQUIRED. WILL LET THE MID CREW PULL THE TRIGGER ON THIS
ONE.

WILL INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THURSDAY'S FORECAST. 50KT LOW
LEVEL JET NOTED WITH SHEAR SFC TO 10K FT. SPC INCLUDES SE TX AND SW
LA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR DAY 2.

EXTENDED...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE SCALE TROF WHICH BROUGHT OUR EARLIER RAIN EVENT HEADS
EAST. GFS SHOWING A GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN NWLY
FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. JET STAYS WELL SOUTH...ALLOWING SURFACE
POLAR HIGH TO RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER TROF DIGS INTO
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLE COLD RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY AS FRONTS
STALL NEAR THE COAST.

[gboudx]

That forecast for DFW could range from nothing, to a cold rain, to 2 inches of snow. I can remember a couple years ago a forecast for flurries. When the "flurries" stopped, there was 2 inches on the ground at my house. Good luck Chris!

[CaptinCrunch]

That happened last January too, forecast was for a few snow flurries and we got 2" in the yard and 3" on the cars. Local news stations don't do winter wx forecasting very good.