Discussion about models,patterns and seasonal forecasts

[cycloneye]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

When you open this link take a look at the right of that map where you will see waters warming off the coast of africa and if the trend for warming of that area continues then we will have another fairly active cape verde season as the waves that will roll off africa will find juicy waters to make some of the waves grow in intensity but time will tell if these warming waters out there are fluctuations or it is a trend.

And on the other hand of the left of the map blue colors continue to show up in the el nino areas 1-2 and in part of el nino 3 area which indicate that el nino will have a hard time making an appearence.

[FLguy]

yes and it is also correlated strongly with the Negative phase of the NAO. a -NAO has an enhancing influence on short term TC development tendencies in the atlantic basin, especially during the cape verde season.

[Stormsfury]

Quite an expanse of equatorial cooling from about 135ºW to the South American Coast ... whoa ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Not saying weak Nino conditions will not develop during the season but the ENSO models = trash.

[Anonymous]

Current Atlantic anamolies don't mean much.

[FLguy]

Quite an expanse of equatorial cooling from about 135ºW to the South American Coast ... whoa ...

SF

classic split developing in the ENSO regions.

[Stormsfury]

Quite an expanse of equatorial cooling from about 135ºW to the South American Coast ... whoa ...

SF

classic split developing in the ENSO regions.

A battle of supremecy, if you will ... WARM WEST/COOL EAST ... battle lines drawn ... look out!

[FLguy]

Quite an expanse of equatorial cooling from about 135ºW to the South American Coast ... whoa ...

SF

classic split developing in the ENSO regions.

A battle of supremecy, if you will ... WARM WEST/COOL EAST ... battle lines drawn ... look out!

it should result in an overall neutral signal, although that said, the last time we saw such a pronounced split was the winter of 2001-02. and in that particular year, the cold E PAC dominated the pattern resulting in a more La Nina like pattern.

[cycloneye]

That battle between the cool and warm waters in the pacific will be very interesting to watch in the comming months to see who will be the dominant one.

And in the atlantic the ATC is making it's job mantaining the waters relativily warm in many areas.

[vbhoutex]

Not looking like there will be much, if any El Nino to deal with this year. Maybe another La Nada or very mild El Nino. If the warming trends continue in the E ATL I may have to revise my preliminary thoughts on this season, which were trending towards bringing down my numbers from last season.

[Anonymous]

Atlantic SSTAs at this time of the year don't mean squat. "Oh know the waters are warming off the COA this will be a bad CV season and blah blah blah"...remember 2002? The COA was boiling at this time of year then dramatically cooled off towards the spring (which can easily be explained by a rapid change in the NAO phase). Just because they're warm now doesn't mean they will be during the peak of the season. Ok?

And as for the battle between the split ENSO regions, it's really a no-brainer as to how the split will evolve over time (though for the time being, like FLguy said, it will produce a generally neutral signal)...all I can say is, consider the current MJO set-up and which phase is moving through the Pacific right now, as well as the subsurface temp anomalies...

[FLguy]

Atlantic SSTAs at this time of the year don't mean squat. "Oh know the waters are warming off the COA this will be a bad CV season and blah blah blah"...remember 2002? The COA was boiling at this time of year then dramatically cooled off towards the spring (which can easily be explained by a rapid change in the NAO phase). Just because they're warm now doesn't mean they will be during the peak of the season. Ok?

And as for the battle between the split ENSO regions, it's really a no-brainer as to how the split will evolve over time (though for the time being, like FLguy said, it will produce a generally neutral signal)...all I can say is, consider the current MJO set-up and which phase is moving through the Pacific right now, as well as the subsurface temp anomalies...

yea, i agree. but the MJO on the other hand is a better short-term predictor of tropical development.

[Anonymous]

yea, i agree. but the MJO on the other hand is a better short-term predictor of tropical development.

Better short-term TC formation predictor, yes definately. But it can also temporarily cause modest changes in SSTAs.

[Altima2005]

the best approach to this is the boring but necessary wait-and see approach. let's face it, if we have ssta profiles like they are now during the peak of this season, we could be in for some strong systems. we'll simply have to see if the pattern is condusive for landfalling systems this season.

[cycloneye]

the best approach to this is the boring but necessary wait-and see approach. let's face it, if we have ssta profiles like they are now during the peak of this season, we could be in for some strong systems. we'll simply have to see if the pattern is condusive for landfalling systems this season.

Welcome to storm2k and join our discussions and analylisis of the tropics.

[Altima2005]

thanks...looking forward to it. not a real big fan of spending a lot of time on these places (not like i have a lot), but when something strikes me as interesting, i'll join in on the dicussion. moderation keeps things fresh.

i live in florida and i refuse to suggest that we are overdue in such way. i believe firmly that statistics are open to different forms of interpretation. with that in mind, my interpretation of the statistics concerning landfall storms is like this: the atlantic is large, much larger than the number of storms that we have in any given season. i know that i am comparing two completely different units, but if florida were to stand a truly good chance of getting whacked every few years, we'd have to have 20-25 named storms a season. the pattern we are in now isn't like the pattern we witnessed in the 1960's. surely, it is starting to change and i feel that seasons may get rough for the us coast in the near future. weather patterns should be the focus...not just numbers. it takes a very, very threatening weather pattern to get me excited about the possibility of a storm hitting somewhere.

having said that, i'm not a big fan of seasonal forecasts. the weather pattern we are in now supports generally above average seasons. it takes many, many negative factors to slow today's seasons down. i expect this year to be no different from the last 7 active ones as far as numbers go. the point is, i believe in saving the scrutiny for the tough forecasts. i like dr. gray's research, but many people are interested in one thing above all in those long forecast write-ups: the numbers.

as for me, i'll take it pound by pound, storm by storm.

[cycloneye]

thanks...looking forward to it. not a real big fan of spending a lot of time on these places (not like i have a lot), but when something strikes me as interesting, i'll join in on the dicussion. moderation keeps things fresh.

i live in florida and i refuse to suggest that we are overdue in such way. i believe firmly that statistics are open to different forms of interpretation. with that in mind, my interpretation of the statistics concerning landfall storms is like this: the atlantic is large, much larger than the number of storms that we have in any given season. i know that i am comparing two completely different units, but if florida were to stand a truly good chance of getting whacked every few years, we'd have to have 20-25 named storms a season. the pattern we are in now isn't like the pattern we witnessed in the 1960's. surely, it is starting to change and i feel that seasons may get rough for the us coast in the near future. weather patterns should be the focus...not just numbers. it takes a very, very threatening weather pattern to get me excited about the possibility of a storm hitting somewhere.

having said that, i'm not a big fan of seasonal forecasts. the weather pattern we are in now supports generally above average seasons. it takes many, many negative factors to slow today's seasons down. i expect this year to be no different from the last 7 active ones as far as numbers go. the point is, i believe in saving the scrutiny for the tough forecasts.

as for me, i'll take it pound by pound, storm by storm.

I agree 100% with you about the weather patterns which we have to be more focused on and not so much on the numbers because those patterns will determine if landfalls occur in the EC of the US,the GOM or in the caribbean. Where I am in Puerto Rico it has been 6 years since Georges made landfall and that period of time 6 years may induce many people to say that PR is due for a hit but it all comes down to the patterns that are out there thay determine if for example the caribbean will have hurricanes threatening the islands or not.

[Anonymous]

Agree totally about the weather patterns being more important to predict than just numbers. But personally, I can't STAND the wait and see approach. I much prefer doing research when possible to get ideas about WHAT the pattern will be like this upcoming summer/fall. If all you do is sit and watch the weather evolve, and looking at nothing but the CURRENT weather, then what's the point?

[Altima2005]

as for me, i'll take it pound by pound, storm by storm.

supercane...nice "meeting" you...lol...

i'll still give my takes about what storms may do. but, i prefer to give my takes on a storm by storm basis.

there's no way on this rock mass that i will try and predict whether or not we will have a trough protecting the ec this summer. dr. gray has alluded that it is impossible to do this. thus, he does not say exactly what regions will get hit during a season. i will take my hat off and bow to anyone who can do that (with decent consistency, too). it's nearly impossible to predict daily changing weather patterns months in advance. perhaps in the late 90's we could predict (somewhat) that the ec would get hit. i do believe that year-to-year trends exist. however, many seasons feature pattenrs that differ from year-to-year.

for the reasons above, analogs aren't useful for doing much more than predicting the amount of activity in a season. look back at some of the more reliable records from 1950-present. many years don't feature hits in the same places. if they do, some may be prone to keep forecasting activity to strike the same area. what happens then? the pattern changes.

i don't like predicting a cv wave to hit the ec as a hurricane 15 days in advance, much less trying to pinpoint what areas will get hit 5 months in advance. not to say that many people here do that.

i like to be reasonable.

curiousity and an urge to forecast long range tends to come with these grounds. at the same time, it can breed some foolish results. even the pros try to do this...cautiously...and with state of the art weather forecasting methods...but even these fall short of being truly accurate. case and point? look at how much isabel's track changed during the course of the storm. granted, i believe that the error margins were pretty good.

you simply can't be too confident in any pinpoint-style long range forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldnt place too much stock in the COA temps. More important are the SAL outbreaks, as well as the position and orientation and the longetivity of the monsoon trough that develops there in June