Weather Thread for VA tonight thru Friday Feb 6....

[Anonymous]

Okay folks, I am starting a Weather Thread for the Late Week event.

However, it appears that N VA/DCA is in for a TREMENDOUS amount of heavy, heavy rains with this. There is however an extremely small, minuscule possibility for some brief light snow/sleet/freezing rain at the very onset Thursday night before very, very STRONG WAA processes literally overwhelm the CAD at the SFC by very early Friday morning and jack up the temps while delivering some of the heaviest rainfall seen around these parts since Hurricane Isabel.

Yep folks we are facing some serious gully washer rains, and steady rains at that, beginning early Friday and potentially lasting through Friday evening into Saturday. For N VA this rain overload literally screams FLOOD POTENTIAL!!!

We have had three weeks of very cold temps which have frozen the ground. Around the area are various amounts of snowpack still remaining.

Heavy rain will run off, not sink into the frozen ground and will swell nearby rivers, breaking up the ice there which may result in ice jams and potentially more river flooding from ice jam backups. N VA may not be the only region at serious risk from heavy rain/snowmelt considerations resulting from this storm. I believe E PA, perhaps C PA may also face rains or at least a severe ICE threat from this. Yesterday DE, E PA, E MD, SE NY, and most of NJ also received at least an inch to an inch and a half's worth of rain, which puts those places at very high risk for the imminent Friday event.

This weather event will start tomorrow night and continue through early Saturday. Virginia and eastern MD, E PA, DE, SE NY and much of NJ will start out with a light wintry mix tomorrow night. Some localities may see some snow/sleet/ice accums before the precip turns to all rain and becomes very heavy by Friday morning. The rain will be heavy at times, and it will continue through Friday, possibly into Friday night. The rain will run off the frozen ground and pond on roads, yards, grassy areas and run into watercourses and swell the rivers resulting in rising water levels and flooding. If you live near a stream, please monitor it through the upcoming weekend. Be prepared to move immediately to higher ground if flooding occurs. This is a very serious storm situation in the Mid Atlantic because of the frozen ground, existing snowpack, expected rising temperatures with this storm and very, very high qpf values translating into very heavy rainfall over frozen, saturated ground that received significant rainfall only 24 hours ago.

N VA received a quick three quarters of an inch of rain yesterday in 4 hours which resulted in pools of water on the frozen ground that will freeze tonight. The ground in N VA is definately not dry, it is saturated and frozen.

Okay, first update associated with the present wx threat:




420 pm Feb 4 update....................................

Mostly clear, 41 degrees, 21 degree DP, N winds at 5 to 15 with G to 23mph.

Should be clear tonight, will get down in the low 20s. Tomorrow should warm to 37 or so, with increasing clouds.

Tomorrow night, moisture from the approaching system will overspread the chilly air near the sfc and precipitate as possiby a little light snow then change quickly to light sleet then light frzra then plain rain. By Friday morning expect rain rates on the steady increase with surface temps on the rise as well. SE VA may rise into the mid 60s by Friday evening.


More updates on the way from this potentially serious flood threat to the Mid Atlantic region.

Everyone is cordially invited to chime in at any time. Hear of any flood warnings? Chime 'em on in here!!!! This will have to be closely watched through Saturday.



-Jeb

[hurricanedude]

Hey, SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE here friday and friday night including the risk of TORNADOES...how exciting!!

[Anonymous]

Temps are falling off now cuz remaining snowpack and cold ground. All the water on my driveway has gone to ice. Down to 37 degrees and falling. Sun very low on the horizon. We took a major hit from the sun/42-degree combo this afternoon, but that will seem like an arctic blast compared with the heavy rain/STRONG WAA combo act due here in only 30 to 40 hrs lol.

Bye-bye snowpack, hello brown grass and a lot of high water all around by Friday eve..............

A taste of Spring......Coming Soon, to a neighborhood near you!!! Free admission lol!!!


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

I'm just hoping LWX goes with a WSW again for Friday so I get out of school again -- I know we don't stand a chance of seeing any real accumulation of ice or snow. Looks like a total repeat of Tuesday's event with more QPF... unbelievable, two major QPF producers in a row where the high has to slide out to sea right when the precip arrives.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I'm just hoping LWX goes with a WSW again for Friday so I get out of school again -- I know we don't stand a chance of seeing any real accumulation of ice or snow. Looks like a total repeat of Tuesday's event with more QPF... unbelievable, two major QPF producers in a row where the high has to slide out to sea right when the precip arrives.

I think that's un-likely, considering they don't even have you/me under a watch. On the other-hand, I had an advisory tuesday morning, and still had no school. Schools in the area are really cautious when it comes to ice, so there is the possibilty we could have no school friday, though the chances aren't really high.
Also, check this out...

http://wtop.com/index.php?sid=167140&nid=25

[Anonymous]

I think that's un-likely, considering they don't even have you/me under a watch. On the other-hand, I had an advisory tuesday morning, and still had no school. Schools in the area are really cautious when it comes to ice, so there is the possibilty we could have no school friday, though the chances aren't really high.
Also, check this out...

http://wtop.com/index.php?sid=167140&nid=25

Yeah, I found it absolutely unbelievable that the SE suburbs (Charles, Calvert, etc) were all closed... I don't believe they had one drop that was ZR, and NO forecasters had predicted any appreciable icing for them. What a joke. However with Friday's event I think we have one thing going for us that we didn't yesterday... we should see some freezing precip overnight tomorrow, so when it comes to make the decision at 5:30AM there may already be a little snow and ice on the ground... so even if it does wind up changing to rain by 7 or 8 in the morning, they will already have had to make the decision based on the bad conditions earlier. Sounds like a recipe for at least a delay to me (which I'll take any day... it's so much easier to get through school when you can get a good night's sleep... aka sleeping till 9:30AM ).

[Anonymous]

I agree that some school jurisdictions should close the schools on Friday and this is why.

There WILL be some snow, sleet and freezing rain in VA tomorrow night. The ground IS cold-----today, as the sun was going down, water on my driveway in the shade with air temperatures standing at 40 degrees, froze because of cold cold ground temps-----so I do believe that when we do get some snow, sleet and freezing rain overnight Thursday night, there will be slick roadways and the kids should be OFF FRIDAY. Here's the other reason why I think the kids should be OFF on FRIDAY:

THREE INCHES of HEAVY RAIN on FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT!!!

Make NO mistake about this folks-----In the Mid Atlantic, Northern Virginia anyway, the ground is frozen and most if not all of the rain will just run off into streams, which will then FLOOD.

The entire year 2003 was one big rainstorm, and Fall 2003 into Winter 2003-2004 had a lot of rain also, and the ground was SATURATED long before it got so cold and that saturated ground FROZE!!! More rain has since fallen and the ground froze some more!!!!!!!!!!! Then yesterday we got nearly ANOTHER INCH of rain and it just ran off the ground!!!!

Are you beginning to get the picture folks?

Sure I could be wrong.......NOT!!!!! It's going to rain, rain, rain!!!! I have seen those qpf's myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2.0 to 3.0 inches' worth of RAIN with rising sfc temps!!!!!

This scenario SCREAMS FLOODS!!!!! Think of the Potomac Highlands with FAR, FAR more SNOWPACK than we ever got!!! They get this heavy, heavy rain and rising temps, it will melt, ALL AT ONCE!!! Where do you think the water will go?

Right into the creeks and rivers!!! If I had kids, I for one would not want them in a school bus traveling over bridges with creeks overflowing with snowmelt, temps rising into the 40s and 50s with HEAVY RAIN falling and causing FLOODS!!!

Hey school districts!!! Summon up some spine, will ya?!!! This is going to be a MAJOR springlike rain event with attendant FLOODING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cancel classes for Friday!!!! There are going to be some seriously icy roads early Friday morning followed by FLOODS Friday afternoon!!!!

One day off from school ain't gonna hurt those students one little bit!!!

Hey teachers!! Leave the kids alone!! Give 'em the day off!!!

For Goodness' sake!! Look at all the FLOOD WATCHES OUT already!!!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Temp is down to 27 degrees here. We might get down to 17 but we are still progged to soar to 38 tomorrow then struggle to cool to 28 tomorrow night, when a very short period of sleet/ZR kicks off this very rainy party here on the good 'ole East Coast.



-Jeb

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I think that's un-likely, considering they don't even have you/me under a watch. On the other-hand, I had an advisory tuesday morning, and still had no school. Schools in the area are really cautious when it comes to ice, so there is the possibilty we could have no school friday, though the chances aren't really high.
Also, check this out...

http://wtop.com/index.php?sid=167140&nid=25

Yeah, I found it absolutely unbelievable that the SE suburbs (Charles, Calvert, etc) were all closed... I don't believe they had one drop that was ZR, and NO forecasters had predicted any appreciable icing for them. What a joke. However with Friday's event I think we have one thing going for us that we didn't yesterday... we should see some freezing precip overnight tomorrow, so when it comes to make the decision at 5:30AM there may already be a little snow and ice on the ground... so even if it does wind up changing to rain by 7 or 8 in the morning, they will already have had to make the decision based on the bad conditions earlier. Sounds like a recipe for at least a delay to me (which I'll take any day... it's so much easier to get through school when you can get a good night's sleep... aka sleeping till 9:30AM ).

I take that back...your under a watch now. ( I'm not. )
And, yeah, I would take a 2hr. delay anyday too, but the bad thing is, I still have all my classes, just shortend by half-an hour. I hope we get a day off!

THREE INCHES of HEAVY RAIN on FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT!!!

I do think we will get a lot of heavy rain, but not 3"...maybe more around 1.50".

[Lowpressure]

19 degrees in Fredericksburg- not expecting much winter precip, but a bunch of rain. Rappahannock is frozen solid, this could lead to flooding.

[Anonymous]

WHOOPS!!! I MEANT THIS THREAD!!!!!

515pm Feb 5.........................


Okay folks if you live here in the eastern part of N VA all you have to worry about is the onset of precip here tonight.

Current Obs for Woodbridge................

Temperature is 33 degrees. Dewpoint is 15 degrees. Wind is SE at 5 G to 14mph.

This storm will not be a wintry concern for the I-95 Corridor until you go north of Boston. This system has got a screaming Low Level Jet transporting MASSIVE amounts of warm mild air with a BOATLOAD of moisture up from the SSW which means just a harmless rain for us here in VA.

The CAD in place is LAME, which means do not worry yourself too much about winter precip this go-around.

Precip will begin this evening. NWS is honking AFTER MIDNIGHT but I beg to differ, I think it will start at 9pm in Woodbridge. We'll see a little light snow, then sleet then freezing rain. This stuff should change to plain rain in a big hurry and continue on through the night on into Friday Night and become heavy plain rain at times. We could pick up 2 inches + of rain. Watch out near rivers and creeks and low-lying places through the weekend. The ground is frozen and water will pool in low-lying places. The ground is frozen and will not absorb water, thus water will pool and cause runoff problems through late Friday night.

In western VA into MD and PA watch out for ice problems tonight into Friday. Some places will get a mix. Some places will see a few inches of snow then sleet and frzra then rain. This system will be a big ICE headache for some folks.

I will continue with updates into the night, but for most of VA this is only a huge rain event with a BRIEF mixed onset of precip, nothing more.


-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Dewpoints are rising......up to 18 degrees now with ambient air temps at 33 degrees. We may have to watch the frozen onset tonight but I still am not too concerned yet........



-Jeb

[Lowpressure]

Nice round of moderate sleet falling. 6:50 with temp of 32.4

Earlier than I expected for precip.

[Anonymous]

Nice round of moderate sleet falling. 6:50 with temp of 32.4

Earlier than I expected for precip.

Uh-oh........We better keep an eye on this "onset" of the precip shield. Looks as if it is going to begin a lot earlier than NWS is putting out in their latest AFD. Temp here is 32, dewpoint 18 degrees, wind NE 7 mph G to 15mph.

Sure we're in for a lot of rain but I am beginning to believe we may have some mix first, and that we may see some ice.........


You should see the radar returns!!! WOW, that's a lot of snow virga overhead.


-Jeb

[Lowpressure]

Sleet has pretty much stopped currently. When you walk on it you feel it crunch, it is like very small marbles.

[Anonymous]

You're getting hit by standard sleet balls. When that freezing rain starts, it'll form ice and use the sleet as a template/matrix and that ice will build rather quickly, since it will only aid the cold ground in developing ice. However the plain rain later tomorrow will wash it away all too easily with those rising temps. Watch your existing ice/snow surfaces, they will form ice rapidly. Watch it walking outside later tonight while the mix continues to fall. Temps may plummet to the upper 20s before the WAA finally works down to the surface boundary layer.



-Jeb

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Flurries here in Howard County....

[Lowpressure]

Now sleet is coming down pretty hard, everything is coated with sleet. 32.4 degrees.

[Anonymous]

Flurries here in Howard County....

Looks like you'll see a couple, maybe even a few inches of snow accums before you get slammed by the freezing rain and sleet.



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

715pm................................


Temperature is 32 degrees, dewpoint is up to 19 degrees, ENE winds at 5 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Pressure is holding steady at 30.51. Hmm.......may be that the High is holding on........so we might get some icing here after all.

Gonna have to keep an eye on this overnight. Could be getting a little slick before the plain rain sets in later. I am glad I don't have to go anywhere tonight!!!

Those are some really moderate precip returns sliding east/northeast into Fredericksburg.........


-Jeb