winter storm #2 for the central states...

[WXBUFFJIM]

winter storm update
Good evening folks. A busy night across the central United States tonight with a combination of both a winter storm across the central plains and midwestern US and a severe weather episode along the Gulf coastal states. More on the severe weather in the severe wx forum.

Let's look at the winter storm angle to this story. Many problems are expected in areas east of the Rockies tonight through Friday. The problems start tonight across the central Plains and the midwestern United States where Kansas City is under a winter weather advisory and St Louis is now under winter storm warnings at this time. Chicago is now under a winter storm watch and likewise the Quad Cities area for the potential for some moderate to heavy snow amounts. The following is some computer model guidance forecasts on this winter storm across mid America.

18ZETA 6-42 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_006s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_012s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_018s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...ta_slp_042s.gif

18Z GFS 6-42 HOURS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_006s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_012s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_018s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_024s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_030s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_036s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...fs_slp_042s.gif

Currently we have seen reports of anywhere of 2-3 inches of snow across most of Kansas from Wichita to Manhattan with less amounts further east towards Kansas City. However some areas across southern Kansas, especially in Sumner and Harper Counties have seen 6-7 inches of cnow in convective bursts today. But for the most part, amounts have been relatively light so far. However more moisture is being drawn in from the south from the Gulf Of Mexico. This combined with cold air already in place means this winter storm will continue through the central Plains tonight, into the midwest on Thursday and Thursday night and the western and central Great Lakes Region on Friday.

For example, in Kansas City and Topeka, expect a general 2-4 inches of snowfall tonight with an additional inch or two Friday morning. On average, expect total snowfall accumulation of about 3-6 inches of snow in Topeka and Kansas City while a total of 6-7 inches accumulates in the Manhattan and Junction City, KS area. Blowing snow is possibility as well in these areas.

Further east across west central Missouri and into the St Louis area, snowfall amounts of 6-8 inches is expected in this area. The potential does exists southeast of St Louis and southeast of I 44 for snow changing over to sleet and freezing rain. As a result, 2-5 inches of snow is expected in southeast Missouri and into south central Illinois as snow will chnage over to sleet and freezing rain there. Areas north and west of I 44 and from St Louis north and west should be all snow at this point and it could be heavy at times. Further north and east, there will likely be some significant snows moving into the Chicago and Quad Cities areas by Thursday and through Thursday night. The potential is there for 4-8" of snow in Chicago and over 6 inches of snow for the Quad Cities Thursday through Thursday night as an area of low pressure develops over the south central United States and tracks northeast over the Ohio Valley. Areas north and west of this low will see the heaviest snow. The area better known as the comma head is where we typically see the heaviest snow amounts with winter storms and this one is no exception. By Friday morning, this moderate to heavy snow will shift north into the Green Bay area and across most of Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Several inches of snow is likely with this.

Meanwhile, as moisture moves into colder air in the northeast, we'll initially see freezing precipitation from the I 95 corridor north and west Friday morning. But this will quickly change over to rain for the major cities along I 95. The worse areas maybe from I 81 west into western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, extreme western virginia and especially into west central PA and parts of New York state. These areas are under winter storm watches for tomorrow night and Friday because of the potential of significant snow and or ice accumulation. But I want to stress that most areas along the I 95 corridor will be fine and mainly wet with this storm as ocean air will once again be entrained into this just like we saw on Tuesday. However if any problems do occur, most likely New York and Boston will experience this from Friday morning until midday. Then even both Bean town and the big apple will change over to rain.

This winter storm will continue to be monitored all night and another update will be issued later tonight.

Jim

[2001kx]

thanks,jim.
good read,keep up the good work.

[sertorius]

Thanks Jim!!! Great write up!! I hope we get some more mositure quick-radar already looking sick-also, we had vigra (sp) all day today-radar showed precip. but none hit the ground!! We now have about 1 inch here in Lawrence-hoping for 5-6 inches-I am a little south so maybe that will help!!

[Anonymous]

Rain even in Boston.................That is shocking. WOW what a mild storm for this time of year.......... beantown is pretty far north.......



-Jeb