Models teasing us in Deep South again?

[timNms]

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/4d/avn_850_4d.html

Unless I'm reading this wrong (and that's highly possible ) looks like the model is showing cold air moving this way. Wonder what it'll look like 3 days out from the event?

[Guest]

What timeframe are we looking at Tim? The models have been teasing us all winter - and NOTHING....

[timNms]

ticka, I think that was for the 8th. Hey, don't make me lie. I am clueless when it comes to reading these things LOL.

http://weather.unisys.com/index.html has links to some of the models.

[Guest]

Okay the first link you have is the model 4 days out...well looks more promising for you folks in Mississippi then us in Texas...

[timNms]

Possibly, but I wont' believe it until I see it LOL. You know how it's been the last few wks.

As far as precip, I don't know if there will be any. It really wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if it got warm and stayed warm.

[bfez1]

The models have failed us all winter here in the deep South. I'll believe it when I see it!

[Johnny]

I'm already seeing signs of Spring up around my place in Conroe. The trees are starting to bud, the jasmine is apperaing the trees and my wifes tulips just sprigged up out of the ground. I'm ready for some blackberry pickin' and severe weather season.

[Lindaloo]

The models have failed us all winter here in the deep South. I'll believe it when I see it!

I second that Bonnie!! Bring on the canes.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm not putting any trust in the models because they have let us down so much this season. If it comes it comes but if not bring on severe weather season! We'll be rockin and rollin tonight with all the rain and storms.

[vbhoutex]

Yep, you are right Tim. It shows two incursions, especially to your area on about the 8th and again on the 12th. As far as consistency this far out I need to say nothing else. We all know how the models have been this winter with cold air, winter precip and the South!!!LOUSY!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Can any1 tell me what this map means????? whats a speghetti map? this is the 12z run and is very similar to the 00z from last nite! close too--96 hrs

[timNms]

You got that right, David. I wonder if some snow nazi somewhere programed the models to tease the south with fanthom snow storms and arctic air 10 days out every week or so? LOL

[Lindaloo]

You got that right, David. I wonder if some snow nazi somewhere programed the models to tease the south with fanthom snow storms and arctic air 10 days out every week or so? LOL

It was HD.

[PTrackerLA]

Here is an excerpt from the NWS Lake Charles discussion:

EXTENDED...MRF SHOWING ARCTIC AIR SPILLING SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THRU ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH HEADS DUE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY...WHERE A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER NEXT WEEK AS THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OVER THE GULF. PERIODS OF COLD RAIN
NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN JET...WITH
OVERRUNNING RAINS.

We'll have the precip in place, we just need the temperatures to be colder than what they are progging now. Think snow or ice or sleet or whatever.

[timNms]

ROTF, Linda. Poor HD catches it during the winter, huh?

[Stormsfury]

Can any1 tell me what this map means????? whats a speghetti map? this is the 12z run and is very similar to the 00z from last nite! close too--96 hrs

Basically speaking, the spaghetti plots is an AVERAGE of many different runs (looks like the GFS ensembles) and based on ALL the outputs, categorial chances of SNOW ... and based on this map, Tallahassee, and Charleston on FEB 8th have a 40-50% chance of snowfall BASED on that map (at face value), and it IS within 4 days ... interesting.

SF