Mesoscale Discussion #86 Concerning Ohio Valley Region

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Mesoscale Discussion 86


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 051616Z - 052215Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. HOURLY LIQUID
ACCUMULATION RATES BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.10 IN. WILL BE LIKELY AS MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS NWD INTO NRN KY/SERN IND...SRN/CENTRAL
OHIO...WRN WV AND FAR WRN PA. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25
IN. OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE OVER SERN IND SRN OHIO/WRN WV WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AOB FREEZING THROUGH
MOST OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EVENT. FARTHER NORTH FROM CENTRAL
OHIO INTO WRN PA/FAR NRN WV...A MIX OF SLEET AND MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPES
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 05/19Z AND 05/22Z.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND PIT INDICATED A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700 MB. THUS...VERY STRONG WAA TO THIS POINT HAS GONE INTO
SATURATING THIS LAYER. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAIN MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BAND OVER SRN KY/TN...WHERE LOW LEVELS HAVE
BECOME SATURATED...WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO FAR NRN KY/SRN OH/IND AND
WRN WV. STRENGTH OF 850-700 MB WIND FIELDS BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KTS
EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S WILL AID IN CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
ELEVATED 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. THIS ISOTHERM SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
IND INTO FAR SWRN PA BY 06/00Z. INITIALLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
WILL SUPPORT SOME EVAPORATION OF PRECIPITATION AND A MIX OF SLEET
AND LIGHT FZRA INITIALLY OVER FAR NRN KY/SERN IND AND SRN OH/WRN
WV...BUT AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER DEEPENS AND LOW LEVELS
SATURATE...FZRA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OVER THIS AREA.
BENEATH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER...STRONG 700-600
MB WAA/VERTICAL MOTION WILL EXIST IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH PROFILE. THIS WILL AID IN MODERATE SLEET/SNOW MIX FROM
ECENTRAL IND INTO SWRN PA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 02/05/2004


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...


Very Interesting.... will need to watch soundings in WV, S PA,and MD as moisture comes in.... MD seems to show sig icing for Sothern Ohio and Western West Virginia... will watch closely...

borrowed and credit given to http://www.spc.noaa.gov

website: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0086.html