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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST THU FEB 5 2004
.DISCUSSION...
WILL PREFACE THE DISCUSSION BY SAYING THIS HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY
CHALLENGING EVENT...AND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND PRESENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST ISSUES. FOR SAKE OF BREVITY...IN A NUT SHELL WE WILL
BE CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AFFECTING THAT AREA.
WILL CONVERTING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE ESSENTIALLY OVER...AND WILL
CONTINE THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE SNOW WILL PERSIST AND BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE
DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT. MY INITIAL
THOUGHTS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE NORTH (THE AREA REMAINING IN
THE WINTER STORM WATCH) COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN
THE ADVISORY AREA COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WOULD LIKELY SEE AN INCH OR LESS.
THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WIND POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA (AS MENTIONED EARLIER) LATE
TONIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WE FEEL THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND TO SOME EXTENT A BIT LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...THERE IS NO NEED TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BY
ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR SAID PHENOMENA...AND WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR
THE EARLY AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
OTHERWISE...THE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD. FEEL THAT BECAUSE OF
THE RENEWED SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
AREAS WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BACK AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...HAVE DECIDED TO UP THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SNOW TO SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY BASED ON NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...AND FEEL
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY SHOULD STILL SUFFICE. LOOKS LIKE
TUESDAY WOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AGAIN...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LARGE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...MORE OF A NUISANCE AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING WHAT WE'VE BEEN
THROUGH.
THE SNOW DEPTH RECORD FOR OMAHA WAS BROKEN THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN
WITH 24 INCHES ON THE GROUND AT NOON AT EPPLEY ...AND WILL LIKELY FLIRT
WITH THE ALL TIME RECORD OF 27 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS EVENT WINDS
DOWN. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO WASHINGTON
COUNTIES TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAUNDERS...DOUGLAS AND SARPY
COUNTIES TONIGHT.
.IA...WINTER STORM FOR MONONA...HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MILLS...MONTGOMERY AND PAGE
COUNTIES TONIGHT.
&&
$$And, yes the NWS is going to replace the WInter Storm Warning for areas south of the Platte River in Nebraska, including the Omaha/Council BLuffs metro, and south of I-80 in Iowa. A warning continues for areas to the north of that line.
