00z ETA says: Major Icestorm W of DCA-BWI

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00z ETA says: Major Icestorm W of DCA-BWI

#1 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:19 pm

The new ETA is suggesting that despite this storm inevitably featuring a changeover to rain, it won't be until after a MAJOR ICESTORM for the western and northern suburbs of the DC/Balt metro area.

ETA 2m temps are still below freezing at 12z tomorrow (7AM) west of a line from BWI-DCA-slightly west of EZF. For areas such as Winchester, this is a truly crippling event with over an inch of ZR and temps in the 20's.
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ColdFront77

#2 Postby ColdFront77 » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:24 pm

I see EZF is Fredericksburg, Virginia (Shannon Airport).

I'll saw an accumulation of sleet and freezing rain in nearly 12 hours could lead to chaos on the roads the Fredericksburg, VA area.
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Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:26 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:I see EZF is Fredericksburg, Virginia (Shannon Airport).

I'll saw an accumulation of sleet and freezing rain in nearly 12 hours could lead to chaos on the roads the Fredericksburg, VA area.

It's a close call for Fredericksburg, they may be at 34 or 35F or so by the rush hour tomorrow. But wow... here at IAD we see nearly an inch before going above freezing... and Hagerstown MD appears to remain at or below freezing all day with over 1.50" QPF.
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:29 pm

NWS doesn't have us go over to plain rain until 8am tomorrow morning. We already have about a quarter-inch of ice from sleet balls and frzra accretion as of 922pm tonight here in Dale City/Woodbridge.

WOW WOW WOW WOW.

I am very, very glad I have about 25 heavy blankets in my house because I am gonna need 'em, plain heavy rain or not.

Tomorrow morning will be a very cool time for an epic jebwalk!!!! :)



-Jeb
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Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:31 pm

We are also oscillating back and forth between these two precipitation types, freezing rain and sleet. It's sleet again right now.



-Jeb
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:35 pm

brettjrob wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:I see EZF is Fredericksburg, Virginia (Shannon Airport).

I'll saw an accumulation of sleet and freezing rain in nearly 12 hours could lead to chaos on the roads the Fredericksburg, VA area.

It's a close call for Fredericksburg, they may be at 34 or 35F or so by the rush hour tomorrow. But wow... here at IAD we see nearly an inch before going above freezing... and Hagerstown MD appears to remain at or below freezing all day with over 1.50" QPF.




Hagerstown MD with an inch and a half of qpf in the form of freezing rain brings SE Canada 1998 to mind.

Let's refresh our memories of this event. Please see this page on my website.


-Jeb
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 9:46 pm

We just fell to 28 degrees, DP of 26 degrees. Sleet continues to cascade down upon our region. The sleet balls and ice layer is getting thicker.


Not the best night to go driving................




-Jeb
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#8 Postby Craig286 » Thu Feb 05, 2004 10:16 pm

Heavy sleet at EZF now at 29.4F


Mighty icy outside :D
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Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Thu Feb 05, 2004 10:40 pm

I just e-mailed Gary Gray to ask his thoughts on the situation and he seems to believe that we will see some hefty QPF before getting above freezing tomorrow. He also mentioned that although we may see heavy ZR for a prolonged period overnight, the fact that it is heavy may prevent it from fully accumulating on trees and powerlines, and also pointed out that with temps around 30F and probably more like 31-32F by rush hour, any roads that have been salted should be okay. So basically not a crippling event, but still probably more than enough to warrant a WSW from DCA/BWI west, which LWX did not do with their evening update.
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#10 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Feb 06, 2004 7:54 am

I can verify heavy ice accumulations in Fredericksburg. Everything is coated except main roads. Even the grass is coated with icicles! I would say 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations of ice on top of sleet with freezing rain continuing. It is considerably more ice than NWS lead us to expect.
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Fri Feb 06, 2004 2:47 pm

Well, looks like the ETA was a bit overdone with the liquid amounts, but the general theme of a significant icestorm for the western suburbs played out nicely. I received around half an inch of ice this morning before turning to rain at 9AM or so. I'm willing to bet most people west of the cities had more than enough ice to qualify for a WSW although only the areas from the Blue Ridge west actually had one.

Here are my pics of the ice:

http://community.webshots.com/album/116496862AIvzCB?712
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#12 Postby JQ Public » Fri Feb 06, 2004 7:05 pm

I assume that since y'all aren't posting anymore about your conditions you have either lost power or are now just seeing rain!? I hope for the latter...we had an aweful icestorm last season and some dind't get power back for two weeks +!!!!!
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#13 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Feb 06, 2004 7:15 pm

Still plenty of ice here. Freezing rain with heavy accumulations 30.7 degrees. Nothing has changed over the past few hours thats all.
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Anonymous

#14 Postby Anonymous » Fri Feb 06, 2004 7:17 pm

Rain turning back to freezing rain as we fall to 31 degrees. Here we go again just like last night.




-Jeb
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#15 Postby weatherfan » Fri Feb 06, 2004 8:24 pm

It turns out that the Eta was it all that far off with the truth with that major ice storm call west and North of the i-95 citys.As some places in the wester and Northen seaction saw hafe inch to as much as a inch of ice today.Along the i-95 it was more of ice to rain event.With much lesser amounts.
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Anonymous

#16 Postby Anonymous » Fri Feb 06, 2004 8:30 pm

JQ Public wrote:I assume that since y'all aren't posting anymore about your conditions you have either lost power or are now just seeing rain!? I hope for the latter...we had an aweful icestorm last season and some dind't get power back for two weeks +!!!!!

No power loss here... we changed to rain mid-morning today and haven't gone back below freezing since... but the temps have hovered at 33-34F all day long so it's been close. Only just in the past hour or two has the ice begun to melt off the trees and powerlines. This wasn't a severe ice storm by any means, but we did have about a half inch of ice before the changeover. The main reason it didn't cause as many problems as one might expect is because it was a heavy ZR that fell over a short period of time, which didn't allow it to accumulate efficiently on trees and powerlines. I guess the worst ice storms are the ones that feature light to moderate ZR over a long period of time.

I for one enjoyed this event, as it got me out of school and was icier than expected. This winter won't be too bad at all if we can get just one more significant snowfall out of it.
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