Omaha Snow: Round Four

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Omaha Snow: Round Four

#1 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 12:21 pm

:crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

Yes, another round of snow is on the horizon. Local forecasts show snow moving in Sunday night into Monday morning. Looking at the models, =<4" is possible with this system. We'll have to see how errant the models are. Needless to say, they didn't do too shabby with our last storm. We just had a few local mets going above and beyond, then getting scared, and flopping their forecasts.

In any event, this next snowfall will threaten our all-time record for snowdepth. Eppley Field measured 26" earlier today... 1" shy of the record.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ATTM OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH AN INCREASE OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD THE MAIN ENERGY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS HAVE USED A BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ETA SOLUTION. MODELS SHOW GOOD MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING. MAJOR CONCERN WITH SYSTEM IS ON SET OF PRECIPITATION...MESO ETA SOUNDINGS SHOWS MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH DRY MID LEVELS SUNDAY AND WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MAIN CONCERN IS PCPN EVENT FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MAY LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, WITH GENLY 1-3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE. THIS QUICK SHOT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER BELOW 700 MB. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST LAYER WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST FLURRIES. SO HAVE FLURRIES MENTIONED FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.


Some of the models indicate the best chance for snowfall of 4-8" will be near and just south of Lincoln, Nebraska. Of course, any change in the storm's track can provide Omaha will another good blanket of snow. Regardless, it appears that with each snowstorm we get... less and less snow falls.

...and if >31" of snow fell in two weeks, from 3 seperate snowfalls isn't enough, and with the few inches we get from this round...

ONE MORE SNOW THREAT MID WEEK: FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MID PART OF THE WEEK, AND WILL NEED TO MENTION CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND EVEN CLOSES THE 500 MB LOW OFF AS IT MOVES OUT OF SERN NE.


Woo-hoo! I think I might start selling this snow on eBay. :D

Code: Select all

.SUNDAY...PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...
THEN A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...
THEN SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND
1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 15. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#2 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Feb 07, 2004 12:54 pm

My Lord! Omaha is getting Pounded! :D
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#3 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 12:56 pm

Yup... thankfully this system isn't as impressive as the last three. Hopefully it'll stay that way.

IAZ069-NEZ052-053-067-072145-
CASS-DOUGLAS-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SARPY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVUE...COUNCIL BLUFFS...OMAHA
1036 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2004

<clip>

.SUNDAY...PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...
THEN A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION
AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING...
THEN SCATTERED FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND
1 INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 15. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#4 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:04 pm

I hope you get 19 inches! lol
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#5 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:08 pm

:eek: Shhh... don't say that!

(That's what AirmaN wants :D )
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#6 Postby Chris the Weather Man » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:18 pm

LoL, Is it too much for ya?
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:24 pm

I'll be glad to dig ya out of all that snow!!!


-Jeb
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:28 pm

Jeb... I think you could easily get a job in Omaha! It's not too bad here really. It gets old driving in the snow all the time, but it could be worse. I think it's the cold that's bugging me more now.
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:35 pm

If I lived in Omaha.............You would NEVER hear me say I am tired of snow or cold :)

You would arise in the morning and see me digging snow, straining to pile it as high as possible on the NORTH side of sunlight-blocking objects. After a healthy 8 to 12 hours shoveling the snow for the day, you would see me taking a nice long snowy jebwalk while blasting songs on my CD headphones. The jebwalk would tend to be anywhere from 5 to 12 miles long, then I take a break for some veggies and large amounts of warm water, then its back out to shovel more snow.

All the Omahans would look out their windows and say, "There's Jeb, digging all that snow! :)".


Yeah I'd be saying BRING IT!! BRING IT!!

In the meantime here in Woodbridge VA we are sunny with 45 degrees, looking for 50 to 54 degrees. It's anything but winter here for the next 5 days or so.



-Jeb
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#10 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 1:42 pm

...hmmm... Us Omahans may need to start a collection. Not only you'd shovel our snow, but it would be a fine source of entertainment for us!
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 7:00 pm

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD BE INTERESTING AROUND HERE!

12Z UCAR MM5 has the snow starting right after dark Sunday evening and snowing all night into Monday with 2-4 inches of total storm snowfall locally. Dynamics and a jet streak couplet would support heavy bursts of snowfall Sunday evening.

The 12Z Canadian model indicates convection across Nebraska on Sunday into Iowa and Minnesota late Sunday with a fast moving deepening upper low. Quite interesting. Much faster than the UCAR MM5 as well. For us, inch of snow tops (dry storm for us except along convective line).

The new 18Z ETA is similar to the Canadian: faster, drier, more northerly track and lift, chance of elevated thunderstorms/convection tomorrow. Very little precip here as well except along convective line.

The 12Z GFS is kind of a mixture of everything. 2-4 inches of snowfall locally.
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#12 Postby Anonymous » Sat Feb 07, 2004 7:09 pm

Would you mind donating just one of your plentiful snowstorms here to N VA?

PLEASE? :D


-Jeb
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Sat Feb 07, 2004 7:18 pm

If I could... I would! Trust me... I really would! :D
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#14 Postby senorpepr » Sun Feb 08, 2004 7:50 am

Code: Select all

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE 2 TO
3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS...WITH PROBABLY
LESS THAN 1 INCH NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Sun Feb 08, 2004 7:57 am

With all the sunshine yesterday, we had a little melting going on. The roads are pretty much clear expect for the country roads and some of the side-streets.

Here's the latest snowdepths...
Eppley Field: 24"
Offutt AFB: 19"

We might come close to that record of 27" tonight...
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#16 Postby wx247 » Sun Feb 08, 2004 9:00 am

Keep that snow up north please. Thank you!

;)
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Sun Feb 08, 2004 10:19 am

Latest forecasts show this system being less and less impressive. NWS is calling for 1-3" whereas local mets are saying a dusting to 1". Local TAFS have some -SN (light snow) in them prefaced with -FZDZ (light freezing drizzle). We'll see.
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#18 Postby senorpepr » Sun Feb 08, 2004 7:12 pm

Well... Eppley just reported light snow with a snowdepth of 23".
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#19 Postby David » Sun Feb 08, 2004 8:12 pm

I thought Omaha was done? ?:P
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#20 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Feb 08, 2004 8:16 pm

Isn't there a winter wx advisory up there? :-?
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